ATL: NATE - Post Tropical - Discussion

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Alyono
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Re: ATL: SIXTEEN - Models

#581 Postby Alyono » Wed Oct 04, 2017 6:29 pm

mcheer23 wrote:Both HMON and HWRF are way west..... :eek: Okay then...


both run off of the horrible 18Z GFS
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Re: ATL: SIXTEEN - Models

#582 Postby kevin mathis » Wed Oct 04, 2017 6:31 pm

NHC hugs the EURO because of this...It simply out performs. I watched as all other models had Irma on the east coast offshore, (UKMET) not withstanding, while the Euro showed a SW Florida hit. Plain and simple why the NHC is east of the models...The Euro and Climatology suggests it.
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Re: ATL: SIXTEEN - Models

#583 Postby NDG » Wed Oct 04, 2017 6:32 pm

Alyono wrote:
mcheer23 wrote:Both HMON and HWRF are way west..... :eek: Okay then...


both run off of the horrible 18Z GFS


Plus its forecasted position at 0z is too far west from where it is right now.
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Re: ATL: SIXTEEN - Models

#584 Postby stormlover2013 » Wed Oct 04, 2017 6:37 pm

I'm the biggest euro guy ever, but the playmakers are how strong will the cold front be and how strong will that ridge be by Florida, pattern is weird right now, not ur normal October pattern/climatology...I still say euro wins but heck we don't even have a name storm yet, one thing about this year tracking all the storms, they have only been really consistent 2-3 days out...center could still relocate and etc still have plenty of time
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Re: ATL: SIXTEEN - Models

#585 Postby WeatherEmperor » Wed Oct 04, 2017 6:38 pm

Alyono wrote:
mcheer23 wrote:Both HMON and HWRF are way west..... :eek: Okay then...


both run off of the horrible 18Z GFS


Isnt this what the HFIP corrected consensus is for...to help eliminate model bias such as this?? What does the HFIP show for TD 16 btw?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Re: ATL: SIXTEEN - Models

#586 Postby PSUHiker31 » Wed Oct 04, 2017 6:38 pm

kevin mathis wrote:NHC hugs the EURO because of this...It simply out performs. I watched as all other models had Irma on the east coast offshore, (UKMET) not withstanding, while the Euro showed a SW Florida hit. Plain and simple why the NHC is east of the models...The Euro and Climatology suggests it.


Yes, but it can also go a little too much in one direction or another as proven with Irma, and right now it is moving towards the GFS. I don't think it will go as far west as the GFS, but splitting the difference right now with a slight lean towards the Euro is not unreasonable 4 days out.
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Re: ATL: SIXTEEN - Models

#587 Postby kevin mathis » Wed Oct 04, 2017 6:39 pm

BTW..thrilled to be back...had password problems and I dropped off the face of the Storm2K earth for a few years...I've of coarse been reading, just glad to be back!
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Re: ATL: SIXTEEN - Models

#588 Postby kevin mathis » Wed Oct 04, 2017 6:44 pm

PSUHiker31 wrote:
kevin mathis wrote:NHC hugs the EURO because of this...It simply out performs. I watched as all other models had Irma on the east coast offshore, (UKMET) not withstanding, while the Euro showed a SW Florida hit. Plain and simple why the NHC is east of the models...The Euro and Climatology suggests it.


Yes, but it can also go a little too much in one direction or another as proven with Irma, and right now it is moving towards the GFS. I don't think it will go as far west as the GFS, but splitting the difference right now with a slight lean towards the Euro is not unreasonable 4 days out.


I have to say, and I could be wrong...But 2012 Debbie is the only time I remembering the Euro had to "come in line" with the GFS...Usually the other way around
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Re: ATL: SIXTEEN - Models

#589 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Oct 04, 2017 6:46 pm

Not sure the resolution, but I noticed that very few of the GFS ensembles even have a hurricane (I see maybe 2 with a pressure lower than 990).
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Re: ATL: SIXTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#590 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Oct 04, 2017 6:54 pm

Are there any radar sites in the area? Those would help diagnose the surface center motion.

It does look to me like a movement at almost due north, with a long term motion around 330. My best guess is 12.8N 82.3W.
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Re: ATL: SIXTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#591 Postby NDG » Wed Oct 04, 2017 6:55 pm

One thing that the subtropical looking disturbance approaching FL will do is moisten up the atmosphere quite nice as it moves westward across the GOM ahead of TD 16.
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Re: ATL: SIXTEEN - Models

#592 Postby PSUHiker31 » Wed Oct 04, 2017 6:57 pm

kevin mathis wrote:
PSUHiker31 wrote:
kevin mathis wrote:NHC hugs the EURO because of this...It simply out performs. I watched as all other models had Irma on the east coast offshore, (UKMET) not withstanding, while the Euro showed a SW Florida hit. Plain and simple why the NHC is east of the models...The Euro and Climatology suggests it.


Yes, but it can also go a little too much in one direction or another as proven with Irma, and right now it is moving towards the GFS. I don't think it will go as far west as the GFS, but splitting the difference right now with a slight lean towards the Euro is not unreasonable 4 days out.


I have to say, and I could be wrong...But 2012 Debbie is the only time I remembering the Euro had to "come in line" with the GFS...Usually the other way around


In terms of short term landfall prediction, the GFS was better than the Euro with Irma... Though the EPS had it better nailed. One of the keys here are the various EPS ensembles stretching west from the operational.
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Re: ATL: SIXTEEN - Models

#593 Postby PSUHiker31 » Wed Oct 04, 2017 6:57 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Not sure the resolution, but I noticed that very few of the GFS ensembles even have a hurricane (I see maybe 2 with a pressure lower than 990).


GFS has it going over more land and weird interference from the Florida disturbance
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Re: ATL: SIXTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#594 Postby TJRE » Wed Oct 04, 2017 6:59 pm

PAC feed on Cimss TPW loop
Just a hunch this system gels nicely overnight

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5

SST guidance
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/conto ... pac.cf.gif
incubator
Last edited by TJRE on Wed Oct 04, 2017 7:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: SIXTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#595 Postby Michele B » Wed Oct 04, 2017 7:04 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
BYG Jacob wrote:
gatorcane wrote:looks to be moving slightly west of due north to me, models have it moving more NW (GFS) to WNW (Euro) the next 24 hours.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

Not good, it might avoid most of the mountains and continue to strengthen on that track


gas up the generators folks, take control of nate and prepare yourself..5 days of supplies including gas for the generator, you can always put it in your car, im still working through my inventory as i only lost power for 18 hours

smooth sailing into the gulf, looks like at least a 2, these late season systems into the big bend area like to weaken on approach but as we know each setup is unique...im heading to tallahassee friday and leaving saturday by noon, i have seen enough hurricane damage this year,have two piles of debris at the end of my driveway waiting for pickup from the good folks at the city of fort lauderdale...they have picked up over 200k cu yds of debris and they estimate a little over a million total...one pile at a time

meanwhile our tropical wave has this going in sofla, fun times in hurricane season this year:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
404 PM EDT WED OCT 4 2017

..FLOOD WATCH FOR EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

..HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR BEACHES OF PALM BEACH COUNTY

..COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR EAST COASTAL AREAS.

..HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EAST COAST BEACHES

..GALE WARNING FOR ATLANTIC AND BISCAYNE BAY

..SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS


Yeah, SO MUCH rain!

Hubs and others JUST got done cleaning out the American Legion hall here with 3' water, ready to start dry-walling anew, and then new doors/floors. DON'T want anymore rain! Might overflow the rivers close by again.

What a season!
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Re: ATL: SIXTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#596 Postby emeraldislenc » Wed Oct 04, 2017 7:06 pm

Looks better organized
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Re: ATL: SIXTEEN - Models

#597 Postby johngaltfla » Wed Oct 04, 2017 7:07 pm

PSUHiker31 wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:Not sure the resolution, but I noticed that very few of the GFS ensembles even have a hurricane (I see maybe 2 with a pressure lower than 990).


GFS has it going over more land and weird interference from the Florida disturbance


Weird is the CMC. It's like watching the ultimate disaster movie with each run. :double:
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Re: ATL: SIXTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#598 Postby dizzyfish » Wed Oct 04, 2017 7:08 pm

After reading here today and listening to the local mets and my own research we have decided to prepare for at least power outage (due to already damaged trees) and possible TS winds so will remove lightweight objects from the yard. After Irma I didn't put all my foo foo back out in the yard - just bird feeders and the table and chairs.

We don't plan on boarding up unless the track shifts or the category and size increases. (Florida West Coast, Pasco County)
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Re: ATL: SIXTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#599 Postby johngaltfla » Wed Oct 04, 2017 7:09 pm

Usf11 wrote:Irma was my first hurricane and it freaked me out. Staying in a dorm was not fun. Fox said it could hit Tampa and I'm freaking out. Think of packing my bags and leaving to D.C. whetr my parents live.


You get used to it after the first 4 or 5 storms. Then it is just an annoyance being without power. For the poor people who take the full brunt, that is the worst. Bonita Springs and points south are still a mess weeks later.
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Re: ATL: SIXTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#600 Postby johngaltfla » Wed Oct 04, 2017 7:10 pm

dizzyfish wrote:After reading here today and listening to the local mets and my own research we have decided to prepare for at least power outage (due to already damaged trees) and possible TS winds so will remove lightweight objects from the yard. After Irma I didn't put all my foo foo back out in the yard - just bird feeders and the table and chairs.

We don't plan on boarding up unless the track shifts or the category and size increases. (Florida West Coast, Pasco County)


I'm not putting my boards back into storage until AFTER the first real cold front breaks through the peninsula.
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