ATL: NATE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 071008
AF305 0816A NATE HDOB 10 20171007
095900 2551N 09131W 4099 07383 0374 -120 -191 156011 011 /// /// 03
095930 2550N 09129W 4098 07384 0373 -120 -191 155011 012 /// /// 03
100000 2549N 09127W 4099 07383 0373 -120 -192 154011 011 /// /// 03
100030 2547N 09125W 4098 07384 0372 -120 -193 162011 011 /// /// 03
100100 2546N 09124W 4098 07384 0373 -120 -194 162010 011 /// /// 03
100130 2544N 09122W 4100 07381 0372 -120 -194 160010 010 /// /// 03
100200 2543N 09120W 4101 07381 0372 -120 -194 153010 011 /// /// 03
100230 2542N 09118W 4099 07382 0372 -120 -194 146010 011 /// /// 03
100300 2540N 09116W 4098 07383 0372 -120 -194 148009 010 /// /// 03
100330 2539N 09114W 4102 07377 0370 -117 -194 157007 008 /// /// 03
100400 2538N 09113W 4133 07313 0361 -112 -193 161007 007 /// /// 03
100430 2536N 09111W 4196 07197 0353 -101 -192 156006 007 /// /// 03
100500 2535N 09109W 4267 07068 0343 -094 -189 163008 009 /// /// 03
100530 2534N 09107W 4329 06955 0334 -089 -186 142008 008 /// /// 03
100600 2532N 09105W 4385 06854 0326 -090 -183 119010 011 /// /// 03
100630 2531N 09103W 4446 06749 0319 -091 -178 114011 012 /// /// 03
100700 2530N 09102W 4503 06650 0313 -087 -172 121011 011 /// /// 03
100730 2528N 09100W 4566 06542 0306 -078 -165 122010 010 /// /// 03
100800 2527N 09058W 4656 06393 0296 -068 -157 118011 011 /// /// 03
100830 2526N 09056W 4750 06235 0285 -060 -150 107010 010 /// /// 03
$$
;

[Alyono]

steady intensification continues

[Chris_in_Tampa]

It's available on 1 minute GOES-16 floater again in case that has not been posted.

Visible links for later.

RAMMB/CIRA SLIDER from Colorado State:
IR: http://col.st/FLWqi
Visible: http://col.st/fYmTy

RealEarth from SSEC - UW-Madison:
IR: https://re.ssec.wisc.edu/s/IClyn
Visible: https://re.ssec.wisc.edu/s/PClBk

College of DuPage:
IR: http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... 3-24-0-100
Visible (links to previous floater position as of posting): http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... 2-24-0-100

[otowntiger]

NHC says no hurricane winds on W side of center and the stuck with following TVCN consensus and not slight W per ECMWF... Seems N.O stays out of the worst if current track verifies...

Agreed. I went to bed think this thing was about to explode brginning RI, and it looks like it is moving too fast For its own good,lol. Winds only slightly stronger, only slightly better organization and still somewhat lopsided wind field. Still going to be a blow on the east side but I'm thinking very little on the west- this having a lot to do with the forward speed fighting against the north wind.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KWBC 071014
NOAA2 WD16A NATE HDOB 15 20171007
100500 2356N 08638W 7514 02502 0034 +126 +096 198057 057 036 004 00
100530 2358N 08636W 7517 02498 0033 +127 +098 196057 058 035 004 00
100600 2400N 08634W 7520 02495 0033 +126 +106 194058 058 035 003 00
100630 2401N 08632W 7517 02499 0033 +125 +108 192059 059 035 003 00
100700 2403N 08630W 7515 02501 0032 +127 +104 191059 059 037 003 00
100730 2404N 08628W 7516 02501 0033 +127 +104 190059 060 036 002 00
100800 2406N 08626W 7516 02503 0036 +126 +104 189058 059 037 003 00
100830 2408N 08625W 7517 02501 0034 +129 +103 189058 059 037 003 00
100900 2410N 08623W 7518 02501 0034 +129 +102 189059 059 039 002 00
100930 2411N 08621W 7517 02502 0033 +131 +103 189058 058 036 002 00
101000 2413N 08619W 7517 02503 0033 +131 +104 188059 059 035 003 00
101030 2415N 08617W 7517 02504 0036 +129 +106 187059 060 035 002 00
101100 2417N 08615W 7517 02504 0036 +129 +106 187060 060 033 002 03
101130 2419N 08614W 7516 02505 0037 +128 +107 188060 060 034 002 00
101200 2421N 08612W 7517 02504 0035 +131 +106 187060 061 036 003 00
101230 2423N 08611W 7518 02504 0038 +128 +107 185062 064 043 002 00
101300 2425N 08609W 7524 02499 0038 +129 +110 186064 065 040 002 00
101330 2427N 08608W 7522 02501 0038 +129 +109 181061 061 037 002 00
101400 2429N 08607W 7522 02501 0041 +129 +105 181062 062 034 003 00
101430 2432N 08605W 7524 02502 0040 +132 +102 180062 062 035 003 00

[GCANE]

Pretty much going to track right thru the Loop Current.
I think we all know what that means.

On a nearly due-north track with relatively high forward speed.
This kicks in a secondary Coriolis effect that enhances vorticity spin up.
Can easily see the effect on how 500mb vort all of a sudden snapped into shape.

Still some work to do on lower-level vorts.
I expect Vortical Hot Towers to fire off in the Loop Current driving the circulation to the surface.

Oh, and by the way, the 355K PV ring is looking better.
Now, clearly evident on 200mb vort.
NHC even mentioned how good the outflow is.

Stay tuned.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 071018
AF305 0816A NATE HDOB 11 20171007
100900 2525N 09055W 4827 06108 0276 -053 -143 100009 010 /// /// 03
100930 2523N 09053W 4902 05985 0267 -043 -137 100010 010 /// /// 03
101000 2522N 09051W 4980 05861 0258 -035 -131 092009 010 /// /// 03
101030 2521N 09050W 5079 05707 0250 -027 -123 086010 011 /// /// 03
101100 2520N 09048W 5215 05498 0234 -016 -110 071008 011 /// /// 03
101130 2518N 09046W 5359 05273 0214 -003 -093 095007 007 /// /// 03
101200 2517N 09044W 5499 05065 0199 +011 -078 126005 007 /// /// 03
101230 2516N 09043W 5611 04900 9966 +020 -061 129003 004 /// /// 03
101300 2515N 09041W 5705 04765 9958 +030 -057 120006 006 /// /// 03
101330 2513N 09039W 5793 04636 9963 +034 -046 136004 005 /// /// 03
101400 2512N 09038W 5885 04508 9960 +044 -037 153006 007 /// /// 03
101430 2511N 09036W 6013 04332 9967 +052 -028 149005 007 /// /// 03
101500 2510N 09034W 6153 04144 9982 +053 -010 171006 007 /// /// 03
101530 2508N 09033W 6224 04048 9996 +046 +027 107009 011 /// /// 03
101600 2507N 09031W 6302 03945 9994 +053 +032 111011 013 /// /// 03
101630 2506N 09030W 6374 03850 9992 +059 +030 134008 010 /// /// 03
101700 2505N 09028W 6448 03754 9980 +072 +031 124011 013 /// /// 03
101730 2504N 09027W 6523 03654 9972 +082 +029 099011 012 /// /// 03
101800 2503N 09025W 6593 03565 9977 +083 +041 118008 009 /// /// 03
101830 2502N 09024W 6665 03474 9979 +085 +038 142006 006 /// /// 03
$$

Good night!!!!

[stormreader]

NHC says no hurricane winds on W side of center and the stuck with following TVCN consensus and not slight W per ECMWF... Seems N.O stays out of the worst if current track verifies...

it should be west of NHC track. I've seen no reason to deviate from a landfall just east of New Orleans

Yeah, I don't get it. Euro has been solid now on last couple of runs for La landfall at Grand Isle, with a N move, not NNE, up and over New Orleans. As you say, it could be slightly east of there. But it looks to me like Nate will make a solid landfall on the La coast, and not a NE trek over the mouth of the Miss River on the way toward Pascagoula, Miss.

[GCANE]

Damn, that Theta-E ridge moved right in front of Nate.
Going to track right into it.

[stormreader]

Pretty much going to track right thru the Loop Current.
I think we all know what that means.

On a nearly due-north track with relatively high forward speed.
This kicks in a secondary Coriolis effect that enhances vorticity spin up.
Can easily see the effect on how 500mb vort all of a sudden snapped into shape.

Still some work to do on lower-level vorts.
I expect Vortical Hot Towers to fire off in the Loop Current driving the circulation to the surface.

Oh, and by the way, the 355K PV ring is looking better.
Now, clearly evident on 200mb vort.
NHC even mentioned how good the outflow is.

Stay tuned.

Gonna be interesting. I think the storm will track a little further west in the short term (just along the left side of the current) before taking that due north move onto the La coast.

[GCANE]

4000 CAPE on approach.

[GCANE]

Saturday Recon flights into Nate

https://noaahrd.wordpress.com/2017/10/0 ... torm-nate/

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Radar from 3:18am CDT to 5:33am CDT:

Credit: NOAA-AOC

[Nimbus]

ext pressure near 983mb
Flight level 71knts
smrf 57 knts

Northeast quad

Forecasting where the Northeastern Quadrant will make landfall is not possible until the last few hours. Trough came through the Texas panhandle this morning, may get close enough to hook Nate east before NOLA. Next model run will be critical.

[SuperMarioBros99thx]

With all of these recent posts, let's be ready for Nate making a RI, quickly!

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/WeatherNation/status/916614270866960385

[Chris_in_Tampa]

URNT15 KWBC 071024
NOAA2 WD16A NATE HDOB 16 20171007
101500 2434N 08604W 7513 02514 0037 +133 +105 183062 062 035 003 00
101530 2436N 08603W 7513 02514 0043 +128 +107 184063 064 036 004 00
101600 2438N 08602W 7510 02518 0046 +124 +119 178065 067 038 007 00
101630 2440N 08600W 7522 02504 0039 +128 +124 173063 064 037 005 00
101700 2443N 08559W 7526 02502 0043 +131 +114 174062 063 035 004 00
101730 2445N 08558W 7519 02510 0045 +130 +110 174060 060 034 002 03
101800 2446N 08556W 7517 02514 0045 +131 +118 171057 059 028 005 00
101830 2447N 08554W 7515 02516 0047 +130 +123 173060 061 032 004 00
101900 2449N 08552W 7514 02521 0048 +133 +110 171059 059 033 004 00
101930 2450N 08550W 7515 02517 0046 +133 +110 168058 058 034 004 03
102000 2452N 08549W 7521 02516 0048 +135 +105 167058 059 038 002 00
102030 2455N 08548W 7515 02523 0049 +133 +109 166059 059 037 003 00
102100 2457N 08548W 7520 02517 0048 +135 +107 166057 058 035 003 00
102130 2500N 08547W 7519 02515 0043 +137 +107 166058 058 034 003 00
102200 2502N 08547W 7519 02517 0047 +134 +113 165057 058 033 003 00
102230 2504N 08547W 7518 02517 0048 +134 +114 165058 058 032 004 00
102300 2506N 08549W 7514 02521 0047 +133 +116 163059 060 032 003 03
102330 2507N 08551W 7516 02518 0045 +134 +115 162060 060 033 002 03
102400 2508N 08553W 7514 02519 0045 +134 +104 162060 061 033 003 03
102430 2508N 08556W 7519 02513 0046 +131 +111 161061 062 033 003 00

URNT15 KWBC 071034
NOAA2 WD16A NATE HDOB 17 20171007
102500 2508N 08558W 7520 02512 0046 +131 +112 162060 061 034 005 00
102530 2508N 08601W 7513 02519 0046 +129 +114 165064 065 034 005 00
102600 2508N 08603W 7519 02510 0042 +131 +114 166067 067 034 006 00
102630 2508N 08605W 7525 02503 0043 +129 +119 166068 069 034 009 00
102700 2508N 08608W 7514 02509 0032 +131 +128 165065 068 037 008 00
102730 2508N 08610W 7520 02502 0033 +130 //// 169066 068 036 008 01
102800 2508N 08612W 7519 02501 0029 +132 +131 171064 065 037 011 00
102830 2508N 08614W 7525 02495 0028 +134 +123 170065 066 038 012 00
102900 2508N 08617W 7515 02498 0026 +130 +125 171067 067 039 011 00
102930 2508N 08619W 7527 02489 0026 +130 //// 171066 066 043 011 01
103000 2507N 08621W 7525 02487 0025 +131 +128 171067 067 044 009 00
103030 2507N 08623W 7526 02486 0022 +132 +125 169066 067 045 009 00
103100 2507N 08626W 7513 02496 0019 +130 +123 169068 069 044 009 00
103130 2507N 08628W 7525 02480 0012 +134 +123 169069 069 044 007 00
103200 2507N 08630W 7512 02493 0010 +134 +120 169069 069 045 007 00
103230 2507N 08633W 7517 02483 0006 +135 +122 170072 076 046 008 00
103300 2507N 08635W 7519 02479 0000 +138 +129 170074 075 045 008 00
103330 2507N 08637W 7513 02482 0000 +132 //// 171076 078 045 009 01
103400 2507N 08639W 7518 02475 0000 +130 //// 172077 078 049 009 01
103430 2507N 08641W 7516 02469 9994 +130 //// 173078 080 052 007 01

URNT15 KWBC 071044
NOAA2 WD16A NATE HDOB 18 20171007
103500 2507N 08644W 7525 02459 9990 +130 //// 174076 076 052 008 01
103530 2507N 08646W 7517 02461 9982 +132 //// 175076 079 051 010 01
103600 2507N 08648W 7520 02457 9977 +132 //// 173077 079 051 022 01
103630 2507N 08650W 7499 02467 9962 +137 //// 174081 083 055 037 01
103700 2507N 08652W 7483 02481 9959 +132 //// 176084 087 056 044 01
103730 2507N 08655W 7470 02493 9950 +134 //// 177081 082 054 037 01
103800 2507N 08657W 7518 02439 9945 +140 //// 184073 076 057 015 01
103830 2507N 08659W 7513 02442 9940 +143 //// 185074 076 059 012 01
103900 2507N 08701W 7526 02425 9937 +144 //// 183072 073 064 010 01
103930 2507N 08703W 7525 02419 9928 +146 //// 184069 070 064 012 01
104000 2507N 08705W 7512 02424 9917 +148 //// 187075 079 064 013 01
104030 2507N 08707W 7506 02427 9908 +151 //// 187073 078 065 014 05
104100 2507N 08709W 7521 02396 9900 +148 //// 192075 080 055 036 01
104130 2507N 08711W 7489 02434 9896 +148 //// 195062 067 058 018 01
104200 2507N 08713W 7511 02409 9892 +153 //// 197056 059 059 011 01
104230 2507N 08715W 7523 02391 9887 +155 +151 199052 054 060 005 03
104300 2507N 08717W 7522 02388 9882 +153 +153 202047 049 050 005 00
104330 2508N 08719W 7525 02381 9879 +151 +150 209042 042 043 004 00
104400 2509N 08721W 7526 02372 9872 +154 +148 212037 039 037 003 00
104430 2510N 08723W 7524 02373 9871 +151 +146 213036 037 032 002 03

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Eastern Quadrant at around 5:40am CDT:

Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.): 84 knots (96.7 mph)
Peak (10 sec. Avg.) Flight Level Wind: 87 knots (100.1 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind: 64 knots (73.6 mph) ... 3 in a row... followed by suspect value of 65 knots (74.8 mph)

[GCANE]

Kermit just measured 45 mm/hr rain rate.
Looks like it may be a tight eye.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Somde measures momentary winds of 64 knots (74 mph) at surface level. (1001mb) Highest wind from significant levels, at 850mb level (4,669 ft), was 93mph.

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 160 gpm - 10 gpm (525 geo. feet - 33 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 155° (from the SSE)
- Wind Speed: 69 knots (79 mph)

UZNT13 KWBC 071051
XXAA 57118 99251 70867 08156 99001 26619 15564 00005 26618 /////
92691 21616 16578 85423 18017 16581 88999 77999
31313 09608 81034
61616 NOAA2 WD16A NATE OB 08
62626 SPL 2520N08674W 1038 MBL WND 15571 AEV 33304 DLM WND 16577
999752 WL150 15569 085 REL 2513N08671W 103440 =
XXBB 57118 99251 70867 08156 00001 26619 11958 23801 22850 18017
33752 13000
21212 00001 15564 11986 16072 22974 15069 33955 15576 44948 15572
55934 16579 66850 16581 77752 17575
31313 09608 81034
61616 NOAA2 WD16A NATE OB 08
62626 SPL 2520N08674W 1038 MBL WND 15571 AEV 33304 DLM WND 16577
999752 WL150 15569 085 REL 2513N08671W 103440 =