ATL: NATE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[Emmett_Brown]

Nate is moving near the eastern edge of the Euro 0z ensembles: http://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidance/images/AL16_2017100600_ECENS_large.png?55001505

[tropicwatch]

Looking at the direction the hh is going, center could be north and east of previous forecast cone. Will find out in a few minutes.

[emeraldislenc]

The 11 am advisory will be interesting

[sunnyday]

So the people on Florida's west coast may get rain? Any chance at all of their s e coast getting anything?

[Wx_Warrior]

Odd question:

A friend has a flight out of NOLA at 6am on Sunday. Yay or Nay?

[Big Easy Breeze]

The 11 am advisory will be interesting

For what reasons?

[NDG]

Odd question:

A friend has a flight out of NOLA at 6am on Sunday. Yay or Nay?

I'm sure the airline will make that decision for him/her, if it gets canceled he/she will not be going any where

[BobHarlem]

The 11 am advisory will be interesting

For what reasons?

I'd assume for how they will react to the east of track motion observed so far.

[runnergal70]

I am an old timer that lurks and appreciate the info. I don’t post a lot but NATE has my interest since I am across the bay from Mobile on the Eastern Shore. Don’t know what to expect from this one. The area is prepare where I live. Still under Tropical Storm Warning and the weather is beautiful here. Hard to believe that a storm is on its way. While I am ok with my two daughters (live alone), my oldest is in Birmingham at college (first year) and I am a little worry about her. Can anyone tell me what Birmingham is going to get from NATE. I do have James Spann on my computer but you know that worried mom feeling. Interested to hear if Birmingham will get weather? I know we are on the coast. Been through my share in my almost 50 years.

[wxman57]

Anyone else find it strange that NHC has landfall a little west of Pascagoula, MS but only has a Hurricane Warning in effect to the MS/AL border? Last night I thought this meant they were anticipating more westward shifts in the track, but this morning the track is a little farther east.

That's the problem when their track forecast points are 24 hours apart. The 36 and 48 hour track points are connected by a straight line rather than a curve. Landfall should be closer to Gulfport, not near Pascagoula. Hurricane-force winds may only extend out 20-25 miles from the center.

[stormlover2013]

guys listen to the expert!! he's a good one!!

[Bamagirl2408]

Did they update anything but coordinates?

[wxman57]

I am an old timer that lurks and appreciate the info. I don’t post a lot but NATE has my interest since I am across the bay from Mobile on the Eastern Shore. Don’t know what to expect from this one. The area is prepare where I live. Still under Tropical Storm Warning and the weather is beautiful here. Hard to believe that a storm is on its way. While I am ok with my two daughters (live alone), my oldest is in Birmingham at college (first year) and I am a little worry about her. Can anyone tell me what Birmingham is going to get from NATE. I do have James Spann on my computer but you know that worried mom feeling. Interested to hear if Birmingham will get weather? I know we are on the coast. Been through my share in my almost 50 years.

Assuming Nate moves inland on the MS coast near Gulfport, the Mobile Bay area may see southerly winds 30-40 mph with higher gusts when Nate moves ashore prior to sunrise on Sunday. You could see 3-5 inches of rain as well. Tides at the mouth of Mobile Bay may run about 3 feet above normal Sunday morning. Northern parts of Mobile Bay could see tides around 5 ft above normal.

Over in Birmingham, max winds 20-25 mph. Possibly heavy rain there during the day on Sunday (3-5 inches). Nate will weaken quite rapidly as it races NE across Alabama during the day on Sunday. It may not have any more tropical storm force winds near the center by the time it crosses the Mississippi/Alabama border.

[wxman57]

Did they update anything but coordinates?

No. No reason to make any changes. Models are in very good agreement.

[wxman57]

The 11 am advisory will be interesting

For what reasons?

I'd assume for how they will react to the east of track motion observed so far.

Models have been indicating more of an "S" pattern for the track than a straight line for the past day or two. This included an easterly jog today, which we are observing. The NHC's track was more of a straight line, smoothing out the "S". This is not significant as far as the final landfall in SE LA and MS, but it may mean a bit less wind for Cancun/Cozumel.

[GBPackMan]

While most think of the localized conditions, there are multiple other pieces to this that many are not taking into account. Typically for Aug/Sept, much of the US is still warm, so even if dryer air is drawn into a storm, it loses just a little of its intensity... Some years the heat continues on into Oct which fuels many of these Gulf storms, BUT... This year, the Rockies are already seeing snow, and the jet stream is dipping lower across the central plains drawing down that cooler dry air much further south. So once you look at that continually being drawn into this storm, the gyre with the upper low that was over the keys being "sucked" in to Nate, and the Ramona remnants to the southwest as a secondary gyre sapping much of the convection as well... So even if it misses the Yucatan and stays over the Gulf, it will remain weaker due to the other factors at play.
My prediction is weak Cat 1 75/80mph running over some of the LA islands and a Mobile, AL landing. 3-5" of rain for this region is nothing, we get more than that during the daily summer thunderstorms, as we also get 60-80mph gusts lasting several hours during many of these storms as well.

Stay aware regardless.

[PTPatrick]

12 z nam shifted to Baldwin county landfall. I mean it's the nam, but still. Depicts a pretty lopsided mid range TS looking thing at 980s MLB...nothing to write home about.

[Blown Away]

@40 miles off track to the E... Seems to be steady NNW now and not sure it will wobble back on track... LLC still exposed...

[MGC]

The good news is that Nate lacks an inner core. Sometimes tropical cyclones never recover from a transit across land and never intensify much. Lets hope this is the case with Nate. Bad new is the northward jog will likely cause Nate to transit the Yucatan Channel and loop current. Bit of a shift east in the track at 11am. I'm on the weak side now. Still it will be hard to time the turn to the NE so I am still in play.....MGC

[runnergal70]

My area just went under a Hurricane Warning. (Baldwin County in Alabama)