2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[gatorcane]

UKMET has development in the same area as Canadian. However, it only goes out to 6 days. Will have to wait until the afternoon to see if it also shows a strong ridge to the north

Well the GFS builds quite a ridge over the Western Atlantic in the medium to long-range, it just doesn't develop the system the CMC and UKMET are developing thankfully.

120 to 200 hour animation below, looks like August or September with the ridge expanding west to Florida:

[sma10]

Best I can tell, the area that the CMC/UK eventually develops is the mess situated currently around 12.5 47.5. Hard to see something coming of this, but I guess worth watching the next couple days.

[toad strangler]

6z GFS pops a SW Caribbean storm way out in Alice in Wonderland range although ridging on steroids would bury it in SA

[WeatherEmperor]

12z Canadian is back to showing a tropical cyclone hitting South Florida from the east under a ridge over the SE Usa




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[WeatherEmperor]

The 12z UKMET shows a tropical cyclone similar to the Canadian. The run has it ending in the Bahamas heading WNW but keeps it week. Look at the blue line near the Bahamas to see it






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[gatorcane]

I know it is two weeks away but makes a lot of sense with La Nina and the high heat content in the Western Caribbean:

[WeatherEmperor]

I know it is two weeks away but makes a lot of sense with La Nina and the high heat content in the Western Caribbean:

://s1.postimg.org/36sj0afj9b/gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_52.png[/img]

Yes this makes perfect sense given La Nina. This is 2 runs in a row the GFS shows this so lets see what happens.

I see a lot of ridging when I switch to 500mb heights. Maybe Richard 2010 is a good analog??





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[gatorcane]

I know it is two weeks away but makes a lot of sense with La Nina and the high heat content in the Western Caribbean:

://s1.postimg.org/36sj0afj9b/gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_52.png[/img]

Yes this makes perfect sense given La Nina. This is 2 runs in a row the GFS shows this so lets see what happens.

I see a lot of ridging when I switch to 500mb heights. Maybe Richard 2010 is a good analog??

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/201710 ... 117eba.gif



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You would think in 12-14 days the troughs over the US/Gulf would be stronger and could allow something to get pulled north out of the Caribbean again potentially being a FL peninsula / South Florida issue if something were to develop in the area the GFS is developing the system. Climo strongly suggests a North then NE type track then though something into Central America is also possible.

[gatorcane]

GFS ensembles long-range show some hits on the SW Caribbean:

[gatorcane]

UKMET with new troubles for Bahamas and possibly South Florida on the horizon:

[SFLcane]

From what disturbance is this Gatorcane?

[SFLcane]

Its been some time since ive seen the entire Atlantic so convectively active

[WeatherEmperor]

Foe the third run in a row the GFS has a tropical cyclone in the WC long range. Lets see how much longer this lasts






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[toad strangler]

Foe the third run in a row the GFS has a tropical cyclone in the WC long range. Lets see how much longer this lasts






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And for the 3rd run in a row the GFS insists on ridging on steroids all around to the N which would push anything into C America. But it's fantasy range.

[gatorcane]

The GFS Western Caribbean storm in the long-range makes a lot of sense. I suspect this one is not a phantom. Note origins are from a low-latitude tropical wave not of gyre origin. You can see the wave exiting Africa at hour 90:



The ECMWF has this wave passing through the Lesser Antilles in 10 days:

[SuperMarioBros99thx]

If the second W. Carib system were to happen, i am thinking this will do some sort of Mitch re-run. No doubt that it will also be very destructive like Mitch.

[WeatherEmperor]

If the second W. Carib system were to happen, i am thinking this will do some sort of Mitch re-run. No doubt that it will also be very destructive like Mitch.

Here are some images from the long range 6z GFS this morning. This is like the 5th run in a row the GFS has a tropical system in the WC long range. I think by Monday next week we should have a better idea if this is real it phantom






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[gatorcane]

long-range CFS shows another wet-phase of MJO pulse in the Western Caribbean in a couple of weeks so no surprise the GFS has been showing development around that timeframe:

[toad strangler]

The long range 500mb pattern was showing consistent heavy duty ridging all over to the N of this would be system which would likely force it into C America. However, the 6z lightened up significantly on that idea. However, one thing that this has not really done since it started showing up is move up in time.

[SFLcane]

What is this feature dropping from the N Atlantic?? I noticed the some models developing a system and bringing it into the Bahamas. UKMET if i recall was showing this to yesterday. See ventrice tweet below.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/915874008754769920