ATL: NATE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[SunnyThoughts]

GFS rolling

[tolakram]

Embarrassing. I have to say, anyone thinking the GFS solution will be close has not been following it very closely this year. This should not happen in 2017.

[jdjaguar]

Hurricane fatigue is right...ugh

[tolakram]

COD loop

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso2-02-200-1-100

[RL3AO]

Even worse is Ramon.

The initialization has five height contours and an 80 or 90kt wind barb (the storm is currently 45 knots).



Six hours later, Ramon is pretty much gone.



Unbelievable CP issues.

[Usf11]

Irma was my first hurricane and it freaked me out. Staying in a dorm was not fun. Fox said it could hit Tampa and I'm freaking out. Think of packing my bags and leaving to D.C. whetr my parents live.

[bella_may]

So y'all are saying discard this run?

[Alyono]

I think it would be a great idea if we refrained from ever posting another GFS run here as the GFS provides significant misinformation. This run has NO CHANCE of verifying at all. Not physically possible

[tolakram]

18Z GFS has a TD into LA.

[psyclone]

I think we can make a not-so-bold prediction that the storm will be much stronger and farther east than the current GFS depiction..

[Hurricaneman]

Motion is due North looking at the satellite pics, that means initial motion is not following any model, seems to be east of the models but how much east later on will be the question and can't rule out an western Cuba landfall

[hipshot]

COD loop

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso2-02-200-1-100

Man, that thing looks like a TS already!

[psyclone]

Irma was my first hurricane and it freaked me out. Staying in a dorm was not fun. Fox said it could hit Tampa and I'm freaking out. Think of packing my bags and leaving to D.C. whetr my parents live.

I think you can chill and monitor for a bit. the system will need to tick a good bit to the east for it to be a big issue for Tampa. Possible...but the 5 pm track ticked west compared to the 11 am so that's a step in the right direction for the FL west coast.

[Alyono]

18Z GFS has a TD into LA.

https://i.imgur.com/0wFiDOW.gif

I am not sure how it manages to do that. It is under a very favorable upper level pattern, there is no dry air intrusion. There is no meteorological reason in that model that says this should not intensify significantly

[AutoPenalti]

Well that is quite interesting from the 18z, let’s see what the Euro shows tonight.

[psyclone]

Motion is due North looking at the satellite pics, that means initial motion is not following any model

It looks like that but it might be a bit of an illusion as the system remains broad and in a formative state. I think we need more time to observe and try to ascertain a motion.

[PSUHiker31]

The only thing I can think of is that it strengthens the Florida disturbance too much which could cause shear I suppose.

[SunnyThoughts]

Considering all the problems the GFS is having, which model or models should we place the most emphasis on along with the euro?

[fox13weather]

While I agree the 18Z GFS looks out to lunch, we have to be careful not to completely discount it. A model forecast is not wrong until actually proven wrong after the fact. Maybe the track is off but the intensity is close or vice versa?? Way too early to get into specifics here. We don't even have a named storm.

[gtalum]

Irma was my first hurricane and it freaked me out. Staying in a dorm was not fun. Fox said it could hit Tampa and I'm freaking out. Think of packing my bags and leaving to D.C. whetr my parents live.

It's way too early to freak out. Relax man.

If it does become necessary to bug out (which I doubt in this case), think much closer like Orlando, Cocoa, or maybe as far south as Miami on the outside. Irma was an odd case because of her massive size and the fact that she ran all the way up the state, meaning that any effective evac had to be long distance.

If you're really nervous, make a hotel reservation for Saturday night and maybe Sunday night slmewhere on the east coast that you can cancel if the current track looks to hold somewhat closely.