ATL: NATE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[bamajammer4eva]

From Twitter-not posting actual post since contains animation but here is the link
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/statu ... 0468875265

Philip Klotzbach‏Verified account @philklotzbach 47m47 minutes ago
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9 consecutive Atlantic named storms have reached hurricane (Franklin-#Nate) - the most consec Atlantic NS to reach hurricane since 1893.

[FLpanhandle91]

From Twitter-not posting actual post since contains animation but here is the link
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/statu ... 0468875265

Philip Klotzbach‏Verified account @philklotzbach 47m47 minutes ago
More
9 consecutive Atlantic named storms have reached hurricane (Franklin-#Nate) - the most consec Atlantic NS to reach hurricane since 1893.

That is an insane statistic.

[Aric Dunn]

Pressure falls temporarily paused, but wind field is becoming much better defined within inner-core. I think next 6 hours are key. If western eyewall closes off during this time then further RI is possible. Otherwise the 00Z HWRF solution could be possible.

agreed.. during which time the convection will likely dimish briefly while the eye clears out and the pressure drops...

[Aric Dunn]

anyone care to find me the AF VDM's ?

[Orlando]

To everyone who is in the path of this storm...you are in my thoughts.

[Jag95]

Pressure down another mb.

000
URNT12 KNHC 070506
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL162017
A. 07/04:46:20Z
B. 22 deg 58 min N
086 deg 24 min W
C. 850 mb 1328 m
D. 55 kt
E. 140 deg 16 nm
F. 218 deg 64 kt
G. 142 deg 18 nm
H. 987 mb
I. 19 C / 1526 m
J. 22 C / 1516 m
K. 20 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 08
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF307 0716A NATE OB 25
MAX FL WIND 89 KT 123 / 52 NM 03:05:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 195 / 5 KT

So, no longer an eyewall?

[NDG]

Where recon found COC on its last pass a few minutes ago.

[Usf11]

Can New Orleans handle another storm?

[NDG]

Pressure down another mb.

000
URNT12 KNHC 070506
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL162017
A. 07/04:46:20Z
B. 22 deg 58 min N
086 deg 24 min W
C. 850 mb 1328 m
D. 55 kt
E. 140 deg 16 nm
F. 218 deg 64 kt
G. 142 deg 18 nm
H. 987 mb
I. 19 C / 1526 m
J. 22 C / 1516 m
K. 20 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 08
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF307 0716A NATE OB 25
MAX FL WIND 89 KT 123 / 52 NM 03:05:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 195 / 5 KT

So, no longer an eyewall?

Not sure.

[Stormcenter]

Many of the models continue to depict Nate being a smallish storm at landfall, right now he sure doesn't like he will be.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 070512
AF307 0716A NATE HDOB 54 20171007
050230 2340N 08708W 8429 01505 0009 +188 +166 099048 048 026 002 03
050300 2341N 08710W 8424 01512 0010 +191 +163 099049 050 025 001 00
050330 2342N 08711W 8438 01501 0011 +195 +158 098047 048 022 002 00
050400 2344N 08713W 8427 01513 0012 +194 +153 099047 048 023 002 03
050430 2345N 08714W 8429 01510 0013 +194 +157 101046 047 026 000 03
050500 2346N 08716W 8429 01511 0015 +193 +161 102048 050 024 001 00
050530 2348N 08717W 8435 01508 0021 +185 +165 100049 050 023 000 03
050600 2349N 08719W 8432 01510 0025 +181 +160 098049 050 022 001 00
050630 2350N 08720W 8426 01519 0026 +181 +158 098046 048 024 000 00
050700 2352N 08722W 8427 01516 0027 +180 +152 100046 047 023 000 00
050730 2353N 08723W 8428 01520 0028 +182 +148 101047 047 024 001 00
050800 2355N 08725W 8433 01513 0026 +187 +146 103046 047 021 001 03
050830 2356N 08726W 8434 01514 0028 +186 +149 104045 046 022 000 03
050900 2357N 08728W 8433 01515 0027 +189 +153 105045 046 022 000 03
050930 2359N 08729W 8431 01518 0030 +186 +155 107043 046 022 000 00
051000 2400N 08731W 8429 01521 0030 +186 +155 108042 042 019 002 03
051030 2401N 08732W 8429 01522 0031 +186 +159 109043 043 023 002 00
051100 2403N 08734W 8429 01524 0030 +190 +157 110043 044 022 002 03
051130 2404N 08735W 8428 01524 0032 +186 +160 112043 043 023 001 00
051200 2405N 08737W 8433 01521 0032 +187 +161 112040 043 023 000 03
$$
;

[tropicwatch]

Don't know if the High pressure is weakening or not but we are down to around 1013mb's here in Panama City.

[Usf11]

I didn't get home until late tonight, and have been getting caught up on the pages of this thread. I am not a forecaster, as some of you know, but I feel joint pain during these storms. I have had pain off and on for a few days, but earlier today got better until about three hours ago. Now, the pains are back. That tells me that either the storm is getting much stronger or that it is getting closer to me, or it could be both, which would mean a wobble east. I don't think Orlando will get the full force of this storm, but we will get some rain and possibly some wind.

To everyone who is in the path of this storm...you are in my thoughts.

Me too. I crack my fingers a lot when a storm is close and for some reason I've been doing it a lot since Thursday. I have a feeling Tampa is going winds and lots of rain.

[FLpanhandle91]

Don't know if the High pressure is weakening or not but we are down to around 1013mb's here in Panama City.

1012 here in Fort Walton.

[NDG]

Don't know if the High pressure is weakening or not but we are down to around 1013mb's here in Panama City.

Mid level ridge (not surface ridge) is actually strengthening tonight just east of FL, this is what is keeping Nate from making that famous NNE heading towards the Bid bend area of FL as initially forecasted by the Euro.

[Alyono]

Pressure falls temporarily paused, but wind field is becoming much better defined within inner-core. I think next 6 hours are key. If western eyewall closes off during this time then further RI is possible. Otherwise the 00Z HWRF solution could be possible.

the HWRF is still having boundary layer issues. 850mb winds are 105 kts at landfall, yet surface winds are around 70 kts. Given what we've seen from the recon tonight, the surface winds should be closer to 85 kts

[vortex100]

Well, the models seem to be underestimating the strengthening ability of this storm. In fact, watch closely, this may be a surprising storm, that will be a very good case study in the future. Explosive, deep convection has been happening around the core recently. The central pressure is falling much faster than models forecast. This could be interesting.

[Audrey2Katrina]

Pressure is dropping much faster than anticipated. I was wondering, for a while, if this was going to be a redux of Cindy 2005, the forgotten storm--because of what happened 7 weeks later--but no way! This one is gearing more toward east MS/AL border area.

[AutoPenalti]

Title should be updated btw

[FLpanhandle91]

Really curious to see what the Euro does this run.