ATL: NATE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

Recon just caught the tower as it started to fire.
35 mm/hr rain rate.

[Aric Dunn]

Recon just caught the tower as it started to fire.
35 mm/hr rain rate.

yeah they passed through it before it peaked.

[NDG]

I don't know where the NHC got those coordinates from on the latest advisory because that's not where the recon found the lowest pressure and wind shift.

[NDG]

winds def down to about 75 mph

I wouldn't agree based on just one pass, especially with convection now re-firing.

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like it will come in as a minimal hurricane 75 mph. Unless it can push that dry air out in th enext hour lol.. not happening. good news though

[Aric Dunn]

winds def down to about 75 mph

I wouldn't agree based on just one pass, especially with convection now re-firing.

radar showing it falling apart again.. has to sustain and expand and fill the ENTIRE west side of the circ..

[NDG]

winds def down to about 75 mph

I wouldn't agree based on just one pass, especially with convection now re-firing.

radar showing it falling apart again.. has to sustain and expand and fill the ENTIRE west side of the circ..

I don't see it falling apart just yet.

[PandaCitrus]

Is this the continental dry air that weakens almost all storms that approach the northern gulf?

Katrina fell apart and shredded before landfall. Opal did this too.

[artist]

Undecoded Observation (hide)
URNT15 KNHC 072056
AF309 0916A NATE HDOB 16 20171007
204600 2829N 08902W 8428 01380 9880 +189 +189 140046 050 059 007 03
204630 2830N 08901W 8425 01390 9893 +186 +186 141059 062 056 027 03
204700 2831N 08859W 8439 01382 9905 +183 +183 140066 068 059 033 00
204730 2832N 08858W 8428 01401 9915 +181 +181 142069 070 060 030 03
204800 2833N 08856W 8425 01416 9928 +177 +177 142075 078 061 030 00
204830 2834N 08855W 8433 01409 9932 +177 +177 142076 078 059 035 03
204900 2835N 08854W 8430 01422 9943 +175 +175 142073 075 057 036 00
204930 2836N 08853W 8436 01425 9950 +176 +176 136068 073 055 012 00
205000 2837N 08851W 8424 01438 9951 +178 +178 148071 074 056 011 00
205030 2839N 08850W 8434 01435 9957 +177 +177 148070 075 056 006 00
205100 2840N 08849W 8429 01443 9964 +175 //// 147068 070 056 005 01
205130 2841N 08847W 8430 01448 9972 +174 +174 144065 066 054 008 03
205200 2842N 08846W 8430 01454 9977 +174 +174 143066 067 057 015 03
205230 2843N 08844W 8429 01458 9985 +170 +170 143067 068 055 019 03
205300 2844N 08843W 8430 01462 9988 +170 +170 145066 068 054 016 03
205330 2845N 08842W 8432 01463 9988 +173 +173 148062 064 050 012 03
205400 2846N 08840W 8433 01466 9989 +175 +175 150063 063 049 008 00
205430 2848N 08839W 8426 01476 9993 +176 +176 145070 074 053 011 03
205500 2849N 08838W 8429 01474 0001 +173 +173 140073 074 050 016 00
205530 2850N 08836W 8440 01463 0004 +172 +172 135068 071 050 016 03
Select All

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 072106
AF309 0916A NATE HDOB 17 20171007
205600 2851N 08835W 8425 01482 0005 +170 +170 136069 071 050 018 00
205630 2852N 08834W 8432 01478 0007 +171 +171 136065 068 047 017 00
205700 2853N 08832W 8428 01484 0013 +169 +169 135062 065 048 016 00
205730 2854N 08831W 8429 01481 0016 +168 +168 136066 067 044 015 00
205800 2855N 08830W 8428 01487 0017 +167 +167 138067 068 047 017 03
205830 2856N 08829W 8433 01482 0019 +168 +168 141065 068 049 018 00
205900 2857N 08827W 8426 01491 0021 +168 +168 145060 061 049 019 03
205930 2858N 08826W 8429 01489 0018 +169 +169 145061 062 046 011 03
210000 2859N 08824W 8436 01485 0022 +168 +168 146061 063 049 013 03
210030 2900N 08823W 8428 01495 0027 +166 +166 148062 062 047 014 03
210100 2902N 08822W 8431 01495 0029 +166 +166 144067 069 042 012 03
210130 2903N 08820W 8419 01505 0026 +167 +167 145065 068 042 010 00
210200 2904N 08819W 8425 01500 0029 +163 +163 149070 074 040 009 00
210230 2905N 08818W 8430 01495 0031 +162 +162 146071 073 040 007 00
210300 2906N 08816W 8430 01497 0026 +162 +162 150072 073 038 007 00
210330 2907N 08815W 8432 01500 0038 +157 +157 146070 072 041 008 00
210400 2908N 08813W 8433 01502 0036 +152 //// 142068 070 038 007 01
210430 2909N 08812W 8429 01509 0035 +153 +152 143069 070 038 005 00
210500 2910N 08811W 8428 01510 0036 +154 +143 145070 072 036 004 00
210530 2911N 08809W 8430 01510 0034 +162 +135 145073 073 037 004 00
$$
;

[Aric Dunn]

Is this the continental dry air that weakens almost all storms that approach the northern gulf?

Katrina fell apart and shredded before landfall. Opal did this too.

likely that and the old upper low that was in the gulf had quite a bit of dry air with it and when it collpased nate likely has pulled all that in.. I mean the dry air has completley collapsed almost all convection from nate's center west to the trough over central texas.. spotty showers is it.. it may end up weakening unless the nne turn helps keep it away somehow.. but not really any time left.

[NDG]

BTW, pressure is 982 mb measured by the dropsone. And as I thought further south and west than what the NHC updated fix showed.

[artist]

000
URNT12 KNHC 072114
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL162017
A. 07/20:40:10Z
B. 28 deg 14 min N
089 deg 12 min W
C. 850 mb 1278 m
D. 45 kt
E. 195 deg 20 nm
F. 271 deg 51 kt
G. 195 deg 20 nm
H. 982 mb
I. 19 C / 1527 m
J. 22 C / 1521 m
K. 18 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF309 0916A NATE OB 04
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 78 KT 039 / 25 NM 20:48:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 015 / 5 KT
SFC CNTR 360 / 2 NM FROM FL CNTR
;

[Stormcenter]

Those two storms didn't weaken enough for me especially Katrina. Katrina did significant damage all the up to Jackson, MS.

Is this the continental dry air that weakens almost all storms that approach the northern gulf?

Katrina fell apart and shredded before landfall. Opal did this too.

[tolakram]

New convection starting to build.



SLIDER

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=mesoscale_02&x=888&y=1024&z=2&im=18&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=1&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[artist]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 072115
XXAA 57218 99286 70889 08188 99992 24606 10056 00568 ///// /////
92616 22212 12570 85350 18202 14575 88999 77999
31313 09608 82048
61616 AF309 0916A NATE OB 06
62626 EYEWALL 045 MBL WND 11065 AEV 33304 DLM WND 12569 991843 WL
150 10063 082 REL 2858N08891W 204847 SPG 2860N08895W 205055 =
XXBB 57218 99286 70889 08188 00992 24606 11850 18202 22843 17400
21212 00992 10056 11982 10567 22966 11064 33957 12072 44947 12065
55931 12568 66925 12570 77918 12578 88886 12572 99878 13075 11854
14075 22843 14576
31313 09608 82048
61616 AF309 0916A NATE OB 06
62626 EYEWALL 045 MBL WND 11065 AEV 33304 DLM WND 12569 991843 WL
150 10063 082 REL 2858N08891W 204847 SPG 2860N08895W 205055 =
;

[tolakram]

SLIDER IR

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=mesoscale_02&x=959.5&y=1035&z=1&im=18&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=13&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

COD visible: http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso2-02-48-1-100
COD ir: http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso2-13-48-1-100

[Sciencerocks]

I mean very intense and very high rain rates...

How do you download a flash or Html5 loop and save it? A lot of the nws radar loops I can't save.

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/TornadoQuest/status/916774236781457408

[Janie2006]

About to get smacked with a good rain band in Mobtown (that'd be Mobile for non-residents).