ATL: NATE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[NotSparta]

The Gfs was a bit east from its last run, if that means anything

it doesn't. It has 2 areas of vorticity doing a Fujiwara around each other. This, after it develops an even stronger area of vorticity on the Pacific side of Nicaragua

That run really describes the new GFS, spinning up random EPAC systems and throwing some convective feedback in there too

[tolakram]

0Z Euro is interesting, with near dissipation in the central Gulf. Both models showing a slowdown and east curve around landfall. Precip may be a big concern IMO.

[tolakram]

6z GFS total precip

[cajunwx]

Big swing east from the GFS from yesterday when it was all west of NO. Has me a bit concerned here along the NW FL Panhandle Coast. Everyone here heard it was going to be LA problem and nobody here has prepared one iota. This keeps relocating or getting pulled toward the deeper convection to its East and/or turns just 50 miles sooner once in the Gulf and extrapolated a bunch of peeps over this way are going to be caught with their pants down.

From what I keep reading in the discussion thread it'll just be a "typical sloppy Monsoonal Gyre Storm".

[GCANE]

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Vortex messages from current and previous Air Force recon missions.

[tropicwatch]

A large area might get wet if that moisture persists north and east of the center as Nate moves north.

[Emmett_Brown]

Interesting that recon is finding the center a little bit east of the NHC track forecast. Perhaps Nate will pass through the Yucatan channel? Intensity forecast implications if it does; more time over water.

[Dean4Storms]

Big swing east from the GFS from yesterday when it was all west of NO. Has me a bit concerned here along the NW FL Panhandle Coast. Everyone here heard it was going to be LA problem and nobody here has prepared one iota. This keeps relocating or getting pulled toward the deeper convection to its East and/or turns just 50 miles sooner once in the Gulf and extrapolated a bunch of peeps over this way are going to be caught with their pants down.

From what I keep reading in the discussion thread it'll just be a "typical sloppy Monsoonal Gyre Storm".

And how many times have we seen a sheared sloppy system in the Gulf end up with much stronger winds especially east of the center? In no way thinking a major here but I would not be surprised to see a 90mph storm eventually.

[caneman]

Interesting that recon is finding the center a little bit east of the NHC track forecast. Perhaps Nate will pass through the Yucatan channel? Intensity forecast implications if it does; more time over water.

How much East? Could be big implications down the line
Wonder if the center is getting tugged on by that deeper convection to the N.E

[NotSparta]

Interesting that recon is finding the center a little bit east of the NHC track forecast. Perhaps Nate will pass through the Yucatan channel? Intensity forecast implications if it does; more time over water.

It could also hit the loop current if it goes east, but by that time it'll be racing through the GoM

[alanstover]

"A large area might get wet if that moisture persists north and east of the center as Nate moves north."

Not to mention that strong convection on the west side of Guatemala. Sure hope that doesn't get pulled across the mountains here or we'll have a disaster here, too.
Would be interesting to hear someone explain the cause of that rainfall on the west side.

[wxman57]

Strongest winds are well east of the center, and in an area free of convection. Hard to strengthen rapidly without convection over the center. Model trends overnight are just east of New Orleans. Landfall (final) near Gulfport, MS. I would think that Nate would be weakening at landfall, as it will be moving at about 20 mph by then. Could produce a storm surge into Mississippi of 6-7 ft. That's enough to wash over Hwy 90 between Biloxi and Gulfport.

[AlabamaDave]

Anyone else find it strange that NHC has landfall a little west of Pascagoula, MS but only has a Hurricane Warning in effect to the MS/AL border? Last night I thought this meant they were anticipating more westward shifts in the track, but this morning the track is a little farther east.

[GCANE]

Looks like a long-duration tower is leading a CCW convective burst on the SE quad.

[Dean4Storms]

With the latest findings and shifts eastward with GFS think NHC will come eastward a bit with Watches and Warnings later. You just about have to with most of the weather expected east of the center.

[Emmett_Brown]

Interesting that recon is finding the center a little bit east of the NHC track forecast. Perhaps Nate will pass through the Yucatan channel? Intensity forecast implications if it does; more time over water.

How much East? Could be big implications down the line
Wonder if the center is getting tugged on by that deeper convection to the N.E

If you take a look at post #462 above from Chris_In_Tampa, you can see it nicely; the 7am fix was N/NE of the 5am position, and is now to the right of the track somewhat. Not sure if it will affect track in the long range or not, sometimes these things are wobbles, sometimes they are reformations of sorts. It will be interesting to watch, since it may have less interaction with the Yucatan later today if the trend continues.

[Dean4Storms]

Yea, I'm just east of Destin by 8 miles or so, a mile as a bird flies from the Gulf and 400yds from the Choctawhatchee Bay so I am watching this closely. Right now just expecting squalls and maybe gusts to 45mph along with a possible tornado or two. But that track comes eastward a bit things get a bit worse here.

[NDG]

LLC almost free of deep convection near it, though a few storms are starting to form just to the east of it, still moving fast, as if it decoupled from the mid level vorticity last night.

[stormlover2013]

big swing lol, come on guys it's going to be a sloppy system and rain event with some descent winds..lets hope and pray nothing worse but I think the models have a grasp on the system, I say low cat 1....but models are good 48 hours out.....they have been pretty consistent with the destination the last over the last couple of runs