ATL: NATE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 072306
AF309 0916A NATE HDOB 29 20171007
225600 2801N 08737W 8409 01542 0064 +158 +158 182057 061 040 010 00
225630 2803N 08737W 8423 01529 0059 +165 //// 178056 058 042 008 01
225700 2805N 08737W 8422 01531 0059 +166 +166 175061 063 041 010 00
225730 2807N 08736W 8430 01523 0056 +164 //// 172060 062 042 004 01
225800 2809N 08736W 8429 01523 0057 +167 +167 173057 060 042 006 00
225830 2811N 08736W 8406 01548 0053 +168 +168 173057 060 041 007 00
225900 2813N 08736W 8436 01517 0059 +167 +167 169057 060 043 012 00
225930 2816N 08736W 8420 01533 0058 +168 +168 170056 056 043 012 00
230000 2818N 08735W 8425 01522 0056 +167 +167 172062 063 040 023 00
230030 2820N 08735W 8427 01524 0057 +169 +169 169060 063 043 024 00
230100 2822N 08735W 8421 01527 0056 +170 +170 170057 059 044 021 00
230130 2824N 08735W 8417 01530 0055 +170 +170 169061 062 041 025 00
230200 2826N 08734W 8424 01527 0058 +167 +167 169060 064 041 008 00
230230 2828N 08734W 8424 01527 0051 +166 //// 169061 062 041 005 01
230300 2830N 08734W 8422 01529 0044 +169 //// 167061 063 042 005 01
230330 2832N 08734W 8425 01524 0054 +167 +167 168062 063 044 009 00
230400 2835N 08733W 8422 01526 0056 +165 +165 166063 065 043 010 03
230430 2837N 08733W 8424 01524 0050 +160 +160 162066 067 041 007 00
230500 2839N 08733W 8429 01523 0051 +157 +157 158064 065 043 007 00
230530 2841N 08733W 8424 01528 0055 +158 +158 157062 064 045 008 00

[PTPatrick]

Not sure it's worth much but HWRF seems to deepen it slightly in the MS sound right before land fall in Biloxi /ocean springs. HRRR, Hmon, Hwrf, GF all still seem to see the north northeast turn at the mouth tonight. But like I said it probably won't matter much, it's already turning. gotta love how the continent dries out these northern gulf storms, esp in October.

[Florabamaman]

If Nate misses the SELA landfall should I see conditions worse than expected here in Santa Rosa county, Fl? Just East of Pensacola.

[SootyTern]

My tub will not hold water. HELP!

Cover the plug with duct tape

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 072316
AF309 0916A NATE HDOB 30 20171007
230600 2843N 08733W 8422 01528 0056 +158 //// 157064 066 044 006 05
230630 2845N 08732W 8423 01527 0041 +167 +159 157063 063 047 006 03
230700 2847N 08732W 8427 01521 0037 +172 +158 155063 064 047 006 00
230730 2849N 08732W 8422 01529 0043 +164 +162 157063 064 044 007 00
230800 2851N 08732W 8423 01524 0042 +163 +159 157065 065 042 009 03
230830 2854N 08731W 8429 01518 0042 +164 +156 157066 066 041 012 03
230900 2854N 08731W 8429 01518 0047 +165 +164 161063 065 045 013 00
230930 2858N 08731W 8423 01524 0051 +171 +171 160056 065 042 017 03
231000 2900N 08731W 8441 01507 0060 +169 +169 160062 064 046 027 00
231030 2902N 08730W 8418 01528 0057 +167 +167 158063 065 040 014 00
231100 2904N 08730W 8433 01514 0058 +165 +165 159063 066 039 010 00
231130 2906N 08730W 8425 01524 0054 +164 +164 158060 062 039 006 00
231200 2908N 08730W 8423 01527 0051 +161 //// 159059 060 039 005 01
231230 2910N 08730W 8426 01524 0041 +168 +166 158061 062 036 004 00
231300 2912N 08729W 8426 01526 0043 +166 +165 160058 061 035 005 00
231330 2914N 08729W 8424 01529 //// +165 //// 159055 057 035 002 01
231400 2916N 08729W 8421 01533 //// +166 //// 157056 057 037 002 01
231430 2918N 08729W 8426 01528 //// +165 //// 158054 056 037 002 01
231500 2920N 08728W 8418 01539 //// +166 //// 157054 054 037 002 01
231530 2922N 08728W 8426 01529 //// +167 //// 155054 055 037 003 01
$$
;

[facemane]

My tub will not hold water. HELP!

Cover the plug with duct tape

a cotton sock covered with duct tape is better

[Andrew92]

Is it just me or are hurricane force winds expanding out to the east? The center is at about 89.1, and pretty sure looking at the recon thread I see consistent 64+ knot winds as far out as almost 87.3 degrees. Last advisory though says they extend only 40 miles out though, so something doesn't seem quite right here to me.

Maybe I am misreading something though.

-Andrew92

[tropicwatch]

Kind of looks like the front is pushing it eastward early.

[ozonepete]

Ummm looking at radar looks like the center just jumped/reformed to the easter under that convection.. interesting..

look at that center just getting pulle nearly due east and reforming.. crazyiness..

https://image.ibb.co/jpD5GG/KLIX_New_Or ... 1_55_P.gif

Part of the cause of this (and you can see it on this excellent radar loop from Aric) is eyewall vortices. They spin up and add momentum that's often counter to the general forward motion. Land interaction often is involved with causing them. Sometimes the drag on the eyewall can appreciably change the short term direction of motion, and though it all usually smooths out in the end, sometimes there's enough eyewall vortex interruption of the overall eye spin to jog it a little of track. Looks like it might have happened here and helped Nate start its NNE turn.

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 072326
AF309 0916A NATE HDOB 31 20171007
231600 2924N 08728W 8424 01532 0046 +169 +166 154055 056 038 002 01
231630 2926N 08728W 8422 01534 //// +166 //// 152055 056 040 002 01
231700 2928N 08727W 8428 01528 //// +166 //// 152055 057 040 002 01
231730 2931N 08727W 8420 01538 0050 +167 //// 153057 058 037 004 01
231800 2933N 08727W 8429 01530 0047 +170 +165 152058 059 039 004 00
231830 2935N 08727W 8424 01536 0054 +166 //// 152058 060 038 005 01
231900 2937N 08727W 8424 01536 0054 +166 //// 154056 058 036 005 01
231930 2939N 08726W 8425 01535 0054 +165 +159 152058 058 035 006 00
232000 2941N 08726W 8422 01538 0054 +166 +153 153058 058 035 007 03
232030 2943N 08726W 8426 01535 0054 +168 +158 155055 058 035 005 00
232100 2945N 08726W 8422 01541 0054 +170 +157 155053 054 036 005 00
232130 2947N 08725W 8425 01539 0055 +169 +162 154054 054 036 006 00
232200 2949N 08725W 8422 01542 0057 +169 +165 153053 054 038 006 00
232230 2951N 08725W 8426 01540 0057 +170 +168 149052 053 036 006 00
232300 2953N 08725W 8424 01540 0053 +176 +160 153050 052 037 007 00
232330 2955N 08725W 8420 01550 0056 +170 +163 152051 054 038 005 00
232400 2957N 08724W 8427 01537 0054 +174 +163 151054 055 035 005 00
232430 2959N 08724W 8424 01543 0059 +169 +161 149053 054 032 004 00
232500 3001N 08724W 8422 01545 0059 +168 +167 149052 053 032 004 01
232530 3003N 08724W 8426 01542 //// +166 //// 150052 053 031 004 01
$$
;

[smw1981]

We have no power in mid-town Mobile and haven't in at least an hour..

Also, tornado warning for Mobile and Baldwin counties..

[Andrew92]

Hold my previous question above. I think I looked at the wrong column in the data thread. I knew something looked wrong, and it was me!

-Andrew92

[joey]

looks like its movin due east look at the banding in the middle of the state of fl too hmm

[bella_may]

Met on Fox News just said this might be a weak cat 2 now

[tolakram]

Recon showing the huge windfield to the east of the storm.

[bevgo]

Thanks all. Didn't have silicon or duct rape. I put a bit of paper in the drain. Filled with. Put stopper in and now tub holds waters. I have 1 drain plug that works good but the other allowed a slow leak. Both work now. Lol. I have 2 large buckets full andb2 more waiting for the next rain. I will have Kentucky flushing. I have a well and if power goes so does well pump. No generator. We have always been working and away from home bit stocked up on food and have 2 freezers full of frozen water and ice. I also have 10 gallon zip lock bags frozen. I won't need to buy water or ice. I do this every year. Lol water goes fast at stores. I laugh at folks freaking over water. I turn on my tap and freeze it. I always have water and ice.

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 072336
AF309 0916A NATE HDOB 32 20171007
232600 3005N 08723W 8425 01545 //// +166 //// 150050 052 033 002 01
232630 3007N 08723W 8422 01548 0063 +171 +159 151049 050 034 002 00
232700 3009N 08723W 8425 01546 0064 +167 +163 149049 050 031 003 00
232730 3010N 08723W 8422 01551 0064 +170 +158 153050 051 030 003 00
232800 3012N 08722W 8427 01547 0069 +165 +163 155051 052 029 001 01
232830 3015N 08722W 8419 01560 0070 +171 +158 153049 051 029 002 03
232900 3015N 08724W 8428 01548 0068 +172 +154 152047 048 /// /// 03
232930 3015N 08726W 8426 01548 0068 +168 +157 153046 046 032 002 00
233000 3014N 08727W 8424 01550 0064 +174 +147 154044 046 032 002 00
233030 3013N 08729W 8422 01550 0064 +171 +150 156043 044 031 003 00
233100 3012N 08730W 8428 01545 0064 +170 +150 155043 043 031 003 00
233130 3011N 08732W 8425 01545 0063 +170 +145 152043 044 032 003 00
233200 3010N 08733W 8424 01544 0061 +169 +155 148043 044 029 004 00
233230 3009N 08735W 8430 01536 0060 +168 +151 145046 047 029 007 03
233300 3009N 08737W 8423 01541 0065 +163 +163 141047 048 034 010 00
233330 3009N 08739W 8426 01538 0076 +157 +157 141050 054 032 016 00
233400 3009N 08741W 8415 01546 0073 +155 +155 141055 058 043 024 00
233430 3009N 08743W 8416 01547 0066 +158 //// 137048 057 044 012 05
233500 3008N 08745W 8430 01534 //// +163 //// 142043 046 034 006 05
233530 3007N 08745W 8422 01540 0056 +167 //// 142043 044 036 005 01
$$
;

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 072346
AF309 0916A NATE HDOB 33 20171007
233600 3006N 08746W 8425 01535 0052 +169 +163 146045 046 033 005 00
233630 3004N 08746W 8429 01534 0052 +170 +157 143049 051 028 005 03
233700 3003N 08747W 8419 01539 0051 +167 +152 138051 053 029 004 00
233730 3002N 08749W 8423 01535 0050 +165 +151 137050 052 029 004 00
233800 3001N 08751W 8425 01531 0051 +162 +161 136045 047 030 003 01
233830 3000N 08752W 8423 01530 //// +160 //// 134048 049 032 004 01
233900 2959N 08753W 8426 01527 0052 +167 //// 135051 053 032 004 01
233930 2958N 08755W 8419 01536 0045 +163 +161 139054 056 031 003 01
234000 2957N 08756W 8425 01526 0043 +165 +147 142056 058 031 003 00
234030 2956N 08757W 8420 01528 0041 +166 +142 138055 059 031 003 00
234100 2955N 08759W 8423 01524 0039 +163 +156 134051 055 030 004 00
234130 2954N 08801W 8422 01525 0037 +164 +153 132055 057 032 003 01
234200 2953N 08802W 8429 01517 0037 +162 +160 135056 056 032 004 01
234230 2952N 08804W 8426 01519 0035 +169 +145 135055 056 034 003 00
234300 2951N 08806W 8424 01517 0034 +164 +162 136056 057 035 005 00
234330 2950N 08807W 8424 01513 0030 +164 +163 137059 062 034 008 00
234400 2949N 08809W 8434 01498 0022 +164 +161 135071 075 033 010 00
234430 2948N 08810W 8313 01633 0032 +169 //// 135047 075 047 025 05
234500 2947N 08812W 8420 01513 0040 +164 +164 132056 058 039 021 03
234530 2946N 08814W 8425 01507 0039 +167 +167 139056 058 046 018 00
$$

[wxman57]

Met on Fox News just said this might be a weak cat 2 now

He/she is clearly clueless as far as TCs are concerned. Change channel.

[wxman57]

Recon showing the huge windfield to the east of the storm.

https://i.imgur.com/pdQhRZM.png

Look at the surface obs beneath those FL winds. 20-25 kts. That's what I'm seeing in my plot of surface obs offshore Mobile Bay. Those winds don't appear to be making it down to the surface.