ATL: NATE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[MidnightRain]

Just look at those outer bands to the northwest. They are still moving southeast to northwest with no inhibitors. Just follow the moisture flow and Nate should continue on this NNW path.

Trough fast approaching, it can only go NNW for so long. A N and eventually NE track is inevitable, which should be pretty close to the NHC's track maybe a hair west of that.

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 071558
AF305 0816A NATE HDOB 45 20171007
154900 2657N 08834W 6967 03013 9790 +184 +047 328006 007 020 001 00
154930 2659N 08835W 6966 03010 9806 +167 +056 338006 008 022 001 00
155000 2700N 08836W 6974 03004 9811 +164 +053 022006 008 020 001 00
155030 2701N 08838W 6963 03018 9814 +163 +053 041005 006 022 001 00
155100 2703N 08839W 6968 03016 9816 +162 +072 074008 011 026 001 00
155130 2704N 08841W 6960 03030 9820 +163 +077 047017 020 027 001 00
155200 2705N 08842W 6982 03007 9821 +168 +078 047019 024 035 002 00
155230 2705N 08842W 6982 03007 9824 +167 +076 055028 032 046 001 00
155300 2708N 08845W 6982 03013 9820 +175 +067 052038 039 052 002 00
155330 2709N 08846W 6966 03035 9823 +176 +064 043041 042 057 002 00
155400 2710N 08848W 6962 03041 9832 +169 +063 035044 046 057 002 00
155430 2712N 08849W 6969 03039 9839 +168 +062 042050 054 054 002 00
155500 2713N 08851W 6974 03039 9856 +161 +061 046051 055 055 001 00
155530 2714N 08852W 6967 03056 9873 +152 +070 050047 049 054 002 00
155600 2715N 08853W 6970 03058 9883 +151 +053 051048 049 051 001 00
155630 2717N 08855W 6967 03069 9895 +146 +054 054047 049 048 002 00
155700 2718N 08856W 6969 03073 9915 +133 +064 059047 048 049 002 00
155730 2719N 08858W 6970 03073 9921 +130 +066 060044 045 050 001 00
155800 2720N 08859W 6972 03078 9916 +141 +061 057043 044 048 001 00
155830 2722N 08901W 6967 03088 9917 +144 +061 058041 043 047 001 00
$$
;

[Javlin]

Just look at those outer bands to the northwest. They are still moving southeast to northwest with no inhibitors. Just follow the moisture flow and Nate should continue on this NNW path.

Trough fast approaching, it can only go NNW for so long. A N and eventually NE track is inevitable, which should be pretty close to the NHC's track maybe a hair west of that.

At 26mph that is a good clip and that more N turn should start showing up in the next 6hrs I would think.

[txwatcher91]

Based on the last recon, the pressure variation shows that the low pressure may be detached from the storm eyewall OR due to the speed of it, is at a tilt with the high altitude low leading ahead of the eye/center meaning strengthening any more is unlikely at this time.
There is the gyro weak low that was at the keys now along the S LA shores which is sapping some of the strength, as well as another weak low (remnant of Ramona) to the WSW that is doing the same thing. Watching the real color loops of the latest satellite images shows some high level NNW shear. This storm is just struggling to stay organized, it is a very small narrow area of hurricane force winds, another 100 miles or so with TS force winds, but because of the lack of organization it is difficult to nail down a sustained speed which is why there are so many different opinions. Is it 75, 90, 105? Even the recon plane could not find any area of steady wind speeds.

Doesn't mean we can relax, just means it is not likely to be as bad as some are claiming. Worst part will likely be the storm surge and the detached rain blotches at a distance.

Recon is finding plenty of winds supportive of 90-100mph. Most hurricanes have the highest winds in the eyewall and this one is no different. This type of post is misleading and dangerous when people are about to experience a strengthening cat 2 storm in about 12 hours.

[Dean4Storms]

We are 3 miles or so from the Walton-Okaloosa county line where they start the Tropical Storm Warnings clear over to Indian Pass yet my Tallahassee NWS Office has us forecast for 20-25mph winds gusting to 30mph and we're about 12 hours from a landfall. I don't get that, such discrepancy and then we wonder why the average Joe gets so complacent and/or confused.

[tailgater]

Looks like the latest forecast track will verify to me in the short term.IMHO
I'm a little shocked Nate hasn't eaten the little low(Lows) to it's west

[kthmcc7319]

We are 3 miles or so from the Walton-Okaloosa county line where they start the Tropical Storm Warnings clear over to Indian Pass yet my Tallahassee NWS Office has us forecast for 20-25mph winds gusting to 30mph and we're about 12 hours from a landfall. I don't get that, such discrepancy and then we wonder why the average Joe gets so complacent and/or confused.

We're 4 miles east of the county line (Choctaw Beach). i'm expecting we'll see 35-45mph winds with higher gusts around 60mph. Just an amateur guesstimate. I realize we're on the edge of the hurricane watch area so there is surely some grey area. Things could certainly be worse for us and will be for others. Our thoughts and prayers go out to those directly in the storm's path.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[wxman57]

We are 3 miles or so from the Walton-Okaloosa county line where they start the Tropical Storm Warnings clear over to Indian Pass yet my Tallahassee NWS Office has us forecast for 20-25mph winds gusting to 30mph and we're about 12 hours from a landfall. I don't get that, such discrepancy and then we wonder why the average Joe gets so complacent and/or confused.

The TS warning area extends east of where TS winds are predicted to impact the coast. This is to take into consideration potential track deviations. Locations near the outer extent of the TS warning area usually see less than TS winds.

[artist]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 071606
XXAA 57167 99269 70885 08168 99983 27616 20017 00651 ///// /////
92540 23810 18512 85283 23250 22517 70966 18061 26507 88999 77999
31313 09608 81548
61616 AF305 0816A NATE OB 19
62626 CENTER MBL WND 20016 AEV 33304 DLM WND 21011 983695 WL150 2
0518 080 REL 2694N08855W 154840 SPG 2695N08854W 155316 =
XXBB 57168 99269 70885 08168 00983 27616 11930 23808 22850 23250
33695 18062
21212 00983 20017 11960 21018 22916 18512 33903 19511 44892 21011
55879 21520 66850 22517 77811 23514 88790 19012 99775 18510 11737
00000 22695 25508
31313 09608 81548
61616 AF305 0816A NATE OB 19
62626 CENTER MBL WND 20016 AEV 33304 DLM WND 21011 983695 WL150 2
0518 080 REL 2694N08855W 154840 SPG 2695N08854W 155316 =
;

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 071608
AF305 0816A NATE HDOB 46 20171007
155900 2723N 08902W 6967 03094 9925 +142 +063 061043 043 044 001 00
155930 2724N 08904W 6969 03095 9943 +128 +072 063045 045 044 002 00
160000 2726N 08905W 6967 03100 9955 +123 +074 065045 046 040 002 00
160030 2727N 08907W 6968 03105 9963 +120 +076 068043 045 040 001 00
160100 2728N 08908W 6975 03100 9966 +123 +062 062039 042 038 002 00
160130 2730N 08910W 6967 03112 9970 +121 +062 064036 038 037 001 00
160200 2731N 08911W 6968 03113 9973 +121 +069 061036 036 036 002 00
160230 2732N 08913W 6967 03116 9983 +115 +071 061035 035 035 001 00
160300 2734N 08914W 6970 03114 9996 +106 +073 066035 035 032 001 00
160330 2735N 08916W 6967 03119 9998 +103 +080 065036 037 028 001 00
160400 2736N 08918W 6970 03118 9999 +105 +082 065037 038 027 001 00
160430 2738N 08919W 6967 03123 0000 +105 +073 069036 037 027 001 00
160500 2739N 08921W 6971 03119 0004 +105 +073 071035 036 026 001 00
160530 2740N 08922W 6968 03125 0008 +102 +076 071034 034 028 000 00
160600 2742N 08924W 6967 03128 0009 +105 +071 071035 035 028 001 00
160630 2743N 08925W 6967 03130 0009 +105 +060 072036 037 028 001 00
160700 2744N 08927W 6970 03127 0012 +105 +060 072036 036 029 001 00
160730 2746N 08928W 6969 03128 0014 +104 +060 072033 036 029 001 00
160800 2747N 08930W 6967 03134 0017 +102 +061 074031 033 030 003 00
160830 2748N 08931W 6970 03129 0019 +100 +063 072030 032 033 004 03
$$

[artist]

000
URNT12 KNHC 071604
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL162017
A. 07/15:49:50Z
B. 26 deg 59 min N
088 deg 36 min W
C. 700 mb 2969 m
D. 64 kt
E. 137 deg 38 nm
F. 215 deg 64 kt
G. 136 deg 46 nm
H. 983 mb
I. 9 C / 3049 m
J. 19 C / 3040 m
K. 4 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF305 0816A NATE OB 18
MAX FL WIND 84 KT 136 / 85 NM 12:55:50Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 200 / 17 KT
;

[Bamagirl2408]

Experts- where is predicted landfall? Ms? la? AL? ive read all 3 in last 30 minutes. Also Stephanie Abrams said she was packing up after live shot and headed to Bham. Does that mean full confidence from TWC that it will not reach 90'west?

[psyclone]

We are 3 miles or so from the Walton-Okaloosa county line where they start the Tropical Storm Warnings clear over to Indian Pass yet my Tallahassee NWS Office has us forecast for 20-25mph winds gusting to 30mph and we're about 12 hours from a landfall. I don't get that, such discrepancy and then we wonder why the average Joe gets so complacent and/or confused.

It's no great secret warnings extend over an area far wider than that which is expected to get the TS or H conditions. It's done to account for errors. Your NWS point and click is likely generated off of wind radii based on the latest NHC track which would keep TS winds to your west. the warning accounts for the fact that the track could deviate east and yield ts wind in your area at which time your NWS forecast would be updated to reflect that. there tends to be a good bit of overwarning...hence the phrase in NHC forecasts of TS condtions are expected "somewhere" within the warning area...but certainly not everywhere.

[PTPatrick]

Experts- where is predicted landfall? Ms? la? AL? ive read all 3 in last 30 minutes. Also Stephanie Abrams said she was packing up after live shot and headed to Bham. Does that mean full confidence from TWC that it will not reach 90'west?

Follow what NHC says. Biloxi/Harrison county is currently the target. Some global models bring it to the LA state line or closer to New Orleans but it'd be the weaker side in LA in either case. It's stronger than many globals are recognizing and more fine tuned hurrican models show Jackson or a Harrison county landfalls.

[Alyono]

needs to turn now or else this is going to strike New Orleans directly

[Bamagirl2408]

needs to turn now or else this is going to strike New Orleans directly

That is kind of where I was going with it... Im in Mobile so its just a tic w of due south of us now. Wanted to know of north componant had started.

[Sanibel]

I think you can just make out that N trend on radar...


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[Dean4Storms]

We are 3 miles or so from the Walton-Okaloosa county line where they start the Tropical Storm Warnings clear over to Indian Pass yet my Tallahassee NWS Office has us forecast for 20-25mph winds gusting to 30mph and we're about 12 hours from a landfall. I don't get that, such discrepancy and then we wonder why the average Joe gets so complacent and/or confused.

We're 4 miles east of the county line (Choctaw Beach). i'm expecting we'll see 35-45mph winds with higher gusts around 60mph. Just an amateur guesstimate. I realize we're on the edge of the hurricane watch area so there is surely some grey area. Things could certainly be worse for us and will be for others. Our thoughts and prayers go out to those directly in the storm's path.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

I checked with them, they had updated it. Just took a bit for it to hit.

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 071619
AF305 0816A NATE HDOB 47 20171007
160900 2748N 08934W 6963 03141 0028 +094 +072 076031 032 /// /// 03
160930 2747N 08935W 6962 03145 0036 +090 +085 076032 034 026 005 00
161000 2745N 08937W 6970 03133 0029 +095 +078 074034 036 026 004 00
161030 2744N 08938W 6969 03134 0026 +097 +070 071030 036 024 001 00
161100 2742N 08940W 6971 03133 0021 +103 +051 065024 028 024 002 00
161130 2741N 08941W 6968 03135 0020 +103 +058 061023 024 024 001 00
161200 2739N 08943W 6967 03134 0018 +104 +061 062023 024 023 001 00
161230 2738N 08944W 6969 03133 0015 +105 +068 056023 024 024 001 00
161300 2737N 08946W 6969 03133 0012 +110 +059 054022 023 024 001 00
161330 2735N 08947W 6967 03134 0013 +106 +062 056022 022 021 001 00
161400 2734N 08949W 6969 03133 0012 +108 +059 053021 023 019 001 00
161430 2732N 08950W 6967 03136 0008 +114 +047 049021 022 018 002 00
161500 2731N 08952W 6969 03135 0014 +110 +049 048020 021 020 001 00
161530 2729N 08953W 6970 03134 0017 +110 +050 043017 020 021 001 00
161600 2728N 08955W 6967 03139 0022 +103 +067 046016 017 021 001 00
161630 2727N 08956W 6967 03139 0022 +103 +065 049018 019 020 001 00
161700 2725N 08958W 6970 03135 0024 +102 +067 050020 021 019 001 00
161730 2724N 08959W 6968 03138 0019 +107 +057 044020 021 018 001 00
161800 2722N 09001W 6969 03138 0019 +106 +060 040019 020 017 001 00
161830 2721N 09002W 6967 03139 0018 +109 +058 036019 019 017 000 00
$$

[WeatherGuesser]

Experts- where is predicted landfall? Ms? la? AL? ive read all 3 in last 30 minutes.

There's only about 150 miles or so from LA to FL, so I'd think there's a pretty good chance all four will be affected. Don't worry too much about where celebrities are going, pay attention to the NHC.