ATL: NATE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

on a side note.... the 06 GFS has the system north of cuba moving WNW to NW from this point on.. however it is moving due west if not slightly south of west.. reason for this post.. the shear drops off in about 24 to 30 hours just north of CUBA and the Yucatan channelas upper ridging builds back in.. if this stays farther south it may end up even actually getting a classification.. greatly affecting Nate... need to watch the track of the circ associated with the noname system.

[bqknight]

on a side note.... the 06 GFS has the system north of cuba moving WNW to NW from this point on.. however it is moving due west if not slightly south of west.. reason for this post.. the shear drops off in about 24 to 30 hours just north of CUBA and the Yucatan channelas upper ridging builds back in.. if this stays farther south it may end up even actually getting a classification.. greatly affecting Nate... need to watch the track of the circ associated with the noname system.

I will eat my words if this gets a name...however, I don't see anything to show this is even close to being named. The NHC gives it a 0% chance of developing and the system is not even tropical in nature right now.

There's nothing there but rain and squally weather.

[SoupBone]

on a side note.... the 06 GFS has the system north of cuba moving WNW to NW from this point on.. however it is moving due west if not slightly south of west.. reason for this post.. the shear drops off in about 24 to 30 hours just north of CUBA and the Yucatan channelas upper ridging builds back in.. if this stays farther south it may end up even actually getting a classification.. greatly affecting Nate... need to watch the track of the circ associated with the noname system.

You guys have to get better at posting your complete thoughts. How?

[Aric Dunn]

on a side note.... the 06 GFS has the system north of cuba moving WNW to NW from this point on.. however it is moving due west if not slightly south of west.. reason for this post.. the shear drops off in about 24 to 30 hours just north of CUBA and the Yucatan channelas upper ridging builds back in.. if this stays farther south it may end up even actually getting a classification.. greatly affecting Nate... need to watch the track of the circ associated with the noname system.

I will eat my words if this gets a name...however, I don't see anything to show this is even close to being named. The NHC gives it a 0% chance of developing and the system is not even tropical in nature right now.

There's nothing there but rain and squally weather.

nothing close ? only needs sustained convection... at this point.

the question of if it is closed or not has been answered..

[stormlover2013]

I am looking at the pattern, right now models are saying a stronger high pressure over Florida, I could see it swing back to florida today but if it doesn't then I say models are getting a grasp on the high pressure being stronger, so la looks like a good bet right now...

[Blown Away]

Good news is the intensity guidance keeping Nate a weak to moderate TS to NGOM coast... So may not be a big wind event...

[Dean4Storms]

Let's not forget the IV Gulfstream and FL Balloon launchings haven't been done yet and models fed so these final destinations and intensities could swing some more.

Swing back east you think or west toward Texas?

Really could not say synoptically but climatology would say a swing back a bit further east and a Cat. 1 hurricane a strong possibility. These Gulf systems even when struggling with dry air and shear can get baroclinically driven so much you do have stronger winds than what the models indicated. Seen it multiple times.

Edit: I should add that also these lopsided storms can also get tugged a bit more toward the weather side of the storm, even center relocations.

[stormlover2013]

dean, I am a big climo guy but right now the pattern is different then normal oct patterns, also its early oct...high pressure builds back in over florida and I don't see that getting weaker right now....so the only thing that swings this east quick to florida in the cold front and that doesn't come till Tuesday, some early indication early in the week could some Sunday or Monday but now looks like Tuesday. IF the high pressure doesn't weaken over florida this won't take that east quick turn right off the bat now.

[Tireman4]

Let's not forget the IV Gulfstream and FL Balloon launchings haven't been done yet and models fed so these final destinations and intensities could swing some more.

Swing back east you think or west toward Texas?

Really could not say synoptically but climatology would say a swing back a bit further east and a Cat. 1 hurricane a strong possibility. These Gulf systems even when struggling with dry air and shear can get baroclinically driven so much you do have stronger winds than what the models indicated. Seen it multiple times.

Plus, I think this very stout front that is coming Monday/Tuesday for the Houston area will move it East

[bqknight]

on a side note.... the 06 GFS has the system north of cuba moving WNW to NW from this point on.. however it is moving due west if not slightly south of west.. reason for this post.. the shear drops off in about 24 to 30 hours just north of CUBA and the Yucatan channelas upper ridging builds back in.. if this stays farther south it may end up even actually getting a classification.. greatly affecting Nate... need to watch the track of the circ associated with the noname system.

I will eat my words if this gets a name...however, I don't see anything to show this is even close to being named. The NHC gives it a 0% chance of developing and the system is not even tropical in nature right now.

There's nothing there but rain and squally weather.

nothing close ? only needs sustained convection... at this point.

the question of if it is closed or not has been answered..

I will gladly eat my words if you're right but I am going to have to go with the experts (NHC) and say this has near a 0% chance of forming.

[Dean4Storms]

dean I am a big climo guy but right now the pattern is different then normal oct patterns, also its early oct...high pressure builds back in over florida and I don't see that getting weaker right now....so the only thing that swings this east quick to florida in the cold front and that doesn't come till Tuesday, some early indication early in the week could some Sunday or Monday but now looks like Tuesday. IF the high pressure doesn't weaken over florida this won't take that east quick turn right off the bat now.

Yea, I'm not saying a Peninsula threat or even eastern FL Panhandle. I did say a bit further east meaning maybe the Western FL Panhandle to Mobile, AL

[stormlover2013]

yeah the cold front is coming but at the beginning it was showing sunday or early monday...now it looks like tuesday the front will be here

[stormlover2013]

well if the high pressure stays strong it won't happen, and now the euro, gfs, cmc, over the last 24 hours have the high pressure stronger than what he had the last couple of days, now like I said it could flip back today and show its not as stronger but if it doesn't show it on the next runs then I say the models will have a good grasp on it, models have been good this year about 2-3 days out other than that they have struggled in the 4-6 day range.

[Aric Dunn]

fact of the matter both systems will be interacting ( no real way out of it at this point). To what extent this interaction is depends on the orginization of the noname system and how far south it stays.

They are already attached at the hip lol

[tolakram]

How about that, the Euro now looks more like the crazy GFS runs.

[i mg]https://i.imgur.com/WoPD61a.gif[/img]

What is crazy?

Hi Big Easy,

this is the models thread so we discuss model runs. This is not the place to try and get an accurate forecast. Not saying questions aren't welcome but just reminding that this thread is different from the discussion thread.

Last nights run of the GFS (the one I was commenting on) had all kinds of convective feedback issues, showing numerous areas of vorticity impossibly close to each other. The Euro run is now very close to the track the GFS showed and also shows one competing low level circulation. In addition the Euro now shows the low developing in the Florida straits and moving north west. Regardless of the horrible feedback issue will the GFS end up being more accurate with Nate? That's the big question right now.

[Aric Dunn]

If the noname system stays intact and farther south ( as it appears it might) that a east shift in models is likely to occur as the interaction between the two systems will accelerate nate northward sooner.

[BigB0882]

If the noname system stays intact and farther south ( as it appears it might) that a east shift in models is likely to occur as the interaction between the two systems will accelerate nate northward sooner.

Will a faster northward motion mean it beats the front even more? I could see that being a solution where the end result is almost the same because it won't have time to begin hooking, although the current NHC forecast has the hook so close to landfall that perhaps it won't matter anyway, at least for initial landfall.

[tolakram]

If the noname system stays intact and farther south ( as it appears it might) that a east shift in models is likely to occur as the interaction between the two systems will accelerate nate northward sooner.

I am a bit skeptical that a naked swirl near Florida is going to effect Nate. The upper level low in front of that swirl might, but I think both models take that into account, unless it's an unexpected feature (I have not been looking at upper level forecasts).

[Aric Dunn]

If the noname system stays intact and farther south ( as it appears it might) that a east shift in models is likely to occur as the interaction between the two systems will accelerate nate northward sooner.

I am a bit skeptical that a naked swirl near Florida is going to effect Nate. The upper level low in front of that swirl might, but I think both models take that into account, unless it's an unexpected feature (I have not been looking at upper level forecasts).

a pressure of 1005 mb and a larger circulation will most certainly affect it. some sort of fujwhara or gyre motion is inevitable at this point and likely already starting.

[Aric Dunn]

If the noname system stays intact and farther south ( as it appears it might) that a east shift in models is likely to occur as the interaction between the two systems will accelerate nate northward sooner.

I am a bit skeptical that a naked swirl near Florida is going to effect Nate. The upper level low in front of that swirl might, but I think both models take that into account, unless it's an unexpected feature (I have not been looking at upper level forecasts).

a pressure of 1005 mb and a larger circulation will most certainly affect it. some sort of fujwhara or gyre motion is inevitable at this point and likely already starting.

sorry for the crudeness.. not a artist.. as the noname system has organized the last 24 hours the two systems have become entrained in the larger gyre. it is pretty clear thay are beginning to feel each other.. I would wager the noname system accelerates west for the next 24 hours then wsw while nate begins to turn more due north and accelerate then bend back nnw to nw as it moves into the gulf then back n to ne as the trough grabs it.. all the while the noname system drops wsw then sw.. stalls over BOC of yucatan penisula ( assuming it still intact by that time) than gets drawn north behind nate...

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5 <--- the set up can be seen here pretty well. already the inflow from the noname system is expanding and pulling moisture and energy north away from nate.. nate will follow any lowering of pressure to its north ( along with the upper low/trough)

I cant see the dynamics of the UKMET just the plot points ... but the track it has is very similar to what I just mentioned. I dont know if that is what the UKMET is showing though.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-rgb.html