ATL: NATE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

Considering all the problems the GFS is having, which model or models should we place the most emphasis on along with the euro?

If you followed the performance of the Euro during Irma and Maria there is little reason to look for others at this point in the storms life. The GFS did have value when Irma got closer to land but the euro was excellent and even beat the NHC forecast points a few times. At the beginning of the 18Z run the GFS exhibited really bad convective feedback issues which pretty much destroys the rest of the run IMO. Maybe it will improve once SIXTEEN gains strength.

[PSUHiker31]

Considering all the problems the GFS is having, which model or models should we place the most emphasis on along with the euro?

UKMET. HWRF once the system is better established

[LarryWx]

It does look underdone considering how it now looks. But I'll be devil's advocate. The 18Z GFS path crosses land twice, which during those two times isn't conducive for strengthening, and is prevented from concentrating the available energy really well due to the surface low from the FL Straits system competing and causing it to stretch to the NW. Aren't these met. reasons that could prevent major strengthening?

[Nimbus]

I think we can make a not-so-bold prediction that the storm will be much stronger and farther east than the current GFS depiction..

Any circulation effects from Ophelia would tend to track 16 further east.
Probably why the NHC has been hugging the Euro.

[SunnyThoughts]

Dr, Rick Knabb giving excellent discussion on twc right now for those interested.

[LarryWx]

I think we can make a not-so-bold prediction that the storm will be much stronger and farther east than the current GFS depiction..

Any circulation effects from Ophelia would tend to track 16 further east.
Probably why the NHC has been hugging the Euro.

I don't necessarily agree with this because the potential Ophelia in the NW GOM on the GFS and the CMC sort of draws TD 16 to follow it. This sort of reminds me of what Jose did to weaken the ridge to Maria's north and prevent her from hitting the SE US.

[CrazyC83]

The intensity forecast is so difficult. If it goes west of the NHC track, it may never become a hurricane. If it goes east of the track, rapid deepening is likely with nothing to inhibit it - we could have a very intense hurricane.

[wxman57]

I don't see any odd motion this afternoon that might signal a significant track shift. Looks like it's behaving, to me. Still lots of uncertainty as to the final landfall point, and intensity. NHC track is right on my track now - right in the middle of guidance if you consider the ensembles as well as the operational runs (ignoring NAM, NGM, etc). HWRF has proven to be generally bad. I'm thinking that the GFS & its ensemble members will start shifting east on Friday, perhaps after we get the G-IV data into the models tomorrow evening. Best bet for final landfall remains mid to western FL Panhandle on Sunday (not Monday morning as per 12Z EC).

[CrazyC83]

We should know more tomorrow when the G-IV samples the system.

[bella_may]

The intensity forecast is so difficult. If it goes west of the NHC track, it may never become a hurricane. If it goes east of the track, rapid deepening is likely with nothing to inhibit it - we could have a very intense hurricane.

This is not true.

[bevgo]

NOOOOOOOO! I have my disability hearing in 10 days. Nate to be is NOT welcome

[SunnyThoughts]

Dr. Knabb on the weather channel says to prepare for a cat 2, but not to rule out a cat 3.

[BYG Jacob]

Motion is due North looking at the satellite pics, that means initial motion is not following any model, seems to be east of the models but how much east later on will be the question and can't rule out an western Cuba landfall

If it stays far enough east a major will easily be obtainable

[AutoPenalti]

I don't see any odd motion this afternoon that might signal a significant track shift. Looks like it's behaving, to me. Still lots of uncertainty as to the final landfall point, and intensity. NHC track is right on my track now - right in the middle of guidance if you consider the ensembles as well as the operational runs (ignoring NAM, NGM, etc). HWRF has proven to be generally bad. I'm thinking that the GFS & its ensemble members will start shifting east on Friday, perhaps after we get the G-IV data into the models tomorrow evening. Best bet for final landfall remains mid to western FL Panhandle on Sunday (not Monday morning as per 12Z EC).

Any motion North looks to be mid-level based.

[BYG Jacob]

The intensity forecast is so difficult. If it goes west of the NHC track, it may never become a hurricane. If it goes east of the track, rapid deepening is likely with nothing to inhibit it - we could have a very intense hurricane.

This is not true.

Erm, wat?

If it only clips Nicaragua, and shoots the gap between the Yucatan and Cuba Nate could easily be a major hurricane, given the absurd heat content Nate would be traveling over.

[Emmett_Brown]

Staring at a loop of recent vis images, I can understand why some are seeing a N motion, and some a NW motion. If you stare at the formative "center", it looks like mostly N, but when you step back, it appears that the whole storm envelop is moving NW right on the NHC track. As for looks, the storm looks to be steadily organizing, it's just a matter of time now, assuming it doesn't linger too long over land tomorrow.

Edit: Hmm... actually, staring some more at the loop, it doesn't seem to be moving much at all recently, but it's still broad, so hard to tell...

[bella_may]

The intensity forecast is so difficult. If it goes west of the NHC track, it may never become a hurricane. If it goes east of the track, rapid deepening is likely with nothing to inhibit it - we could have a very intense hurricane.

This is not true.

Erm, wat?

If it only clips Nicaragua, and shoots the gap between the Yucatan and Cuba Nate could easily be a major hurricane, given the absurd heat content Nate would be traveling over.

Many more factors besides water temp. Also, more west doesn't necessarily = weaker as the HWRF showed.

[AxaltaRacing24]

This is not true.

Erm, wat?

If it only clips Nicaragua, and shoots the gap between the Yucatan and Cuba Nate could easily be a major hurricane, given the absurd heat content Nate would be traveling over.

Many more factors besides water temp. Also, more west doesn't necessarily = weaker as the HWRF showed.

We know that there's more factors, but they are almost all favorable. Some of those include low shear, warm water, high TCHP, no dry air, etc.

[BYG Jacob]

This is not true.

Erm, wat?

If it only clips Nicaragua, and shoots the gap between the Yucatan and Cuba Nate could easily be a major hurricane, given the absurd heat content Nate would be traveling over.

Many more factors besides water temp. Also, more west doesn't necessarily = weaker as the HWRF showed.

Shear isn't going to be an issue , and if it stays far enough off the coast, neither will dry air. There's nothing to weaken this except land interaction or an EWRC if it gets that strong.

[mcheer23]

Both HMON and HWRF are way west..... Okay then...