ATL: NATE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/NASA/status/916069813377740800

[N2FSU]

NWS Tallahassee Discussion earlier this morning:

“Further, guidance seems to suggest a burst of convection on the north side of Nate later
tonight, though they disagree regarding how that will affect the
future track of Nate. The GFS and to some extent the Canadian
suggest this development will generate a secondary area of low
pressure leading Nate into the Gulf. Subsequently, the interaction
between Nate and this new weak area of low pressure acts to
deflect Nate a little further east early in it`s track in the
Gulf. The ECMWF, while it still has the convection on the north
side of Nate, it does not develop a secondary area of low pressure
and keeps Nate on a steady WNW track. To me, this seems a bit
more reasonable.”

That’s some pretty intense convection developing NE of Nate.

[pavelbure224]

The area just below Cuba looks better than Nate. What could that be?

[hiflyer]

So current track has the center of Nate (as a trop Storm) going inland just below Cancun and popping back out just above during early to late evening tonight. Fast storm. So far not seeing any major flight cancels for the area as yet.

[N2FSU]

The area just below Cuba looks better than Nate. What could that be?

I mentioned that in a post over in the model thread. NWS Tallahassee had an interesting discussion relating to that.

[GCANE]

Kermit's radar at CoC

[Big Easy Breeze]

The area just below Cuba looks better than Nate. What could that be?

Tstorms

[GCANE]

Drop just north of the CoC.
Awesome LL Lapse Rate for Nate to move into.
Could see some explosive convection today.

[Big Easy Breeze]

Seems like subtle eastward adjustment in the model trends overnight perhaps.

Where?

[Dean4Storms]

06z GFS has Nate just outside the NHC track cone to the East at 18hrs.

[Dean4Storms]

I think the Hurricane Watches should be further eastward to at least Pensacola, the expected turn more NNE could be sooner or even sharper than anticipated. Think Charley 04

[Ivanhater]

Looks like models showing a sharper NE hook near landfall..that would bring the worst near Mississippi/Alabama border to NW Florida. Interesting to see if this trend continues today

[latitude_20]

So current track has the center of Nate (as a trop Storm) going inland just below Cancun and popping back out just above during early to late evening tonight. Fast storm. So far not seeing any major flight cancels for the area as yet.

Not sure there will be any cancellations. Delays, maybe since some traffic will have to be re-routed. I've seen the Cancun airport stay open during tropical storms.

[NDG]

X is where both NOAA and AF recons have found the broad COC of Nate to be this morning, the big push of southerly winds to the east of it towards an area of convergence and UL divergence near Cuba is stealing a lot of the inflow into Nate.

[ronjon]

I think the Hurricane Watches should be further eastward to at least Pensacola, the expected turn more NNE could be sooner or even sharper than anticipated. Think Charley 04

Agree. I think when hurricane warnings are issued it will need to be extended east to at least p'cola. Have to watch the trends here. There could still be some shifts 72 hrs out. Either the trough is a little stronger/faster or the globals are simulating a stronger storm causing a slight eastward trend in the guidance.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Air Force through 7:11am EDT.
NOAA through 7:09am EDT.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Air Force:

URNT12 KNHC 061124
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL162017
A. 06/11:09:20Z
B. 17 deg 36 min N
084 deg 39 min W
C. 850 mb 1388 m
D. 36 kt
E. 294 deg 55 nm
F. 015 deg 30 kt
G. 294 deg 54 nm
H. 997 mb
I. 16 C / 1524 m
J. 18 C / 1525 m
K. 8 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 08
O. 0.02 / 6 nm
P. AF308 0516A NATE OB 08
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 52 KT 132 / 34 NM 11:20:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 360 / 3 KT

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 6th day of the month at 11:24Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF98-5308
Storm Number & Year: 16 in 2017
Storm Name: Nate (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 5
Observation Number: 08
A. Time of Center Fix: 6th day of the month at 11:09:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 17°36'N 84°39'W (17.6N 84.65W)
B. Center Fix Location: 234 statute miles (377 km) to the E (88°) from Belize City, Belize.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,388m (4,554ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 36kts (~ 41.4mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 55 nautical miles (63 statute miles) to the WNW (294°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 15° at 30kts (From the NNE at ~ 34.5mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 54 nautical miles (62 statute miles) to the WNW (294°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 997mb (29.44 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 8°C (46°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 6 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
Maximum Outbound and Flight Level Wind: 52kts (~ 59.8mph) which was observed 34 nautical miles (39 statute miles) to the SE (132°) from the flight level center at 11:20:30Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 360° at 3kts (From the N at 3mph)







Air Force through 7:21am EDT.
NOAA through 7:19am EDT.

[tolakram]

GFS 6Z

[Dean4Storms]

Big swing east from the GFS from yesterday when it was all west of NO. Has me a bit concerned here along the NW FL Panhandle Coast. Everyone here heard it was going to be LA problem and nobody here has prepared one iota. This keeps relocating or getting pulled toward the deeper convection to its East and/or turns just 50 miles sooner once in the Gulf and extrapolated a bunch of peeps over this way are going to be caught with their pants down.

[srainhoutx]

As mentioned a week or so ago, Nate looks like a typical sloppy Monsoonal Gyre Storm not too dissimilar from Cindy back in June. Heavy rainfall to the East of the "center" with gusty squalls appear to be the biggest threat at this time.