ATL: NATE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Canadian says Nate will be the system by Florida

Waiting for the UKMET now to give a reasonable solution

looking at radar out of Keywest.. it quite likely will be ( though sheared mess) nate before the next recon reaches 16.. unless NHC upgrades 16 without recon...

[Alyono]

Big west shift for UKMET

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16L ANALYSED POSITION : 12.3N 82.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL162017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 05.10.2017 0 12.3N 82.9W 1005 25
1200UTC 05.10.2017 12 13.3N 82.7W 1002 29
0000UTC 06.10.2017 24 16.3N 83.3W 996 35
1200UTC 06.10.2017 36 19.5N 84.9W 988 47
0000UTC 07.10.2017 48 22.8N 87.1W 985 53
1200UTC 07.10.2017 60 26.3N 89.3W 984 57
0000UTC 08.10.2017 72 29.5N 89.8W 982 57
1200UTC 08.10.2017 84 31.9N 88.3W 992 23
0000UTC 09.10.2017 96 34.2N 85.1W 999 20
1200UTC 09.10.2017 108 36.1N 81.1W 1006 18
0000UTC 10.10.2017 120 37.5N 78.0W 1010 21
1200UTC 10.10.2017 132 38.8N 75.0W 1012 23

[NDG]

Looks like UKMET shifted west towards the MS gulf coast.

Edit: actually it now shows just west of the mouth of the MS river on landfall, SE LA.

[Ptarmigan]

I noticed the forecast models have Tropical Depression 16 going over Northwest Caribbean. That area has the warmest waters in the Atlantic Basin. Of course water is not the only factor.

[cheezyWXguy]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but wouldn't a more westward track through the GOM lead to a stronger system (barring land interaction, of course)? I recall a post earlier noting that the euro depicts the anticyclone above 16 being displaced to the NW, resulting in tilting of the system.

One thing I'm paying close attention to is the evolution of the impending front next week. NWSFWD notes in their discussion that the Euro has been the most consistent solution and brings the front through faster than the GFS, but it is worth noting that the euro has slowed frontal passage through DFW over the last couple days, from Monday morning to Tuesday morning now. The euro solution is clearly much more reasonable in both its handling of 16 and the front, but I'm inclined to think the ultimate outcome would be a system moving further west than the current euro solution depicts, but still much closer in track and behavior to the euro than the gfs

[Hammy]

What's the link to the radar station?

[bella_may]

Can someone post the ukmet? Can't find it on tropical tidbits

[NDG]

The one thing I just noticed about the 0z UKMET is that it has TD 16 making landfall over SE LA in less than 72 hrs.

Out the window I am throwing this run.

[NDG]

Can someone post the ukmet? Can't find it on tropical tidbits

[EquusStorm]

If TD16 just clips land moving NNW, the terrain in eastern Honduras and Nicaragua is low and swampy (Hence, 'Mosquito Coast') and the circulation may stay intact a lot better than if it had passed over higher terrain.

[MWatkins]

Seems like the GFS and now UKMET are confused by all of the convection near/west of 80W. I suppose this highlights the difference between a large, deep layer hurricane (Irma and Maria) plowing westward under a strong ridge (and small along-track and cross track errors) and an October system with a big t-wave and potential trough to the north.

Along-track errors with TD16 could be huge even if the eventual track verifies due to large differences when/if it accelerates into the westerlies.

Just when we think we've got this all figured out - here comes a western Caribbean system that could blow verification stats for the year...

MW

[Sanibel]

Black IR might be a sign of potential strength down the road...


I agree with the NNW compenent...

[Alyono]

HWRF has a mighty strange lack of transporting winds down to the surface. It has 90 kts at 850mb, but only 57 at the surface at landfall

[Alyono]

EC having issues in the short term with 2 low centers rotating around each other

[stormhunter7]

looks like big west shift in 00z EURO... landfall in Louisiana/MS/AL?

[stormhunter7]

yep. Big shift and change on 00Z EURO... landfall on MS coast, as a sheared TS, IMO.

[latitude_20]

The intensity forecast is so difficult. If it goes west of the NHC track, it may never become a hurricane. If it goes east of the track, rapid deepening is likely with nothing to inhibit it - we could have a very intense hurricane.

This is not true.

bella_may is quite right. There is plenty of fuel down here. The air is saturated with heat and moisture. The last two summers have been unseasonably hot. I was down on the beach today shooting photos, and the waters are bathtub-warm right as you step in. I have a cenote less than 50 yards from me that should be freezing cold, but is unusually hot for this time of year. Now, multiply the many thousands of cenotes in the same condition and factor in a landmass that is only a few feet above sea level.

[bella_may]

The mighty gfs prevails

[stormlover2013]

We don't even have a named system yet no model has prevailed, it was common sense on what could happen still tons a time I've always said Friday we would know

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Only question atm, is how strong.