WPAC: INVEST 96W

[euro6208]

96W INVEST 171006 0600 5.3N 157.6E WPAC 15 1010



Located very near the equator south of Pohnpei.

[euro6208]

The models were pretty bullish with this especially NAVGEM and GFS. GFS had a strong typhoon barreling towards Hainan. NAVGEM kinda drops it and GFS is much weaker.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Jason Nicholls‏ @jnmet
More
Conditions looking favourable for cyclone development in the South #China Sea late next week.

[euro6208]

It's quite favorable in that area now.

The upper-level trough will continue to dominate the Marianas
forecast today, and possibly into tonight. Afterward, much will
depend on exactly how much the tropical disturbance strengthens
and where it goes. The Canadian Ensemble has about as many
opinions on that as it has members, lots of spaghetti for
everyone...enough for an all you can eat feast! GFS and ECMWF-
Global are less aggressive and this will be a rain event if
anything. Even the Canadian though still only has a 10 percent
chance of 30 knot winds.

With visible satellite showing a buch of southwest wind flowing up
between Chuuk and Pohnpei though, this situation could get a bit
volatile. Even if this disturbance fizzles it would not take long
to spin up another if that flow keeps up.

GFS has been
the most determined with this system for strengthening, but
timeline still seems too quick. Will monitor this closely as it
heads west.

[euro6208]

Stronger on GFS. Very sloppy mess for Luzon and brings a typhoon to Hainan Island.

[euro6208]

GFS has a 976 mb typhoon making landfall over Luzon next week.

[euro6208]

EURO now in agreement with a GFS typhoon. Next name would be Khanun.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 6.2N 152.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.2N 153.2E, APPROXIMATELY 76
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT, BUT DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
071131Z METOP-A 89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE
EASTERN QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. A 071131Z ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS AN
ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND 15 TO 20 KNOT WESTERLY WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND STRONG DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A POINT SOURCE. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SLOW
DEVELOPMENT AND A WEST-NORTHWESTARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[doomhaMwx]

Models are indicating the possibility of Tropical Cyclone development over the Philippine Sea later this week, but it's quite unsure yet if that system is 96W... The system shown by the models may be another disturbance coming from this same general area...


96W INVEST 171008 0600 6.7N 152.0E WPAC 15 1006

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 6.5N 152.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.7N 152.0E, APPROXIMATELY 40
NM SOUTH OF CHUUK. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DETERIORATING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A RAPIDLY
WEAKENING MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS NO
DISCERNIBLE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AT THIS TIME. A
080457Z NOAA-19 89GHZ IMAGE ALSO SHOWS NO DISCERNIBLE LLCC. RECENT
SCATTEROMETER IMAGERY INDICATES NO CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION.
HOWEVER, GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP A BROAD, WEAK CIRCULATION OVER THE
NEXT TWO DAYS AND TRACK IT SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 6.7N 152.0E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

[doomhaMwx]

Also gone on NRL/FNMOC websites...