ATL: NATE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[mrbagyo]

latest MW

[gboudx]

Update from Jeff Lindner:

Hurricane racing toward the US Gulf coast

Preparations to protect life and property must be rushed to completion across SE LA, MS, AL, and the FL panhandle

Discussion:
Near continuous USAF missions into Nate overnight have revealed a lopsided hurricane with strong winds mainly confined to the eastern side of the circulation. Overall the satellite appearance is not one suggesting rapid intensification and the pressure has only fallen about 4mb since late yesterday evening. There is deep convection near/around the center, but Nate lack a well defined inner core or well defined eyewall which is likely helping to mitigate a more rapid pace of intensification. As Nate arrives on the US Gulf coast this evening the current wind pattern if it holds suggests area west of the center may see very little impact.

Track:
Nate is racing NNW at 22mph on the east side of a building mid level ridge east of FL and an upper level low over the southern Gulf of Mexico and ahead of an approaching deep layer trough over the central US. Nate may turn a little NW for a period today and then back NNW and N this evening. On this track the hurricane will approach and likely make landfall over SE LA (Mississippi River Delta) and then track NNE toward a second landfall on the MS coast. Nate will then accelerate inland over MS/AL Sunday.

Intensity:
Nate is gradually intensifying and while conditions in the Gulf of Mexico are favorable for intensification, the lack of a well defined inner core should preclude significant intensification prior to landfall. With that said, Nate still has 16-18 hours over a very warm Gulf of Mexico and a 90-100mph hurricane at landfall is certainly possible…high end cat 1 or low end cat 2. After landfall, Nate will begin to decay, but the fast forward motion will bring strong winds well inland over much of MS/AL/N GA and TN

Impacts:

Storm Surge:

Major storm surge flooding is likely along coastal MS and AL and into Mobile and Pensacola Bays.

Significant and life threatening storm surge flooding is likely over extreme SE LA and coastal MS/AL/NW FL panhandle. Storm surge values of 5-9 feet above normally dry ground near the coast will be possible over coastal MS and AL including Mobile Bay and the portions of SE LA outside of hurricane risk reduction systems (levees) S and E of the metro New Orleans area. Maximum storm surge values will be found near and just right of the landfall of the center which appears most likely along and east of the SW MS coast or east of the Gulfport, MS area. Water levels currently being forecast will overtop HWY 90 along the MS coast. Given the current forecast track, storm surge values into Lake Pontchratrain are not expected to reach levels of hurricane Issac in 2012.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... n#contents

Winds:
Winds of 85-95mph will be possible near and east of the center landfall location especially across the lower MS River Delta and then into coastal MS and AL. Given the fair weak wind field on the western side of the system, winds across metro New Orleans may be significantly weaker than those along the MS coast, however any wobble of the center only a slight distance to the west would bring hurricane conditions to New Orleans.

Rainfall:
Rainfall amounts of 3-6 inches will be possible along the track of Nate as the fast forward motion will help to reduce overall totals.

[stormreader]

Looking at the bias chart, it may go east of most of the models.

Gotta like where that Euro triangle falls on that chart.

[ava_ati]

Some kind of Bermuda Triangle VooDoo Hexed Monkey Shines taking place in the western quad or what?

Not really, the models, pretty much all of them, were forecasting an Eastern asymmetrical storm for the last 4 days. So if the models have been calling for this, not voodoo just math.

[iHateDennis]

What should i expect out of this in Destin?

[HedwigTramp]

From the closet buoy weather data (42001), conditions are not that bad. Gust of 23 knots with wave heights 8.5 ft.
I wish the weather stations on the offshore rigs were sending data since some will probably get the eye.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/WestGulf.shtml

[MGC]

Mississippi Gulf Coast should be in the RFQ. Convective trend of Nate continues to improve. Could make a run at Cat-2 before landfall. I'm thinking somewhere near the LA/MS boarder as landfall point. We are headed out to Orlando shortly for a well timed vacation to Universal. Good luck to everyone in harms way......MGC

[MidnightRain]

What should i expect out of this in Destin?

Squally weather with TS force gusts likely.

[NDG]

Mississippi Gulf Coast should be in the RFQ. Convective trend of Nate continues to improve. Could make a run at Cat-2 before landfall. I'm thinking somewhere near the LA/MS boarder as landfall point. We are headed out to Orlando shortly for a well timed vacation to Universal. Good luck to everyone in harms way......MGC

Have fun here in Orlando!

[dhweather]

Still asymmetrical with vertical alignment issues. That strong southerly flow is effectively shear, which is a good thing, this will come and go quickly on the coast.

[tropicwatch]

Between the last NOAA pass showing north movement and the next AF pass, I think we might have the northward movement starting. The AF pass would help confirm it.

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/Jeff_Piotrowski/status/916644003923353605

[Javlin]

The N turn is about to commence
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

Is it really moving north now??????

Yep Center Fix Coordinates: 25°56'N 88°04'W (25.9333N 88.0667W)

layman's terms .3N and 0W

[tropicwatch]

I think he would get better shots from Mobile.

[NDG]

Incredible burst of Convection this morning, those dewpoints close to 80 deg F are surely feeding into the circulation.

[Javlin]

Still asymmetrical with vertical alignment issues. That strong southerly flow is effectively shear, which is a good thing, this will come and go quickly on the coast.

That's what am praying for short and sweet lessens the damage to structures/trees

[NDG]

Those stronger flight level winds are starting to make its way down to the surface.

140930 2641N 08752W 6965 03069 9960 +098 +098 142075 080 074 021 03
141000 2640N 08754W 6978 03042 9935 +104 +104 146071 075 072 013 00
141030 2639N 08756W 6969 03039 9895 +115 +100 142071 072 076 007 03
141100 2638N 08757W 6967 03033 9893 +110 +102 141070 071 078 007 00
141130 2637N 08758W 6969 03018 9870 +118 +100 134070 073 082 015 00
141200 2635N 08800W 6964 03016 9865 +115 +103 130062 070 083 018 03
141230 2634N 08801W 6983 02983 9857 +117 +117 135056 065 080 028 03
141300 2633N 08802W 6963 02991 9831 +122 +121 146038 049 067 039 03

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Uncontaminated SFMR of 82 knots.

[tropicwatch]

I think the AF plane might have missed the center. Showing 980mb east of where they found the wind shift and 983mb at the wind shift. Unless I am missing something.

[AxaltaRacing24]

90 MPH now? I could see a cat 2 coming.