ATL: NATE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[chaser1]

I think MS/AL looks like a good place to bet a penny on where TD#16 goes.

My penny is on Panama City/Apalachicola Fl. area.

HOWEVER......, I really am beginning to think that there's a real possibility that all models are possibly overplaying the slight weakness to the north of T.D. 16 and underplaying the strength of the mid level ridging to its northwest. I guess what i'm saying here is that i'm not really seeing an obvious reason why T.D. 16 at its present very low latitude might not simply plow WNW 'ward during the next 48 hours which would be far different than a brief "grazing" land interaction. The 200mb - 500mb steering flow down there seems to indicate a pretty strong flow to the southwest emanating out of the Northern Gulf. Where exactly (beyond climo) is the near term steering mechanism that models are seeing that would necessitate an overall N.W. to NNW motion (I wouldn't suspect it would be the low level flow??)

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 041904
AF309 01DDA INVEST HDOB 38 20171004
185530 1322N 08221W 9774 00268 0078 +234 +226 100034 036 027 001 00
185600 1324N 08221W 9770 00270 0077 +235 +227 097033 034 029 001 00
185630 1326N 08221W 9767 00276 0079 +237 +219 102036 037 031 000 00
185700 1328N 08221W 9765 00277 0079 +239 +221 110035 037 029 001 00
185730 1330N 08221W 9764 00279 0079 +240 +223 110032 034 026 001 00
185800 1332N 08221W 9766 00277 0078 +241 +222 112031 032 024 001 00
185830 1333N 08221W 9767 00277 0079 +243 +218 117027 031 022 001 00
185900 1335N 08221W 9766 00277 0079 +242 +215 123027 028 020 001 03
185930 1337N 08220W 9764 00280 0080 +239 +219 125025 027 019 001 00
190000 1339N 08220W 9770 00273 0079 +237 +222 123023 024 020 002 00
190030 1341N 08219W 9766 00276 0079 +239 +221 121023 025 019 001 00
190100 1343N 08219W 9769 00274 0078 +243 +222 118023 023 017 001 00
190130 1345N 08219W 9767 00275 0078 +244 +226 121022 024 020 002 00
190200 1347N 08219W 9769 00274 0078 +242 +227 115018 020 018 011 00
190230 1348N 08219W 9777 00267 0078 +250 +227 081021 022 020 009 00
190300 1350N 08219W 9765 00277 0078 +250 +224 084022 023 020 002 00
190330 1352N 08219W 9768 00276 0079 +250 +220 091022 022 021 001 00
190400 1354N 08220W 9747 00287 0070 +248 +217 093023 024 021 001 00
190430 1356N 08220W 9412 00585 0062 +229 +204 102027 027 022 000 00
190500 1357N 08221W 9054 00925 0063 +205 +186 105028 029 021 000 00
$$
;

[Aric Dunn]

By the way.. It appears the system just off cuba and bahamas has developed a circ... that will complicate things greatly..

[ava_ati]

I think MS/AL looks like a good place to bet a penny on where TD#16 goes.

My penny is on Panama City/Apalachicola Fl. area.

HOWEVER......, I really am beginning to think that there's a real possibility that all models are possibly overplaying the slight weakness to the north of T.D. 16 and underplaying the strength of the mid level ridging to its northwest. I guess what i'm saying here is that i'm not really seeing an obvious reason why T.D. 16 at its present very low latitude might not simply plow WNW 'ward during the next 48 hours which would be far different than a brief "grazing" land interaction. The 200mb - 500mb steering flow down there seems to indicate a pretty strong flow to the southwest emanating out of the Northern Gulf. Where exactly (beyond climo) is the near term steering mechanism that models are seeing that would necessitate an overall N.W. to NNW motion (I wouldn't suspect it would be the low level flow??)

Honestly these are Vegas house odds right now, with the models spread so far out I think you have to give equal credence for everything from LA to the Tallahassee area.

[hurricaneCW]

The NHC has been spot on with their forecast tracks this season and eventual LF should be within 50 miles of their current forecast.

The biggest question mark as always will be intensity. I could see another Category 3 hit if future Nate moves on a NE trajectory. I know Opal has been mentioned several times.

[SFLcane]

Tell that to the NHC Aric...Odds clearly not at 0 here.

[tolakram]

Working on a weather.us animation, interesting early path by the Euro 12z.

[tarheelprogrammer]

I believe barring any changes in environment, this will reach cat 4. Just my opinion.

[chaser1]

Bet ya the point of landfall will be east of the 00Z run.

You're thinking more of a Cedar Key region perhaps? I think a case could be made for landfall to occur that far east but I"m thinking this would require an unexpected delay in T.D. 16 entering the Gulf. That's not unreasonable though. Either overall ridging to its north is slower to erode thus trapping T.D. 16 to the south a bit longer than expected.... or a more significant and unanticipated motion to the west causing a great deal more land interaction, weakening, and re-organizing before later entering the Gulf.

[Aric Dunn]

I believe barring any changes in environment, this will reach cat 4. Just my opinion.

it is not out of the realm of possibility especially if it stays offshore.

[bqknight]

By the way.. It appears the system just off cuba and bahamas has developed a circ... that will complicate things greatly..

I don't see a circulation there. Maybe a bit of a spin but definitely not a closed circulation.

[Aric Dunn]

By the way.. It appears the system just off cuba and bahamas has developed a circ... that will complicate things greatly.. [img]https://image.ibb.co/eDSoiw/GOES18302017277_JWs_ANX.jpg[/mg]

I don't see a circulation there. Maybe a bit of a spin but definitely not a closed circulation.

go to other thread but https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/goes/abi/ ... and02.html full zoom 30 + images you can see it close off very easily in the low levels also look at the flow east of it and over cuba.. it shifted to a west wind ...

[ColdMiser123]

63% of a 65 KT wind increase over 72 hours per SHIPS.

[tolakram]

[GCANE]

[Blown Away]

NHC/Euro all alone to the E... 18z TVCN shifted significantly W, let's see what the NHC does, they hug the TVCN & Euro...

[chaser1]

By the way.. It appears the system just off cuba and bahamas has developed a circ... that will complicate things greatly.. https://image.ibb.co/eDSoiw/GOES18302017277_JWs_ANX.jpg

I don't see a circulation there. Maybe a bit of a spin but definitely not a closed circulation.

I saw this feature last night. Definitely some spin to it but I don't see it really getting vertically stacked. I think this'll be one of those where a mid level vorticity is severely slanted to the north or northeast, and this feature probably destined to be cut down due to strong NE'erly upper level shear once it moves a bit more to the west and into the E. GOM. Boy though, could you imagine if this feature were to stall and/or not really track west into the E. GOM for about 2-3 more days?? Upper level conditions relax significantly in about 60+ hours, so.......??

[Aric Dunn]

By the way.. It appears the system just off cuba and bahamas has developed a circ... that will complicate things greatly.. [img]https://image.ibb.co/eDSoiw/GOES18302017277_JWs_ANX.jpg[/ig]

I don't see a circulation there. Maybe a bit of a spin but definitely not a closed circulation.

I saw this feature last night. Definitely some spin to it but I don't see it really getting vertically stacked. I think this'll be one of those where a mid level vorticity is severely slanted to the north or northeast, and this feature probably destined to be cut down due to strong NE'erly upper level shear once it moves a bit more to the west and into the E. GOM. Boy though, could you imagine if this feature were to stall and/or not really track west into the E. GOM for about 2-3 more days?? Upper level conditions relax significantly in about 60+ hours, so.......??

Right well it does not have to be anything more than a sheared mess to greatly affect soon to be nate.. and that is the point.. now that there is a low level feature pressure are sure to fall which will affect nate..

[stormlover2013]

NHC has been spot on but this is kinda of a different pattern right now.

[MGC]

Expect windshield wiper model solutions until trough that should steer the eventual track of 16 is sampled when it arrives on the west coast. I sure am not hoping for a Katrina type forecast shift.....MGC