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gatorcane wrote:850mb vorticity has increased the past 6 hours. It looks like this vort moves SW or W and gets stretched but then the overall area of disturbed weather moves SE and is involved in spinning up a new vorticity NE of Puerto Rico in a few days. The GFS ensembles are showing some hits for example as well as the GFS op on the new area that spawns. A little complicated but thought a thread was warranted.
AJC3 wrote:gatorcane wrote:850mb vorticity has increased the past 6 hours. It looks like this vort moves SW or W and gets stretched but then the overall area of disturbed weather moves SE and is involved in spinning up a new vorticity NE of Puerto Rico in a few days. The GFS ensembles are showing some hits for example as well as the GFS op on the new area that spawns. A little complicated but thought a thread was warranted.
Your post contains info on two separate systems, as what's out there now really isn't involved in the system that we'll eventually see several days down the road.
For the ones that's out there right now, as you alluded to, 850MB vort progs from all the global model guidance shows this system shearing out over the next couple days due to strong low level deformation. Probably won't see this organize any further than what has already spun up.
On the other hand, the baroclinically enhanced system that spins up in that same area up next Tuesday-Wednesday (which you are showing in your forecast maps) will probably be something to watch as it moves west, most likely as a highly sheared inverted trough. It develops in an area of strong forcing on the east side of a cutoff mid to upper level low which pinches off from the west side of the mid oceanic trough (TUTT) in about 2 days north of the Lesser Antilles, then retrogrades westward into that same area north of the GA, where the current system is, in another 36-48 hours after it cuts off.
Complicated, as you say, but the 850MB vort progs pretty clearly show these to be two separate entities. No issues as starting a thread for this is fine. I suspect though, that as we see this one fizzle and the other start to take shape farther east, we'll wind up locking this thread and starting a new one.
LarryWx wrote:^Have there been any TCs hit FL from the Atlantic side traveling largely east to west in mid Oct or later? Actually yes though not many. But there just having been some is enough to believe something similar would have a slight chance to happen in about a week due to the persistent ridging to the north along with the model hints.
Past occurrences on record of TC hits on FL from east (not either a Caribbean or Gulf origin) mid Oct or later since 1851: 7 times or about once every 24 years on average meaning not so rare that this possibility shouldn't be considered. (Also, a few weak hits may not be on record, especially pre-1900). Here are the 7 on record:
1. 1859: TS landfall Oct 17 http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
2. 1906: TD near landfall Oct 17
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
3. 1935: cat 2 H landfall Nov 4
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
4. 1941: TS indirect hit Keys Oct 17 (and later landfall W FL)
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
5. 1946: TS landfall Nov 1
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
6. 1984: TD landfall Oct 26
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
7. 1985: Kate cat 2 H indirect hit Keys Nov 19 (and later landfall W FL)
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
LarryWx wrote:0Z models update for area expected to form between Bermuda and Lesser Antilles around Mon night/Tue:
0Z GFS: just a very weak low or wave that teases FL early next week
0Z GEFS: most of the 20 members at least form a wave or weak low Tue. Several cross FL late week into weekend. Three become a TS and 2 of those TS hit FL, one on SE FL 10/13 and the other on NE FL on 10/15.
0Z CMC: forms a strong TS or cat 1 H that gets to near the Bahamas next weekend but then stops and never reaches FL
0Z GEPS: most of the 20 members at least form a wave or weak low Tue. Several cross FL late week into weekend
with one strong TS hitting south-central FL 10/14.
0Z Euro/EPS: no more than a wave is suggested and it is faster moving and further south than the GFS/CMC. The Euro has a very weak low or wave pass near the N coast of Cuba on 10/13.
0Z NAVGEM: a very weak low passes to the south along N coast of Cuba late week, similar to the Euro/EPS in speed and in being further south than the GFS/CMC.
In summary per 0Z model consensus: there will very likely be some kind of entity with genesis around Monday night or Tue moving westward toward FL below the unusual persistent ridging from then through late week, possibly into the weekend, and maybe even into early next week. Although the odds of an actual TC crossing FL remain low as of now, they are well above 0%. Therefore, this will likely bear watching as we get to Tuesday and beyond in this more August-like pattern. IF there were to be a TC hitting FL, the highest chance would be between 10/13 and 10/15. History shows that FL gets hit from something similar from the east about once every couple of decades on average in mid Oct or later. The last one was Kate of 1985.
gatorcane wrote:Thanks for the explanation of this complicated scenario AJC3. The 12Z GFS ensembles show 5 members reaching the east coast of Florida and that looks like TS strength for a couple of those members?
LarryWx wrote:0Z GFS has a weak low hit FL from the east on Saturday.
0Z CMC has a 998 strong TS? hit SE FL from the east on Friday followed by a move into the Gulf. Then, it curls around in the Gulf sort of like Kate of 1985 and hits the FL Big Bend with a 980 mb H 10/17-8, which is similar to the 10/18 track on the 12Z CMC.
LarryWx wrote:0Z GFS has a weak low hit FL from the east on Saturday.
0Z CMC has a 998 strong TS? hit SE FL from the east on Friday followed by a move into the Gulf. Then, it curls around in the Gulf sort of like Kate of 1985 and hits the FL Big Bend with a 980 mb H 10/17-8, which is similar to the 10/18 track on the 12Z CMC.
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