ATL: NATE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[Emmett_Brown]

12z Euro is very close to the official NHC track

[bella_may]

Anyone think the NHC will shift the track west a little on the next advisory?

[Stormcenter]

Fast moving strong hurricane, Opal comes to mind. NOT saying that will be the case here at all.

[Stormcenter]

Yes probably 50 miles or so to the west. IMO

Anyone think the NHC will shift the track west a little on the next advisory?

[Steve]

About 50 miles farther west but more importantly, much stronger. Which seems to be a scary trend today with all the models

Track looks almost identical to Kate in 1985 when in the Gulf.

Maybe landfall wise, but Kate's was a sharp parabolic track vs. a NW/N/NE type movement. I don't disagree with what the European is doing, but I think the NAVGEM/HWRF solutions seem the most realistic from 4/4.5 days out. European is out on its own toward Bay County whereas GFS and HMON seem to be a little far west over to Terrebonnne/St. Mary Parishes, LA. I like east of the LA/MS line for now.

[Ken711]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/915645871139774467

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 041834
AF309 01DDA INVEST HDOB 35 20171004
182530 1157N 08200W 9772 00273 0081 +235 +222 197011 011 016 002 00
182600 1158N 08201W 9769 00274 0080 +234 +219 204012 013 016 001 00
182630 1159N 08202W 9772 00273 0080 +235 +218 207014 014 018 001 00
182700 1200N 08204W 9769 00273 0078 +234 +217 212013 014 018 001 00
182730 1201N 08205W 9775 00268 0078 +229 +221 214014 015 019 003 00
182800 1203N 08206W 9766 00275 0079 +223 +219 221014 015 022 007 01
182830 1204N 08207W 9775 00267 0081 +218 //// 209012 013 025 017 05
182900 1205N 08208W 9762 00279 0079 +226 +226 210013 014 022 008 00
182930 1206N 08209W 9773 00267 0076 +230 +226 213012 013 016 001 00
183000 1207N 08210W 9772 00269 0076 +231 +223 212013 013 017 001 00
183030 1208N 08211W 9770 00268 0074 +231 +223 209013 014 017 001 00
183100 1209N 08213W 9770 00268 0074 +230 +222 208014 014 018 000 00
183130 1210N 08214W 9768 00269 0073 +229 +225 207013 013 019 001 00
183200 1212N 08215W 9770 00267 //// +222 //// 212012 014 022 004 01
183230 1213N 08216W 9767 00269 0075 +223 //// 199009 012 030 012 05
183300 1214N 08217W 9762 00269 0072 +220 +220 187007 008 033 024 00
183330 1215N 08218W 9774 00260 //// +226 //// 198004 006 019 003 05
183400 1215N 08220W 9770 00264 //// +228 //// 214003 004 018 003 01
183430 1216N 08221W 9772 00263 //// +226 //// 166005 007 018 003 05
183500 1217N 08222W 9765 00269 //// +229 //// 153008 008 013 002 01
$$
;

33 kt SFMR in a heavier rain band - just under storm status.

[Alyono]

About 50 miles farther west but more importantly, much stronger. Which seems to be a scary trend today with all the models

Track looks almost identical to Kate in 1985 when in the Gulf.

Maybe landfall wise, but Kate's was a sharp parabolic track vs. a NW/N/NE type movement. I don't disagree with what the European is doing, but I think the NAVGEM/HWRF solutions seem the most realistic from 4/4.5 days out. European is out on its own toward Bay County whereas GFS and HMON seem to be a little far west over to Terrebonnne/St. Mary Parishes, LA. I like east of the LA/MS line for now.

the EC is the most reasonable. It does not have the phantom Ophelia

[DESTRUCTION5]

Euro has a pretty powerful cold front blowing thru the gulf coast at 168. Wow.

[stormlover2013]

that's one of the difference in the models, how strong will this front be??? the weaker the front the more west the system will go

[Stormcenter]

I think MS/AL looks like a good place to bet a penny on where TD#16 goes.

[AFWeather]

12z Euro is very close to the official NHC track

It is... but, as it's a shift west relative to the previous run, I'd expect a west shift for NHC at 5 PM. Nothing huge. I'd also think they could nudge up max intensity to 75 or 80 kt, but the way the NHC forecast points line up for the 5 PM update may not work out temporally. If they speed up movement similar to this latest 12Z ECMWF, it may be inland/weakening at 08/18Z.

EDIT: Fun with dates and times... new run is SLOWER than before, by quite a bit. So, 75-80 kt could certainly be forecast for 08/18Z.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 041844
AF309 01DDA INVEST HDOB 36 20171004
183530 1219N 08222W 9774 00260 0069 +230 +229 119011 013 018 001 01
183600 1220N 08222W 9780 00257 0068 +231 +230 106017 018 022 001 01
183630 1222N 08222W 9769 00264 0068 +236 +218 100020 022 022 002 00
183700 1223N 08222W 9770 00265 0069 +238 +209 101023 024 024 002 00
183730 1225N 08222W 9770 00264 0069 +232 +215 099024 024 025 000 00
183800 1227N 08222W 9773 00262 0070 +227 +219 101024 025 022 002 00
183830 1228N 08222W 9769 00265 0070 +228 +218 104023 024 025 001 00
183900 1230N 08222W 9768 00267 0070 +230 +218 099023 024 023 001 00
183930 1231N 08222W 9772 00264 0071 +229 +222 101025 025 026 004 00
184000 1233N 08222W 9771 00264 0072 +225 //// 101027 028 027 005 01
184030 1235N 08222W 9770 00265 0071 +227 //// 103025 026 027 003 01
184100 1236N 08222W 9770 00265 0072 +229 +225 105026 027 026 000 00
184130 1238N 08222W 9769 00268 0072 +232 +220 107027 028 026 002 00
184200 1239N 08222W 9770 00268 0072 +232 +219 105028 029 027 003 00
184230 1241N 08221W 9772 00264 0072 +232 +223 106030 030 027 003 00
184300 1243N 08221W 9768 00269 0074 +230 +228 111030 030 030 003 00
184330 1244N 08221W 9769 00269 0073 +234 +228 110030 031 030 001 00
184400 1246N 08221W 9772 00267 0074 +235 +225 106030 031 031 001 00
184430 1247N 08221W 9767 00271 0074 +237 +216 105031 032 029 002 03
184500 1249N 08221W 9770 00269 0074 +236 +223 106030 031 029 001 00
$$
;

[NDG]

12z Euro is very close to the official NHC track

It is... but, as it's a shift west relative to the previous run, I'd expect a west shift for NHC at 5 PM. Nothing huge. I'd also think they could nudge up max intensity to 75 or 80 kt, but the way the NHC forecast points line up for the 5 PM update may not work out temporally. If they speed up movement similar to this latest 12Z ECMWF, it may be inland/weakening at 08/18Z.

12z Euro is actually slower than previous runs, with landfall Monday morning.

[AFWeather]

12z Euro is very close to the official NHC track

It is... but, as it's a shift west relative to the previous run, I'd expect a west shift for NHC at 5 PM. Nothing huge. I'd also think they could nudge up max intensity to 75 or 80 kt, but the way the NHC forecast points line up for the 5 PM update may not work out temporally. If they speed up movement similar to this latest 12Z ECMWF, it may be inland/weakening at 08/18Z.

12z Euro is actually slower than previous runs, with landfall Monday morning.

Yep, noticed right after I posted. Fail!!

[Wakeknight]

12z Euro is very close to the official NHC track

It is... but, as it's a shift west relative to the previous run, I'd expect a west shift for NHC at 5 PM. Nothing huge. I'd also think they could nudge up max intensity to 75 or 80 kt, but the way the NHC forecast points line up for the 5 PM update may not work out temporally. If they speed up movement similar to this latest 12Z ECMWF, it may be inland/weakening at 08/18Z.

EDIT: Fun with dates and times... new run is SLOWER than before, by quite a bit. So, 75-80 kt could certainly be forecast for 08/18Z.

This has always bugged me. Wouldn't it be wise to include an intermediate forecast point for landfall intensity?

[ava_ati]

12z Euro is very close to the official NHC track

It is... but, as it's a shift west relative to the previous run, I'd expect a west shift for NHC at 5 PM. Nothing huge. I'd also think they could nudge up max intensity to 75 or 80 kt, but the way the NHC forecast points line up for the 5 PM update may not work out temporally. If they speed up movement similar to this latest 12Z ECMWF, it may be inland/weakening at 08/18Z.

It will be interesting if the 18z models hold their ground or shift east, GFS has a generally weaker front... Honestly though, just like with Irma's track not being narrowed down until she finished her turn North, I don't think we will narrow this one down until it starts picking up forward momentum, which doesn't seem to happen until it passes the Yucatan

[gatorcane]

Significant diff with the 12Z Euro at hour 168 with the GFS. Look how strong the short-wave trough is over the Eastern US / Great Lakes on the Euro. Should TD 16 take longer to reach the Gulf than the models show and become even more vertically stacked, that would suggest a NE turn further south in the Gulf towards peninsula Florida.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 041854
AF309 01DDA INVEST HDOB 37 20171004
184530 1251N 08221W 9772 00267 0074 +238 +226 105031 032 028 003 00
184600 1252N 08221W 9774 00267 0074 +238 +226 103030 032 028 003 00
184630 1254N 08221W 9770 00270 0075 +236 +228 103030 031 028 003 00
184700 1255N 08221W 9762 00277 0075 +238 +229 104029 031 029 003 00
184730 1257N 08221W 9776 00264 0075 +241 +224 100028 029 027 002 00
184800 1259N 08221W 9767 00273 0075 +240 +223 100026 028 027 002 00
184830 1300N 08221W 9770 00270 0076 +240 +227 097024 026 024 003 00
184900 1302N 08221W 9765 00274 0075 +240 +224 098024 026 024 003 00
184930 1303N 08221W 9767 00273 0075 +240 +227 101023 025 023 004 00
185000 1305N 08221W 9769 00269 0074 +238 +227 104022 024 024 003 00
185030 1306N 08221W 9768 00271 0075 +238 +227 101023 025 023 004 00
185100 1308N 08221W 9766 00274 0075 +235 +229 105020 023 023 004 00
185130 1310N 08221W 9772 00268 0075 +235 +230 105020 021 025 003 00
185200 1311N 08221W 9767 00270 0075 +233 +231 104019 020 027 003 00
185230 1313N 08221W 9776 00263 0076 +231 //// 090020 020 026 006 01
185300 1314N 08221W 9768 00271 0076 +230 +230 095022 023 027 008 00
185330 1316N 08221W 9773 00268 0078 +225 //// 094027 030 027 008 01
185400 1317N 08221W 9769 00271 0078 +218 //// 097029 030 033 007 05
185430 1319N 08221W 9770 00269 0079 +221 //// 094030 031 028 005 01
185500 1321N 08221W 9748 00290 //// +228 //// 095032 033 028 000 01
$$
;

[Aric Dunn]

that sharp north then NW motion is do the the interaction with that circ in the NW carrib now that is moving wsw... should be intersting how much interaction there is as that circ should die off in the next 36 hours.