ATL: NATE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[SunnyThoughts]

I don't buy the much slower ECMWF, and I do think it will be weakening as it nears the coast and is accelerating NE. Lots of uncertainty as far as landfall point, timing, and intensity.

Wxman, do you think this becomes Nate today or tonight? Is it becoming better organized by the hour, or do you think intensification won't happen until entry into the gulf?

[otowntiger]

I don't buy the much slower ECMWF, and I do think it will be weakening as it nears the coast and is accelerating NE. Lots of uncertainty as far as landfall point, timing, and intensity.

What is still on the table in your mind as far as track? Panama City to SE lA? Further east/further west?

[NDG]

12z Euro continues to paint a very good UL environment for future to be Nate as it tracks over the very warm waters of the GOM.
My forecast of it making a run to become a Major Hurricane at least in the southern GOM is unfortunately looking good. IMO.

[gatorcane]

looks to be moving slightly west of due north to me, models have it moving more NW (GFS) to WNW (Euro) the next 24 hours.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[chris_fit]

12Z Euro Ensembles did shift W

[NDG]

It seems to me as though the NHC is ignoring the trough over the Fl. straits as being a factor on whatever TD #16 does.

They are not ignoring it, they mentioned it very well on their last advisory discussion.

The depression is moving slowly northwestward this morning, around
a distant mid-level ridge over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean.
However the steering pattern should change quickly tomorrow as the
aforementioned mid-tropospheric trough moves across the northwestern
Caribbean into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Southerly flow on
the eastern side of that trough should cause the cyclone to move
much faster to the north-northwest by Friday and northward into the
Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. As the trough moves away, a building
ridge over the southwestern Atlantic is forecast to steer the system
to the north-northeast or northeast toward the northern Gulf
states.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1441.shtml

[BYG Jacob]

looks to be moving slightly west of due north to me, models have it moving more NW (GFS) to WNW (Euro) the next 24 hours.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

Not good, it might avoid most of the mountains and continue to strengthen on that track

[ronjon]

Good trend on the Euro ensembles for the FL west coast - lets see how it evolves the next few days.

[Steve]

18Z NAM 12km resolution brings the center of circulation of Nate up toward the MS Gulf Coast with most of the weather to the east.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... s=0&ypos=0

[stormhunter7]

5pm advisory forecast...

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 82.5W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 82.3W

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 13.2N 83.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 14.6N 83.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 16.7N 84.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 19.5N 85.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 25.0N 88.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 30.5N 86.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 35.5N 82.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 82.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z

[NDG]

NHC shifted the track a little west.
Getting organized during the afternoon.

[bqknight]

A G-IV
mission and Florida special soundings have been set up for tomorrow
to better determine the synoptic steering flow around the cyclone.

That should help with the models.

[NDG]

Environmental conditions look quite favorable for strengthening over
the next few days, with low shear and very warm and deep water in
the path of the cyclone. The various rapid intensification indices
are all higher than the last cycle, suggesting an increasing chance
of rapid intensification occurring. The fly in the ointment,
however, is all of the potential land interaction, first over
Central America and then possibly over the Yucatan Peninsula. As
a compromise, the intensity forecast is raised considerably from the
previous one during the first 3 days, but is still below some
guidance, such as the HWRF.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2051.shtml

[chaser1]

A G-IV
mission and Florida special soundings have been set up for tomorrow
to better determine the synoptic steering flow around the cyclone.

That should help with the models.

Yes, and especially in light of the debate over whatever influence the trough/tropical wave over S. Florida may/may not have on T.D. 16's track.

[GCANE]

Slider has it on sector Mesoscale 2

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/ ... mmb-slider

[FLpanhandle91]

GOES-16 showing what could be a blowup of convection JUST starting to form right over the center.

[Dean4Storms]

One thing I noted with the ECM 12z run the upper High is centered NW of the LLC creating a tilted storm out over the central Gulf.

[SunnyThoughts]

GOES-16 showing what could be a blowup of convection JUST starting to form right over the center.

Ughhhh. I, like everyone else have such huge hurricane fatigue this season. The last thing I planned on doing this weekend was boarding up for a cane. Hopefully just a tropical storm or low end cat 1.

[jlauderdal]

looks to be moving slightly west of due north to me, models have it moving more NW (GFS) to WNW (Euro) the next 24 hours.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

Not good, it might avoid most of the mountains and continue to strengthen on that track

gas up the generators folks, take control of nate and prepare yourself..5 days of supplies including gas for the generator, you can always put it in your car, im still working through my inventory as i only lost power for 18 hours

smooth sailing into the gulf, looks like at least a 2, these late season systems into the big bend area like to weaken on approach but as we know each setup is unique...im heading to tallahassee friday and leaving saturday by noon, i have seen enough hurricane damage this year,have two piles of debris at the end of my driveway waiting for pickup from the good folks at the city of fort lauderdale...they have picked up over 200k cu yds of debris and they estimate a little over a million total...one pile at a time

meanwhile our tropical wave has this going in sofla, fun times in hurricane season this year:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
404 PM EDT WED OCT 4 2017

..FLOOD WATCH FOR EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

..HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR BEACHES OF PALM BEACH COUNTY

..COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR EAST COASTAL AREAS.

..HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EAST COAST BEACHES

..GALE WARNING FOR ATLANTIC AND BISCAYNE BAY

..SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS

[johngaltfla]

October is going to be a lonnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnng month. Ugh. Good luck to our brothers and sisters in the Northern Gulf. Hopefully something weakens it to keep it below a hurricane.