ATL: NATE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[Ken711]

12Z ECMWF: Sheared mess landfalls near NOLA.

People near NOLA would be happier with this sheared mess run than a potential hurricane. Wonder if NHC will lower their intensity at 5:00 PM.

[Javlin]

This is odd and something I have been seeing all day this pic show 100kts @60 boot of LA when just a few moments ago it was like 70kts? any thoughts which is right? https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=114

[CrazyC83]

12Z ECMWF: Sheared mess landfalls near NOLA.

People near NOLA would be happier with this sheared mess run than a potential hurricane. Wonder if NHC will lower their intensity at 5:00 PM.

I would, for now at least, keep the landfall intensity at 65 kt to be on the safe side. That looks like about 45-50 kt (maximum) on the ECMWF extrapolating down the 850 winds, while the GFS keeps winds around 60 kt.

[tolakram]

[CrazyC83]

This is odd and something I have been seeing all day this pic show 100kts @60 boot of LA when just a few moments ago it was like 70kts? any thoughts which is right? https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=114

That's at the 850 level. That would translate into about 70-75 kt at the surface most likely given its structure.

[tolakram]

This is odd and something I have been seeing all day this pic show 100kts @60 boot of LA when just a few moments ago it was like 70kts? any thoughts which is right? https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=114

Those are 850mb winds, not surface winds.

10m elevation surface winds: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=498

[SunnyThoughts]

Do you guys think this G-4 recon mission today will be sampling around this no-name mess as well as areas in front of the storm? Will that perhaps change the models concerning track as well as intensity?

[kevin mathis]

This is odd and something I have been seeing all day this pic show 100kts @60 boot of LA when just a few moments ago it was like 70kts? any thoughts which is right? https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=114

They are both right...
You are looking at the 10 meter wind graphic @69knts
And the other is the 850 millibar level winds

[Aric Dunn]

Do you guys think this G-4 recon mission today will be sampling around this no-name mess as well as areas in front of the storm? Will that perhaps change the models concerning track as well as intensity?

anything will help at this point lol

[Javlin]

This is odd and something I have been seeing all day this pic show 100kts @60 boot of LA when just a few moments ago it was like 70kts? any thoughts which is right? https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=114

That's at the 850 level. That would translate into about 70-75 kt at the surface most likely given its structure.

Thks thought I was going nuts.

[PSUHiker31]

So far this is the most annoying forecast of the year with the models. Yesterday the Euro has a cat 3 into NW FL. Today it's a sheared mess into New Orleans. HWRF hanging tough onto a decently solid hurricane. SHIPS insistent on RI being quite possible.

At least the tracks are consolidating a bit. We desperately need that upper air data.

[chaser1]

I am afraid and am stuck here. House is on the gulf. I can't leave. My daughter won't let me get the boys out and I have no clue how if she changes her mind. I am down to one car AND hubby will be stuck in nola with it. I don't want to be here alone.

Its understandable but stay calm 'cause for the moment, most indications are that Nate may have trouble becoming all that strong. Land interaction is your friend right now and for the moment, the storm is struggling while over Central America. The other thing to consider is that once in the Gulf, there's a good chance it'll be moving quick enough that it'll be moving under upper level conditions that will probably keep the storm from getting that strong. Another thing that's a very real possibility is that Nate's track in the Northern Gulf of Mexico might begin to tilt a bit more to the NNE or N.E. before landfall and if that were to mean it making landfall to the East of you, than you surely would get less bad weather then if it came right at you (or just to your west).

Lastly, being that you are immediately on the coast, I would think that mandatory evacuations would be required if a hurricane was 24 hours from coming right at you. Maybe it would make you feel better if you were to call your local authorities now (police, fire and rescue, township, etc) just to ask if they have any contingency plans to help those evacuate from flood prone areas "IF" a hurricane were to appear to definitely threaten your area? You may be relieved to find out that Police and Fire may have plans to help evacuate the coastline if and when necessary. That would certainly give you a little more peace of mind and can then concentrate on making a list of special things and documents that you might consider gathering IF you actually have to get out of harms way. Right now though, I think we all have to wait at least another 24 hours before anyone has a really good idea exactly where this storm is likely to go.

[stormlover2013]

Also, the strong cold front that the euro has been showing is slower and weaker on this run!!! main players is the other wave and the high pressure over Florida

[Steve]

12Z ECMWF: Sheared mess landfalls near NOLA.

People near NOLA would be happier with this sheared mess run than a potential hurricane. Wonder if NHC will lower their intensity at 5:00 PM.

I would, for now at least, keep the landfall intensity at 65 kt to be on the safe side. That looks like about 45-50 kt (maximum) on the ECMWF extrapolating down the 850 winds, while the GFS keeps winds around 60 kt.

990mb isn't brutal by any stretch. But it's at least formidable and will mean lots of power outages throughout SE LA and SW MS. Gulfport has Cruisin' the Coast and also the Mississippi Gulf Coast Music Festival is this weekend. So those events are in jeopardy which sucks for them as they're kind of on the rebound right now.

[gatorcane]

GFS and Euro hit LA in 72 hours. Consensus pretty good on that state seeing a landfall right now. Fortunately the storm is not very strong but we know intensity forecasts are difficult.

[CrazyC83]

People near NOLA would be happier with this sheared mess run than a potential hurricane. Wonder if NHC will lower their intensity at 5:00 PM.

I would, for now at least, keep the landfall intensity at 65 kt to be on the safe side. That looks like about 45-50 kt (maximum) on the ECMWF extrapolating down the 850 winds, while the GFS keeps winds around 60 kt.

990mb isn't brutal by any stretch. But it's at least formidable and will mean lots of power outages throughout SE LA and SW MS. Gulfport has Cruisin' the Coast and also the Mississippi Gulf Coast Music Festival is this weekend. So those events are in jeopardy which sucks for them as they're kind of on the rebound right now.

They would be more for extreme SE LA, SE MS and SW AL, as there won't be much of anything west of the center if the ECMWF verifies.

[chaser1]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/915998058533539840

Sometimes I really wish Joe "thought" in English.

[tatertawt24]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/915998058533539840

[gotabyte]

Just joined site today.

I live just to the East of New Orleans(Slidell) and I'm having to tell people here what is going on. Most don't seem to pay attention to local news anymore. They think I'm joking when mentioning Hurricane hitting here. I keep getting told "That thing is going to Florida".

Picked up generator gas earlier today and supplies and noticed stores had normal traffic.

We may be without power for a few days from trees falling but with generator and fuel we should be good.

[bella_may]

I would, for now at least, keep the landfall intensity at 65 kt to be on the safe side. That looks like about 45-50 kt (maximum) on the ECMWF extrapolating down the 850 winds, while the GFS keeps winds around 60 kt.

990mb isn't brutal by any stretch. But it's at least formidable and will mean lots of power outages throughout SE LA and SW MS. Gulfport has Cruisin' the Coast and also the Mississippi Gulf Coast Music Festival is this weekend. So those events are in jeopardy which sucks for them as they're kind of on the rebound right now.

They would be more for extreme SE LA, SE MS and SW AL, as there won't be much of anything west of the center if the ECMWF verifies.

Hopefully it'll move fast so we won't have to deal with any flooding