ATL: NATE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[stormreader]

There is a tropical system to the north and to the west (Pacific) that is robbing Nate right now. Those have to get out of the way for the intensification to occur.

But I think the west side of the storm, looks pretty nice, which I think bodes well for intensification in the short term.

[tarheelprogrammer]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/916410321518120961

[stormreader]

That Euro run is slightly west of the NHC track. Maybe initial landfall is right on but it continues north into Louisiana instead of hooking towards MS/AL coastline.

Yeah, you're not noticing that immediate NE hook at landfall on the last run. Would make more of a substantial hit on SE La with that run. Looks to be really intensifying, too. Should be a hurricane shortly. Wonder if NHC will adjust track back west a tad, or perhaps wait to see 0Z Euro run. Been out of touch today. Haven't seen most recent GFS. NHC really does like to tag very close to Euro. The lack of a NE hook at landfall could make quite a difference in the metro New Orleans area, if that plays out.

They already did. Went from MS/AL line to Biloxi

But I'm looking at that lack of hook on last Euro run. If that comes to pass, then Miss-Al would still be on stronger side, with surge etc... but of course the center or eye would be confined to SE La. Pretty important when looking at wind effects etc...especially if it does come in as a Cat 2.

[bella_may]

Finally a fresh microwave pass.

I've seen many cat 1 hurricanes look worse than this

[PSUHiker31]

That microwave pass has me worried about tonight

[psyclone]

Please take a look at some 850mb temp maps. There is plenty of warm air all across the GOM, Caribbean and even into Texas, New Mexico and Arizona where 850mb temps are anywhere from 15-25C. There is no upper level cool air being sucked into this storm. Period. There's a reason models show this intensifying fairly quickly in the GOM and usually when in a favorable environment as depicted with high RH, low shear and very warm waters you see a storm that deepens very quickly. The Hurricane Center also is the best in the business and they have been constantly mentioning the possibility of RI and the favorable environment.

True BUT warm air does not necessarily mean humid air once you get more than 100-200ft off sea level. Most people focus on 100-200 miles at sea level near the path of the eye/center, so much of their expectations and suggestions are based on ground/sea level observations, which is why many here are expecting and suggesting RI.... Versus the models showing it failing to intensify too much are also looking at med and upper level interactions which can keep the core from warming up too much/too fast, or some mid to high level dry air continually interacting as is common in October storms. This is why they are still suggesting a weak Cat 1 at US landfall.

100 or 200 feet off sea level? I find that statement baffling. the atmosphere is incredibly juiced over the Florida peninsula with Ruskin mentioning 2.2-2.4" PWATS in their earlier discussion. that would be impressive at any point in midsummer let alone early Oct and that air is advecting westward over the Gulf. I have no idea whether Nate will strengthen a good bit before landfall but based on the high octane airmass to the north and the rapidly improving satellite signature this afternoon a good round of intensification may be underway right now. Folks in the hurricane warning area should be expecting a hurricane and hoping for weakening. But as of now it looks like things are steadily escalating.

[CrazyC83]

Finally a fresh microwave pass.

I've seen many cat 1 hurricanes look worse than this

Given the fast movement, it could reach hurricane intensity even if the structure looks like crap. I don't see much of an inner core at low levels, but that doesn't mean it can't reach hurricane status.

[PTPatrick]

18z gfs is still thinking Biloxi and Nam came back to Biloxi at 18z. If that holds right front quad will be mainly in Jackson county... Thinking now will go ahead and have fam prep to roll out in the morning, esp in light of recent trends. Surge is now supposed to be 5-8...8 puts it at the foundation(house on stilts tho). I don't want them to lose 4 cars if this thing decides to outperform tomorrow. I guess they can watch a little tomorrow morning but I'm telling them to be ready to roll out by lunch.

[blazess556]

Nate continues to quickly intensify. The NOAA plane just measured an extrapolated pressure of 983.0mb.

[Ubuntwo]

Recon found 983mbars extrapolated sea level pressure, probably a hurricane right now.

[NDG]

Based on the recon my thinking that the pressure was at 990 mb might be too high

[aperson]

Nate continues to quickly intensify. The NOAA plane just measured an extrapolated pressure of 983.0mb.

Well that definitely outdid my expecations

[PSUHiker31]

Nate continues to quickly intensify. The NOAA plane just measured an extrapolated pressure of 983.0mb.

This is really starting to feel like Opal when people went to bed with a minimal hurricane and woke up to a strong 4

[Alyono]

something looks off, those winds are quite low. I'd wait for a dropsonde to be sure there is not an extrapolation error going on

[supercane4867]

The impressive pressure drop today is pretty sobering. For those who think Nate will struggle to reach minimum CAT1 need to wake up...

[PTPatrick]

Somebody there mentioned opal. I don't think this will be an opal but you just never really know. I remember waking up to her as a 4 and it was the first time I saw a major look of worry in my dad's eyes for a storm. Anything really can happen in the gulf and I've learned never to underestimate these systems. You just never know. I always lean toward overpreparedness.

[Aric Dunn]

Nate continues to quickly intensify. The NOAA plane just measured an extrapolated pressure of 983.0mb.

that would be some rapid Intensification.. winds will eventually respond to that..

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 062142
AF307 0716A NATE HDOB 09 20171006
213230 2641N 08804W 3979 07619 0402 -140 //// 108021 022 /// /// 05
213300 2639N 08803W 3976 07622 0399 -141 //// 114020 021 /// /// 05
213330 2637N 08802W 3977 07631 0400 -140 //// 142018 022 /// /// 05
213400 2634N 08801W 3978 07619 0401 -146 //// 162022 023 /// /// 05
213430 2632N 08800W 3976 07626 0400 -150 //// 161020 023 /// /// 05
213500 2630N 08759W 3976 07627 0400 -149 -179 158020 021 /// /// 03
213530 2628N 08758W 3979 07622 0401 -146 -182 155022 022 /// /// 03
213600 2625N 08757W 3978 07622 0401 -145 -189 152024 025 /// /// 03
213630 2623N 08756W 3978 07627 0402 -145 -194 148023 024 /// /// 03
213700 2621N 08756W 3978 07623 0401 -145 -194 144024 025 /// /// 03
213730 2619N 08755W 3979 07622 0402 -145 -192 142026 026 /// /// 03
213800 2617N 08754W 3976 07624 0401 -145 -192 141025 025 022 001 00
213830 2614N 08753W 3978 07622 0400 -144 -194 140023 024 024 000 00
213900 2612N 08752W 3979 07628 0401 -140 -204 141023 024 022 001 00
213930 2610N 08751W 3975 07632 0402 -140 -203 140022 023 024 000 00
214000 2608N 08750W 3979 07624 0402 -144 -195 139023 023 023 001 00
214030 2605N 08750W 3975 07623 0400 -143 -198 138021 022 023 001 00
214100 2603N 08749W 3980 07620 0400 -138 -210 138020 021 024 001 00
214130 2601N 08748W 3975 07626 0399 -135 -216 138021 022 024 001 00
214200 2559N 08747W 3978 07620 0400 -135 -218 141021 021 023 001 00
$$
;

[NDG]

NOAA recon is going to go through right over the SE quadrant, lets see what king of winds it reports.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 062152
AF307 0716A NATE HDOB 10 20171006
214230 2556N 08746W 3978 07622 0398 -135 -220 139020 021 024 001 00
214300 2556N 08746W 3978 07622 0399 -135 -214 139021 021 024 001 00
214330 2552N 08744W 3976 07622 0398 -135 -210 138022 022 024 000 00
214400 2550N 08743W 3977 07623 0399 -135 -212 137021 022 024 000 03
214430 2547N 08743W 3978 07622 0398 -135 -210 136020 021 023 001 00
214500 2545N 08742W 3978 07617 0398 -134 -214 135021 021 025 000 00
214530 2543N 08741W 3976 07622 0399 -130 -222 134021 021 025 000 00
214600 2541N 08740W 3979 07621 0398 -129 -228 134020 021 025 000 00
214630 2538N 08739W 3976 07622 0398 -125 -239 132019 021 024 000 00
214700 2536N 08738W 3978 07621 0399 -129 -225 130018 018 024 000 03
214730 2534N 08737W 3977 07630 0400 -129 -228 130018 018 024 000 00
214800 2532N 08736W 3978 07624 0399 -129 -226 129018 018 024 001 00
214830 2529N 08736W 3978 07620 0400 -130 -223 127018 019 025 000 00
214900 2527N 08735W 3978 07620 0399 -130 -223 124017 018 025 001 00
214930 2525N 08734W 3978 07622 0400 -129 -226 121018 018 024 000 00
215000 2522N 08733W 3978 07625 0400 -133 -217 121019 019 026 000 00
215030 2520N 08732W 3978 07625 0400 -135 -214 120018 019 026 000 00
215100 2518N 08731W 3978 07624 0401 -135 -211 121017 018 026 002 00
215130 2515N 08730W 3978 07621 0400 -134 -212 120018 018 025 000 00
215200 2513N 08729W 3975 07625 0400 -132 -218 118017 018 025 000 00
$$
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