ATL: NATE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Pressure still dropping...Definately cat 2.

its running out of time tho.

[NDG]

Latest satellite picture, X is where the latest COC was fixed by the recon. Almost due south of the mouth of the MS river, almost due south of east Ocean Springs MS.

[Steve]

Looks like many will get more than they bargained for. Certain posters were saying "sheared mess" for days but we could end up with an intensifying Cat 2 landfalling NC Gulf system the second week of October (8th/9th). You might not see that again.

[CrazyC83]

I'm 2 counties outside the Tropical Storm Warning, yet have heard nothing at all about local threats and I don't think there is even an advisory here...

[GCANE]

[Big Easy Breeze]

Experts- where is predicted landfall? Ms? la? AL? ive read all 3 in last 30 minutes. Also Stephanie Abrams said she was packing up after live shot and headed to Bham. Does that mean full confidence from TWC that it will not reach 90'west?

1st landfall will be in extreme SELA; then Miss gulf coast.

[NDG]

anyone else notice that noname system is still rotating around out there lol..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

I saw that i was a little concerned.. One of the models CMC I think had it flying into the Sarasota area as a tropical system but then dropped it.

The vorticity that gave so much problems to the models, especially the GFS.

[tolakram]

Based on the last recon, the pressure variation shows that the low pressure may be detached from the storm eyewall OR due to the speed of it, is at a tilt with the high altitude low leading ahead of the eye/center meaning strengthening any more is unlikely at this time.
There is the gyro weak low that was at the keys now along the S LA shores which is sapping some of the strength, as well as another weak low (remnant of Ramona) to the WSW that is doing the same thing. Watching the real color loops of the latest satellite images shows some high level NNW shear. This storm is just struggling to stay organized, it is a very small narrow area of hurricane force winds, another 100 miles or so with TS force winds, but because of the lack of organization it is difficult to nail down a sustained speed which is why there are so many different opinions. Is it 75, 90, 105? Even the recon plane could not find any area of steady wind speeds.

Doesn't mean we can relax, just means it is not likely to be as bad as some are claiming. Worst part will likely be the storm surge and the detached rain blotches at a distance.

Yesterday you mentioned cold air from the Rockies and dry air from the Mexican desert, which I still don't understand.

With all due respect, a storm with pressure dropping from 988 to 983 is not struggling to stay organized. As some of us mentioned yesterday, the super fast northward motion always makes these kinds of storm interesting. If nothing else the rapid motion combined with the stronger east side is going to being significant winds to shore east of the center.

[wxman57]

not turning yet.


man its really moving fast.

It's not expected to make the turn until the center nears SE Louisiana this evening.

[Craters]

anyone else notice that noname system is still rotating around out there lol..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

Yeah, Aric, mrbagyo had a closeup loop of it in post 1168.

[otowntiger]

[Youtube][/Youtube]

No wobbles west please, but i wouldn't mind seeing Stephine get a little wet.

[GCANE]

Theta-E expanding and strengthening ahead of Nate.

[NDG]

There's very little pressure gradient to the west of Nate's eye due to the extended trough rotating around, thus why the winds are weaker, but that may change later tonight, the NW quadrant will eventually get stronger as it leaves the trough behind to its SW quadrant.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

As an Irma Survivor i wish my friends in the path well. We had weeks to prepare....sadly alot of "Sheared tropical mess" folks came out last week already and alot of folks probably have done zero to prepare and now there is now time.

[tolakram]

60 frame slider loop, mesoscale 1 min sector, if you can get it to work.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=mesoscale_02&x=904&y=618&z=1&im=60&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

200 frame COD loop, same sector: http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso2-02-200-1-100

[FLpanhandle91]

976.6mb...

[SEASON_CANCELED]

oh boy

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 071649
AF305 0816A NATE HDOB 50 20171007
163900 2716N 08852W 6968 03012 9771 +202 +059 101006 011 029 002 00
163930 2716N 08850W 6972 02999 9756 +215 +040 227008 014 017 001 00
164000 2715N 08848W 6971 03005 9791 +182 +069 213006 010 020 000 00
164030 2715N 08846W 6963 03006 9778 +187 +067 215014 018 020 002 00
164100 2714N 08844W 7002 02968 9807 +162 +075 214013 018 020 001 03
164130 2714N 08842W 6969 02999 9814 +152 +068 203016 018 /// /// 03
164200 2712N 08841W 6964 03010 9825 +147 +076 213008 016 /// /// 03
164230 2711N 08843W 6982 02987 9821 +152 +079 348001 012 /// /// 03
164300 2711N 08845W 6968 03013 9800 +175 +071 216007 010 026 000 00
164330 2712N 08847W 6952 03032 9796 +177 +075 215007 010 022 000 00
164400 2713N 08849W 6982 02994 9792 +182 +074 226006 009 024 001 00
164430 2713N 08851W 6975 03005 9797 +179 +075 264005 008 029 001 00
164500 2714N 08852W 6973 03008 9815 +162 +091 331008 010 025 001 00
164530 2714N 08854W 6965 03026 9810 +173 +078 345014 015 017 001 03
164600 2715N 08856W 6957 03034 9793 +191 +050 356017 019 /// /// 03
164630 2716N 08854W 6961 03026 9785 +196 +050 007011 019 017 001 00
164700 2716N 08852W 6982 02996 9816 +162 +082 196003 006 024 001 00
164730 2716N 08850W 6980 02995 9801 +172 +078 218007 011 024 001 00
164800 2716N 08848W 6958 03019 9774 +197 +056 205017 020 021 001 00
164830 2716N 08846W 6955 03027 9767 +205 +049 227016 020 023 001 00
$$
;

Pressure 976mb.

[GCANE]

Off-the-scale Rain Rate

[Big Easy Breeze]

Looks like many will get more than they bargained for. Certain posters were saying "sheared mess" for days but we could end up with an intensifying Cat 2 landfalling NC Gulf system the second week of October (8th/9th). You might not see that again.

Ceartianly so. CAT 2 is nothing to sneeze at; particularly one that is strengthening on its approach and high end CAT 2.

An approaching, strengthening hurricane, can catch people off guard after all of the pre-landfall weak/dis-organized mess forecasts as you mentioned. Camille was a different animal altogether, but it continued to intensify to CAT 5 all the way to landfall.