ATL: NATE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Cloud tops appear to be warming... Hopefully Nate has peaked..

Alot of times that will occur has an eye starts to clear out just before a deepeing phase begins.. have to watch closely.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 071728
AF305 0816A NATE HDOB 54 20171007
171900 2757N 08723W 6970 03141 0029 +105 +048 160054 054 030 001 00
171930 2759N 08723W 6969 03144 0029 +106 +047 158053 053 032 001 00
172000 2801N 08722W 6969 03146 0042 +096 +070 154052 053 032 001 00
172030 2803N 08722W 6963 03152 0042 +092 +075 155052 052 033 001 00
172100 2805N 08722W 6970 03145 0048 +090 +067 154054 054 032 000 00
172130 2807N 08722W 6967 03147 0051 +090 +059 156054 055 032 001 00
172200 2810N 08721W 6967 03147 0054 +085 +057 157055 055 032 001 00
172230 2812N 08721W 6970 03145 0051 +091 +048 156056 057 032 001 00
172300 2814N 08721W 6968 03149 0049 +095 +047 154056 056 032 001 00
172330 2816N 08721W 6969 03150 0051 +095 +049 153055 055 032 002 00
172400 2818N 08720W 6967 03152 0052 +095 +053 151053 054 033 002 00
172430 2820N 08720W 6967 03156 0054 +095 +054 151052 053 032 002 00
172500 2823N 08720W 6969 03155 0060 +090 +054 151054 054 035 002 00
172530 2825N 08720W 6969 03156 0062 +089 +055 152055 055 034 003 00
172600 2827N 08719W 6967 03158 0066 +086 +058 151054 055 037 002 00
172630 2829N 08719W 6967 03157 0063 +089 +063 148054 055 037 002 00
172700 2831N 08719W 6972 03152 0071 +082 +068 147056 058 037 003 00
172730 2833N 08719W 6971 03155 0079 +076 +072 144056 057 034 005 00
172800 2835N 08718W 6962 03166 0067 +086 +078 138055 056 038 007 00
172830 2837N 08718W 6961 03167 0093 +077 +077 146052 055 044 036 00
$$
;

[wxman57]

When will he turn to the north?

Don't expect any turn until Nate's center reaches SE Louisiana around 9pm.

[psyclone]

Cloud tops appear to be warming... Hopefully Nate has peaked..

All else being equal cloud tops tend to warm during the day owing to increased solar insolation. I feel like I've written this before but it bears repeating.

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 071728
AF305 0816A NATE HDOB 54 20171007
171900 2757N 08723W 6970 03141 0029 +105 +048 160054 054 030 001 00
171930 2759N 08723W 6969 03144 0029 +106 +047 158053 053 032 001 00
172000 2801N 08722W 6969 03146 0042 +096 +070 154052 053 032 001 00
172030 2803N 08722W 6963 03152 0042 +092 +075 155052 052 033 001 00
172100 2805N 08722W 6970 03145 0048 +090 +067 154054 054 032 000 00
172130 2807N 08722W 6967 03147 0051 +090 +059 156054 055 032 001 00
172200 2810N 08721W 6967 03147 0054 +085 +057 157055 055 032 001 00
172230 2812N 08721W 6970 03145 0051 +091 +048 156056 057 032 001 00
172300 2814N 08721W 6968 03149 0049 +095 +047 154056 056 032 001 00
172330 2816N 08721W 6969 03150 0051 +095 +049 153055 055 032 002 00
172400 2818N 08720W 6967 03152 0052 +095 +053 151053 054 033 002 00
172430 2820N 08720W 6967 03156 0054 +095 +054 151052 053 032 002 00
172500 2823N 08720W 6969 03155 0060 +090 +054 151054 054 035 002 00
172530 2825N 08720W 6969 03156 0062 +089 +055 152055 055 034 003 00
172600 2827N 08719W 6967 03158 0066 +086 +058 151054 055 037 002 00
172630 2829N 08719W 6967 03157 0063 +089 +063 148054 055 037 002 00
172700 2831N 08719W 6972 03152 0071 +082 +068 147056 058 037 003 00
172730 2833N 08719W 6971 03155 0079 +076 +072 144056 057 034 005 00
172800 2835N 08718W 6962 03166 0067 +086 +078 138055 056 038 007 00
172830 2837N 08718W 6961 03167 0093 +077 +077 146052 055 044 036 00
$$
;

[Jelff]

Here is the satellite view of Nate with the cone of uncertainty.

Map link: https://goo.gl/gqcgR3

[tolakram]

Significant break in convection via IR.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=conus&x=5376&y=5622&z=3&im=36&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=13&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[Aric Dunn]

radar looking like eyewall is closed except maybe the north side.. but that might just be some atenuation..

[SEASON_CANCELED]

he is about to blow

[tolakram]

Here's the COD IR loop.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=gulf-13-48-1-100

[stormreader]

Saved radar loop.

Gonna be close to New Orleans, I think. Still a west component. Looking for a trek just west of Miss River and then north up over New Orleans.

[FLpanhandle91]

Keep in mind everyone, NHC has the forecast turn happening when it is pretty much due south of the Mississippi river delta and approaching it from the south directly before turning NNE into MS.

[gatorcane]

Nate is really moving quickly:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[PSUHiker31]

I'm still very concerned at how much of a sharp NE hook this will take later

[Alyono]

at this rate, we could be looking at landfall as early as 5 pm

[Aric Dunn]

looks like an eye is starting to clear out of visible..

[iHateDennis]

Slowed down 1 mph at 1PM advisory

[Ubuntwo]

Yup. Definitely looking like the eye of Nate is starting to clear up on visible.

[Aric Dunn]

closed.. except maybe north sidde...

[stormreader]

at this rate, we could be looking at landfall as early as 5 pm

Forward speed will probably help to carry the mass of the storm further west than official track (still feeling influence of strong high over Fl) combined with trough. Storm will be thrust upon the SE La coast shortly. Center should pass just about over New Orleans IMO