mcheer23 wrote:Both HMON and HWRF are way west.....Okay then...
both run off of the horrible 18Z GFS
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mcheer23 wrote:Both HMON and HWRF are way west.....Okay then...
Alyono wrote:mcheer23 wrote:Both HMON and HWRF are way west.....Okay then...
both run off of the horrible 18Z GFS
Alyono wrote:mcheer23 wrote:Both HMON and HWRF are way west.....Okay then...
both run off of the horrible 18Z GFS
kevin mathis wrote:NHC hugs the EURO because of this...It simply out performs. I watched as all other models had Irma on the east coast offshore, (UKMET) not withstanding, while the Euro showed a SW Florida hit. Plain and simple why the NHC is east of the models...The Euro and Climatology suggests it.
PSUHiker31 wrote:kevin mathis wrote:NHC hugs the EURO because of this...It simply out performs. I watched as all other models had Irma on the east coast offshore, (UKMET) not withstanding, while the Euro showed a SW Florida hit. Plain and simple why the NHC is east of the models...The Euro and Climatology suggests it.
Yes, but it can also go a little too much in one direction or another as proven with Irma, and right now it is moving towards the GFS. I don't think it will go as far west as the GFS, but splitting the difference right now with a slight lean towards the Euro is not unreasonable 4 days out.
kevin mathis wrote:PSUHiker31 wrote:kevin mathis wrote:NHC hugs the EURO because of this...It simply out performs. I watched as all other models had Irma on the east coast offshore, (UKMET) not withstanding, while the Euro showed a SW Florida hit. Plain and simple why the NHC is east of the models...The Euro and Climatology suggests it.
Yes, but it can also go a little too much in one direction or another as proven with Irma, and right now it is moving towards the GFS. I don't think it will go as far west as the GFS, but splitting the difference right now with a slight lean towards the Euro is not unreasonable 4 days out.
I have to say, and I could be wrong...But 2012 Debbie is the only time I remembering the Euro had to "come in line" with the GFS...Usually the other way around
CrazyC83 wrote:Not sure the resolution, but I noticed that very few of the GFS ensembles even have a hurricane (I see maybe 2 with a pressure lower than 990).
jlauderdal wrote:BYG Jacob wrote:gatorcane wrote:looks to be moving slightly west of due north to me, models have it moving more NW (GFS) to WNW (Euro) the next 24 hours.
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12
Not good, it might avoid most of the mountains and continue to strengthen on that track
gas up the generators folks, take control of nate and prepare yourself..5 days of supplies including gas for the generator, you can always put it in your car, im still working through my inventory as i only lost power for 18 hours
smooth sailing into the gulf, looks like at least a 2, these late season systems into the big bend area like to weaken on approach but as we know each setup is unique...im heading to tallahassee friday and leaving saturday by noon, i have seen enough hurricane damage this year,have two piles of debris at the end of my driveway waiting for pickup from the good folks at the city of fort lauderdale...they have picked up over 200k cu yds of debris and they estimate a little over a million total...one pile at a time
meanwhile our tropical wave has this going in sofla, fun times in hurricane season this year:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
404 PM EDT WED OCT 4 2017
..FLOOD WATCH FOR EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
..HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR BEACHES OF PALM BEACH COUNTY
..COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR EAST COASTAL AREAS.
..HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EAST COAST BEACHES
..GALE WARNING FOR ATLANTIC AND BISCAYNE BAY
..SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS
PSUHiker31 wrote:CrazyC83 wrote:Not sure the resolution, but I noticed that very few of the GFS ensembles even have a hurricane (I see maybe 2 with a pressure lower than 990).
GFS has it going over more land and weird interference from the Florida disturbance
Usf11 wrote:Irma was my first hurricane and it freaked me out. Staying in a dorm was not fun. Fox said it could hit Tampa and I'm freaking out. Think of packing my bags and leaving to D.C. whetr my parents live.
dizzyfish wrote:After reading here today and listening to the local mets and my own research we have decided to prepare for at least power outage (due to already damaged trees) and possible TS winds so will remove lightweight objects from the yard. After Irma I didn't put all my foo foo back out in the yard - just bird feeders and the table and chairs.
We don't plan on boarding up unless the track shifts or the category and size increases. (Florida West Coast, Pasco County)
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