ATL: NATE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[gatorcane]

I just want to add that if the ECMF does not shift west (start running in an hour or so) - this will be one of the largest differences in track that I have ever seen at Day 5. Who will prevail?!

Usually just go inbetween the GFS and ECMWF. Meaning GFS may shift some east and Euro west meeting in the middle.

[chris_fit]

I just want to add that if the ECMF does not shift west (start running in an hour or so) - this will be one of the largest differences in track that I have ever seen at Day 5. Who will prevail?!

Usually just go inbetween the GFS and ECMWF. Meaning GFS may shift some east and Euro west meeting in the middle.

Perhaps more like 20% more West for the EURO and 80% more East for the GFS - to get the possible actual forecast track

[GCANE]

Forecast when this gets in the GOM looks extremely juiced.
Air column saturated water to stratosphere.
Wide-open in-the-clear 355K PV.

[northjaxpro]

I think that whatever evolves of the disturbance currently in the Florida Straits may play a big role in the future track of TD 16. GFS develops our current disturbance in the Florida Straits and moves it west-northwest across the South Florida into the Gulf of Mexico just ahead of TD 16. I think this may have a significant factor in the future path of TD 16. GFS in this recent run shows that the disturbance will track ahead of TD 16 as td16 will move out of the Caribbean Friday and moves towards the Louisiana coast. It will be interesting to see how all this plays out.

[Macrocane]

Regardless intensity this thing can cause catastrophic flooding in Central America, not only the core of 16 but the entire gyre will pull huge amounts of moisture from the Pacific.

[AutoPenalti]

I could see a mix of Euro track with GFS intensity.

Seems to be organizing much quicker than anticipated by the operationals.

[Pearl River]

Although the HWRF is not finished running, it appears it wants to send 16 into the Yucatan, clipping it on the NE corner.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf&region=16L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2017100412&fh=36&xpos=0&ypos=483

[Aric Dunn]

Should begin to lift more northerly as it starts to interact with that weak low in the NW carrib should just scape along the central American coast.

[gatorcane]

GFS has another (even larger) Western Caribbean system in the long-range 12-14 days from now. See global models thread. Buckle up everybody.

[AW 1880]

I've been lurking for the past couple of months, but finally registered. I'm headed for Playa Del Carmen. I'll be tracking this thread and potentially posting updates from the Yucatan Peninsula.

On an unrelated note, I wanted to thank the forum for all of the posts on Irma and Harvey. Without Storm2k, I wouldn't have experienced the Blue Shed.

[Alyono]

pressure looks to be 1008mb and winds appear around 25 kts based upon the preliminary recon data

Not as strong as thought. May not mean anything for Nicaragua, however

[stormreader]

can ignore GFS and CMC unless Ophelia actually forms tomorrow in the Gulf

Will it actually have to "form" or will it in any case help weaken the high pressure further west along the northern gulf coast.

[GCANE]

Lots of west- wind meaurements from Recon and in-the-clear SFMR above 35 knots.

[Alyono]

Lots of west- wind meaurements from Recon and in-the-clear SFMR above 35 knots.

those winds are beyond invalid. They are occurring during a descent and they are from about 25,000 ft above the surface

[stormreader]

I just want to add that if the ECMF does not shift west (start running in an hour or so) - this will be one of the largest differences in track that I have ever seen at Day 5. Who will prevail?!

Usually just go inbetween the GFS and ECMWF. Meaning GFS may shift some east and Euro west meeting in the middle.

Perhaps more like 20% more West for the EURO and 80% more East for the GFS - to get the possible actual forecast track

Just splitting the difference might not be the answer this time. GFS seems to be relying on the lower pressure near the Straits and having it lead the way for our Caribbean system. Other models seems to be totally discounting this and allowing for stronger pressures along the north central gulf coast with our system being shifted off to the NE and finding a weakness there. Might not be a reconciliation, could be one forecast will tend to prevail over the other.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 041703
AF309 01DDA INVEST HDOB 26 20171004
165530 1213N 08232W 9766 00277 0083 +226 +225 322011 012 021 002 01
165600 1212N 08232W 9770 00276 //// +225 //// 320013 014 024 001 01
165630 1210N 08233W 9772 00276 //// +223 //// 308014 015 017 004 05
165700 1209N 08232W 9765 00280 //// +222 //// 311014 014 019 002 01
165730 1209N 08231W 9772 00275 0084 +225 +222 304013 014 023 001 03
165800 1208N 08229W 9768 00276 0083 +225 +223 302015 015 021 001 01
165830 1208N 08227W 9770 00275 0083 +228 +226 299013 015 021 002 01
165900 1207N 08226W 9768 00276 0081 +229 +225 289014 015 024 002 00
165930 1207N 08224W 9767 00276 //// +223 //// 276017 017 024 002 01
170000 1206N 08222W 9772 00271 //// +219 //// 274015 018 023 003 01
170030 1206N 08221W 9766 00276 //// +224 //// 274014 015 024 001 01
170100 1205N 08219W 9768 00274 0080 +229 +222 261017 018 023 001 00
170130 1205N 08218W 9770 00273 0080 +230 +220 257018 018 022 002 00
170200 1204N 08216W 9769 00274 0080 +230 +219 259019 019 024 001 00
170230 1203N 08214W 9770 00275 0082 +230 +222 257020 020 023 001 00
170300 1203N 08213W 9770 00275 0082 +229 +225 258020 020 024 001 00
170330 1202N 08211W 9772 00274 0083 +223 //// 261019 020 027 003 01
170400 1201N 08210W 9772 00275 0084 +230 +223 247018 019 022 000 00
170430 1200N 08208W 9769 00277 0083 +230 +223 243017 017 022 000 00
170500 1200N 08207W 9772 00275 0084 +231 +223 240018 018 021 001 00
$$
;

Flight already in the system.

[Shell Mound]

Although the HWRF is not finished running, it appears it wants to send 16 into the Yucatan, clipping it on the NE corner.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf&region=16L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2017100412&fh=36&xpos=0&ypos=483

It also suggests the possibility of rapid intensification over the western Caribbean and southern Gulf of Mexico, should the system only clip Nicaragua and the Yucatán Peninsula. The 12Z HWRF brings the system to 83 knots as it nears the Yucatán, then shows re-intensification into a potential major hurricane over the Gulf Loop Current. The pressure dips to 963 mb by day four (12Z/07 Oct), as can be seen here. The HWRF's intensity estimate could well be accurate if it were to correctly resolve the location of the low. If the system were to interact minimally with land, then the upper-end forecast could certainly verify. Do not preclude a major hurricane at some point, especially over the western Caribbean and southern Gulf. EDIT: By 18Z/07 Oct, the pressure is down to 957 mb and the winds are up to 94 knots, just below Category-3 status. Landfall occurs as a 100-knot Category-3 hurricane.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 041714
AF309 01DDA INVEST HDOB 27 20171004
170530 1159N 08205W 9769 00277 0085 +230 +222 236017 018 022 000 00
170600 1158N 08204W 9769 00279 0085 +233 +220 230017 017 021 000 00
170630 1157N 08202W 9770 00277 0085 +231 +219 227016 017 022 001 00
170700 1157N 08201W 9770 00279 0086 +230 +219 225017 018 022 001 03
170730 1156N 08159W 9766 00281 0086 +230 +218 220017 018 /// /// 03
170800 1157N 08158W 9772 00279 0087 +230 +217 213016 017 023 002 00
170830 1158N 08157W 9766 00284 0088 +227 +223 203015 016 023 002 00
170900 1200N 08155W 9770 00279 //// +227 //// 192013 014 023 002 01
170930 1201N 08154W 9773 00279 //// +224 //// 183014 015 023 002 01
171000 1202N 08154W 9770 00281 //// +221 //// 169015 015 021 004 05
171030 1204N 08154W 9769 00281 //// +220 //// 173015 015 022 002 01
171100 1206N 08154W 9772 00280 0089 +223 +220 166014 014 022 002 01
171130 1207N 08154W 9770 00280 0088 +224 +221 164015 015 023 001 01
171200 1209N 08154W 9772 00280 0088 +225 +221 166016 017 022 002 00
171230 1211N 08154W 9772 00277 0087 +225 +220 165017 018 023 000 00
171300 1212N 08154W 9769 00281 0088 +226 +220 166018 018 024 000 00
171330 1214N 08154W 9770 00280 0088 +227 +223 164018 018 022 000 00
171400 1216N 08154W 9767 00282 0088 +229 +220 153019 020 022 000 03
171430 1217N 08154W 9770 00279 0087 +230 +222 145018 019 019 002 00
171500 1219N 08155W 9771 00280 0088 +230 +217 135017 018 023 000 03
$$
;

[Steve]

HWRF nearing LA Coast. Looks to hit MS.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=788

[bella_may]

It'll be interesting to see if the EURO joins the west trend. When does the Next run come out? I don't see this getting father west than NOLA but that's just my opinion