ATL: NATE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[SunnyThoughts]

Rick Scott declared a state of emergency for Florida concerning Nate, even though models have all moved west. Don't know what to think lol

[Agua]

actually a bigger reason is that right now its only forecast to be a T.S. - if it were heading to LA as a potential major or higher there would be MUCH more activity here. As it is people aren't tuned in because Nate looks to be pretty wimpy. Of course that could change.

I don't know if its a "bigger" reason, but it certainly is a large contributing factor. I thought about it as well after I'd posted. People aren't interested in what, presently at least, looks likely to amount to nothing more than a rainy muddled mess.

[StormingB81]

Rick Scott declared a state of emergency for Florida concerning Nate, even though models have all moved west. Don't know what to think lol

A state of emergency opens up funds and resources to be prepared. Better to be prepared than caught off guard and being reactive instead of proactive. I rather him do it and not need it and need it and it wasn't done

[AMeyer614]

Voluntary evacuation of Grand Isle, La starting tomorrow.

http://wgno.com/2017/10/05/voluntary-ev ... torm-nate/

[bevgo]

I know I am nuts to be afraid but I went through Katrina here and I think I have some PTSD. I am really afraid. I will call and see if there are any plans for evacuate though. Thanks for the suggestion.

[gtalum]

Rick Scott declared a state of emergency for Florida concerning Nate, even though models have all moved west. Don't know what to think lol

A state of emergency opens up funds and resources to be prepared. Better to be prepared than caught off guard and being reactive instead of proactive. I rather him do it and not need it and need it and it wasn't done

Yes, and he can then direct those resources to LA, MS, or AL if they need it.

[wxman57]

I am afraid and am stuck here. House is on the gulf. I can't leave. My daughter won't let me get the boys out and I have no clue how if she changes her mind. I am down to one car AND hubby will be stuck in nola with it. I don't want to be here alone.

I think that Ocean Springs may see southerly winds 25-40 mph on Sunday morning. A long fetch of onshore wind may push tides on the MS coast up to 5-6 feet above normal. This may be enough to reach Highway 90.

[bella_may]

I am afraid and am stuck here. House is on the gulf. I can't leave. My daughter won't let me get the boys out and I have no clue how if she changes her mind. I am down to one car AND hubby will be stuck in nola with it. I don't want to be here alone.

I think that Ocean Springs may see southerly winds 25-40 mph on Sunday morning. A long fetch of onshore wind may push tides on the MS coast up to 5-6 feet above normal. This may be enough to reach Highway 90.

Do you think we'll have to deal with any flooding rain? Hopefully it moves fast

[tailgater]

Shear is going to have to back off really quickly for Nate to intensify much at all.

[tropicwatch]

Rick Scott declared a state of emergency for Florida concerning Nate, even though models have all moved west. Don't know what to think lol

Florida doesn't like to get caught with its pants down. Basically it is a just to get things put in motion before hand instead of after, which slows recovery efforts.

[SunnyThoughts]

Spending a lot of time over land. Maybe by the time it gets back over water, the core will be so disrupted it will never re-strengthen at all. One can hope.

[hurricaneCW]

Spending a lot of time over land. Maybe by the time it gets back over water, the core will be so disrupted it will never re-strengthen at all. One can hope.

It was barely a TS before it hit land so there was not much of a core to begin with. Land doesn't disrupt TD and TS too much since they're not fully developed yet.

[CrazyC83]

Shear is going to have to back off really quickly for Nate to intensify much at all.
https://image.ibb.co/gKssBG/wg8shr.gif

With that, it might just decouple and dissipate before it even reaches the Yucatan...I think the problem is that Nate is running into the shear axis, and not parallel with it. If this was heading on a Paloma-like track, I'd expect a monster hurricane. But instead it is running into the wall.

[galaxy401]

Spending a lot of time over land. Maybe by the time it gets back over water, the core will be so disrupted it will never re-strengthen at all. One can hope.

That's only for strong storms. There have been weak storms that rapidly intensified after emerging over water again.

[SoupBone]

Shear is going to have to back off really quickly for Nate to intensify much at all.

I mentioned this, this morning, and NDG said that shear isn't forecast to lessen until tomorrow. I took that to mean current conditions do not matter, relative to shear.

[LesKat]

Keeping an eye on him here in New Orleans. Went and got some water and wine from the store at lunch. Going to get my backup tank for the grill switched out and cat food. Hopefully stays low intensity as it is now.

[CrazyC83]

I can't help to think back to Erika, which all models suggested would be a hurricane hitting Florida, yet shear was not diagnosed as well as it was and it ended up dissipating?

Honestly, I would issue no more than a TS Watch tonight for the northern Gulf coast (as the 48 hour window opens by the 10 pm advisory). I'd wait until tomorrow to issue a Hurricane Watch if one is even warranted.

[Sanibel]

Good thing it went over land because you can see the center was really starting to spin up...

[bevgo]

Thanks wxman57. I can handle that much of a rise. That helps. Katrina only put about 2-3 feet in the house. Actually I'm not sure. One source said 8 feet but flood insurance only paid out 20000.00 so I doubt 8 feet. I was not in this house then. The house next door is gone. Just a slab now. I am going to make sure my battery back up is charged and put it in the attic with my recipe saw. At least if it floods I can escape.

I'm still scared though. I keep hearing about RI and get scared again. There will be little sleep until this is over. I will NOT be in this situation next year.

[Sciencerocks]

Looks like the 00z gfs last night was right after all...
1. Moved west-northwestward far inland in central america
2. Likely much weaker as it makes it into the carribbean again.
3. Much weaker.

Looks like the model isn't out to lunch as we thought...The last 6-12 hours before landfall of irma most thought the same thing and the gfs was right on that one.