ATL: NATE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[wxman57]

Is it showing a more northerly componant yet? (I can never tell) Any chance Mobile moves out of Hurricane Warning at 4? Mets in New Orleans and Mobile saying different things.

Mobile is NOT going to see hurricane-force winds. NHC was being quite cautious when setting the eastern boundary.

[toad strangler]

Just saw that WWL (CBS affiliate in New Orleans) will be airing the LSU-Florida game as scheduled...not even a hurricane can disrupt their football

Got that right. That's how we roll. But seriously, we have this hurricane "stuff" down pat. Calm and controlled.

At this time, Nate would need to stop immediately its current movement, and hook NNE to hit Biloxi.

That's what I keep saying. I'd much rather get my forecast from Storm2K than the local media. They are strictly towing the NHC line and I just can't see that happening.

The NHC does a tremendous job.

[GCANE]

How about this one?

[NDG]

Finally starting to see some SW inflow starting to get going toward the coc, might lead to some deep convection returning to near the coc, which is getting stacked up now.

[Aric Dunn]

How about this one?

yes that is it

[ozonepete]

How about this one?

That's got my vote.

[gone2beach]

First real rain band arrived here.

Wlox affiliate is also going to air football......however, their sister station on WLOX is supposed to stay with the storm.

[tolakram]

saved radar

[FLpanhandle91]

Turn has happened. Looks to be right in line with NHC forecast track. Maybe even further east?

[NDG]

Is it me or does Nate appears to be slowing down some as they usually do before a turn? There is no way it is still moving at 25 mph.

[otowntiger]

Is it showing a more northerly componant yet? (incan never tell) Any chance Mobile moves out of Hurricane Warning at 4? Mets in New Orleans and Mobile saying different things.

I had to turn off the Nola local news. They were driving me crazy. What is Mobile saying?

Still sticking with w MS landfall and 80-90 gusts @ midnight in west Mobile.

the winds probably won't be that high, fortunately.

[Aric Dunn]

Is it me or does Nate appears to be slowing down some as they usually do before a turn? There is no way it is still moving at 25 mph.

yeah it has slowed.. like you said its quite normal before any turn.. even a small one..

[tolakram]

[NDG]

Turn has happened. Looks to be right in line with NHC forecast track. Maybe even further east?

IMO, not yet. It is still moving NNW, it has slowed down though.

[rolltide]

First rain band just came thought Pensacola. Wind is starting to pickup some.

[Aric Dunn]

has about 6 to 8 hours before landfall unless it slows more.. still time to deepen..

[tolakram]

SLIDER The loss of convection / reorganization seemed to happen right when it slowed down forward speed. Maybe.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=mesoscale_02&x=833.5&y=1094&z=2&im=24&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[Aric Dunn]

SLIDER The loss of convection / reorganization seemed to happen right when it slowed down forward speed. Maybe.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=mesoscale_02&x=833.5&y=1094&z=2&im=24&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

yeah and the change in direction will help in any hidden sw mid level shear.. ( though I dont see any.. ) this is when the models said it would deepen....

[tolakram]

COD 96 frame loop

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=gulf-02-96-1-10

[Bamagirl2408]

SLIDER The loss of convection / reorganization seemed to happen right when it slowed down forward speed. Maybe.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=mesoscale_02&x=833.5&y=1094&z=2&im=24&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

*Disclaimer* I wear bifocals. In that frame looks moving less nnw and more north.