ATL: NATE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[SoupBone]

Any reason to doubt this latest EURO? The GFS was a strange run, but EURO looked solid.

[latitude_20]

We don't even have a named system yet no model has prevailed, it was common sense on what could happen still tons a time I've always said Friday we would know

Yes, absolutely. I'm not into "model battles". Meteorology is a science, and science begins with what is actually observed in the world. Just saying that a clip along the northern Yucatan might influence this system slightly, but not in the way some are thinking. This isn't Columbia. Plenty of systems have plowed right through here like a tractor on a potato field.

[SoupBone]

Their point is that this is a major shift west by the EURO. The NHC doesn't do drastic swings in forecasts. The GFS was an odd run but this EURO wasn't. It's not so much a model war as it is better agreement. That's a huge shift.

[Aric Dunn]

yep Our little noname system casuing issues it seems.

[Alyono]

Any reason to doubt this latest EURO? The GFS was a strange run, but EURO looked solid.

EC had competing vorticies through 48 hours

[SoupBone]

Any reason to doubt this latest EURO? The GFS was a strange run, but EURO looked solid.

EC had competing vorticies through 48 hours

Ok well that's certainly odd, but would it affect the final landfall location?

[chaser1]

Perhaps no fate for Nate?

[Big Easy Breeze]

It is safe to say, according to the way the models are currently projecting, along with the current weather patterns, this system will landfall somewhere between the central La. gulf coast, all the way over to Destin Fl. i am doubting any landfall outside of that window. Things are lining up for that window. Now it is just a matter of where, within that window. By tomorrow evening, a much smaller window will evolve.

And of course, as I and many others continue to point out..."according to the way the models are currently projecting" is a pretty huge caveat 4 days out, especially given the time of year, lack of strong consensus (i.e. the global/hurricane model and ensemble spread), and some lack of continuity.

This is why any met who has any sort of experience with forecasting in the tropics will avoid using phrase like "will" (all by itself), "definitely", "extremely likely" when it comes to forecasts beyond a couple of days, and instead, use more uncertain terms that express degrees of confidence.

And that is why I stick to the NHC forecast cone, and respected models, as opposed to any forecast predictions 4 days out, from any weather forum junkie, or everyday meterologist, that generally do not have access to the data the NHC experts have.

Pinpointing an EXACT landfall, based on models four days out, with a lot of caveats, is irresponsible and foolish. Stick to a general area and follow the narrowing window for the landfall, as the weather patterns unfold and the NHC gets a better grip on how things will evolve.

The old adage about weather, generally speaking, in the south; "If you don't like the current weather, stick around a few minutes; it will change", certainly can apply to hurricanes a lot of times.

[northjaxpro]

So NHC is taking more interest with the GFS now that they have shifted the projected track farther to the west on their 5:00 a.m. advisory.

However, I agree with what Levi Cowan stated in his briefing last night in which that trough of low pressure off the Florida East Coast is going to linger and a piece of energy will develop and move off the Florida East coast which EURO showed early Wednesday. This would keep the HP ridge in the Western Atlantic weaker and from building westward. This will help steer to the northeast whatever becomes of future Nate as we go into the weekend, if the EURO verifies. I anticipate we will see this path shift back farther east as time progresses the next 24-36 hours.

[Alyono]

there is a chance, albeit a small one, this never does become Nate.

I am not impressed at all with the structure this morning. Convection i not focusing around the center and it appears we have decent shear over it, both from the convection over the EPAC and from the upper low to its north

[Blown Away]

O6z GFS... 16L as TD/TW into Louisiana...

[GCANE]

500mb vort is broad and displaced NW of the surface low.
It will likely survive the trip over land.

Anti-cyclone is displaced SW of the surface-low and contributing to some UL shear.

High CAPE air as well as insane Ocean Heat content available as the CoC moves back over the water in about 24 hrs.

Lots of LL convergence present due to the gyre - very evident on MIMIC-TPW.

A couple good VHTs could easliy push the circulation to the surface once back over the water.

A nearly saturated air column is forecast to be ahead of the CoC in 24 hrs.
A good setup for core warming.

355K PV is forecast to be clear in 24 hrs.
Some UL shear may still be present then from the ULL to its NW.

Since 355K PV is clear, the shear may get pushed out if strong convection fires up.

[tolakram]

How about that, the Euro now looks more like the crazy GFS runs.

[NDG]

What a shock to the world, the GFS has been right all along
Good thing I don't gamble, I would had lost big time money on the usual good Euro.

[N2FSU]

Odds of the models making any significant eastward shifts now that we are in the 72 hour window?

[fox13weather]

While I agree the 18Z GFS looks out to lunch, we have to be careful not to completely discount it. A model forecast is not wrong until actually proven wrong after the fact. Maybe the track is off but the intensity is close or vice versa?? Way too early to get into specifics here. We don't even have a named storm.

Hmmmm

[PSUHiker31]

While the tracks are reasonable, I still find the strength forecasts from both models to be an utter mess

[Alyono]

looking at satellite, it looks like shear is 20-25 kts right now from the SW. Major shear forecast bust by the models

[Steve H.]

I have little faith in the models at this point. Solutions as far as intensity, as well as the spurious systems that have been shown on many of them have come and gone during the past few days. Most of the models show little if any development of tropical systems during the next 10 days, and I am personally fine with that. It's just strange how the models have shown such large swings in handling the current pattern.

[NDG]

TD 16 is making landfall over the NE tip of Nicaragua, still moving NNW. Depending how much time it spends over land will depend how it strengthens in the western Caribbean.



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