ATL: OPHELIA - Extratropical - Discussion

[1900hurricane]

In the northeastern Atlantic.

91L INVEST 171007 0600 32.7N 38.5W ATL 30 1010

[tolakram]

Discussion was here: viewtopic.php?f=31&t=119293

[WeatherGuesser]

1. A non-tropical area of low pressure is located about 700 miles
southwest of the Azores. This system is beginning to acquire
subtropical characteristics, and environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for the development of a tropical or
subtropical cyclone during the next day or so while the low drifts
toward the southwest. Thereafter, the atmosphere is expected to
become hostile for further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[TheAustinMan]

Looking fairly decent as the sun sets. Organized circulation is apparent, so it's probably not long until we still this designated as a subtropical cyclone.

[bob rulz]

I'm not the most experienced when it comes to subtropical, but I feel like I've seen worse-looking storms designated

[johngaltfla]

And one of the most fascinating hurricane seasons in memory continues. If this develops and threatens the Iberian Peninsula it will be a huge story regardless of the storms strength and real impact.

[tolakram]

SLIDER IR

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=18463.5&y=4751&z=5&im=18&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=13&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[CyclonicFury]

Convection beginning to increase near the center. If it can have a good DMAX, should be ready for classification by tomorrow morning.

[BZSTORM]

Is there a model thread for this yet or waiting till its named as depression or storm?

[tolakram]

Is there a model thread for this yet or waiting till its named as depression or storm?

No model thread but you can make one. ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

[Sciencerocks]

Convection building over the center....

Expect subtropical advisories soon...

[BZSTORM]

Is there a model thread for this yet or waiting till its named as depression or storm?

No model thread but you can make one. ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

don't wish to sound dumb but I don't actually know how to start a new thread. It's Ok will wait for someone to create one so I can follow the info thanks

[SuperMarioBros99thx]

Created thread. GEM wants to make this hurricane and sends it to around Western Europe.

[Ryxn]

Is there a model thread for this yet or waiting till its named as depression or storm?

No model thread but you can make one. ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

don't wish to sound dumb but I don't actually know how to start a new thread. It's Ok will wait for someone to create one so I can follow the info thanks

A models thread has already been created but for future's notice, go to "Active Storms/Invests - Atlantic/EastPAC/CentralPAC" page then click "New Topic *" which is at the top-left corner of the forum board.

[Sciencerocks]

Yes, but the gfs 18z certainly doens't. It kills it off after 100 hours more or less.

[tolakram]

GFS and Euro also kill it quickly.

[talkon]

The best track for 00z interestingly lists this as a TD:

AL, 91, 2017100800, , BEST, 0, 313N, 395W, 30, 1010, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1017, 170, 60, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 036,

[CyclonicFury]

Tonight's ASCAT passes showed a well-defined circulation with an uncontaminated vector of 35 kt winds. It just needs to develop more convection and we should have Ophelia sometime tomorrow.

[galaxy401]

The best track for 00z interestingly lists this as a TD:

AL, 91, 2017100800, , BEST, 0, 313N, 395W, 30, 1010, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1017, 170, 60, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 036,

Strange, there isn't any advisories yet. An error?

[Hammy]

The best track for 00z interestingly lists this as a TD:

AL, 91, 2017100800, , BEST, 0, 313N, 395W, 30, 1010, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1017, 170, 60, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 036,

Strange, there isn't any advisories yet. An error?

Based on satellite it looks like they were going to upgrade but reconsidered as the convection decreased after.