
ATL: OPHELIA - Extratropical - Discussion
Moderator: S2k Moderators
- 1900hurricane
- Category 5
- Posts: 6059
- Age: 34
- Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
- Location: Houston, TX
- Contact:
Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
I think ADT needs to be thrown out right now as it is obviously too high. This is driving the SATCON mean up probably too high too. However, microwave intensity estimates (AMSU, ATMS, SSMIS) are all hanging out around 60 kt right now. That may be a good compromise intensity between subjective Dvorak and the possibly low-biased ASCAT data.


0 likes
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.
Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/
Opinions expressed are mine alone.
Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/
Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
ASCAT says this is still 40 kts
NHC needs to absolutely chuck the Dvorak estimates for this storm and give them the zero weight they deserve. This is a 40-45 kt TS at most
NHC needs to absolutely chuck the Dvorak estimates for this storm and give them the zero weight they deserve. This is a 40-45 kt TS at most
1 likes
Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Alyono wrote:ASCAT says this is still 40 kts
NHC needs to absolutely chuck the Dvorak estimates for this storm and give them the zero weight they deserve. This is a 40-45 kt TS at most
No doubt something is off, but I can't imagine only 40-45kt... best looking 40-45kt TS I've ever seen.
1 likes
- fwbbreeze
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 896
- Joined: Sun Mar 21, 2004 10:09 pm
- Location: Fort Walton Beach, FL
Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
great structure this morning...though lacking deep convection.


0 likes
-
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
There is the resolution issue regarding ASCAT, but yeah in the absence of Recon, I would have only gone 50-55 kt (more weight on ASCAT despite the resolution issue). Perhaps the winds aren't reaching the surface over the cooler water.
If only money were unlimited and we could send Recon planes to the Azores to use as a base.
If only money were unlimited and we could send Recon planes to the Azores to use as a base.
Last edited by CrazyC83 on Wed Oct 11, 2017 9:48 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
- 1900hurricane
- Category 5
- Posts: 6059
- Age: 34
- Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
- Location: Houston, TX
- Contact:
Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
NHC goes with 60 kt, which is appears similar to my line of thinking.
000
WTNT42 KNHC 111439
TCDAT2
Tropical Storm Ophelia Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
1100 AM AST Wed Oct 11 2017
If I only had conventional satellite imagery, I would definitely
estimate that Ophelia was a hurricane. The cyclone has a ragged eye
surrounded by deep convection and cyclonically curved bands.
Furthermore, Dvorak intensity estimates, both subjective and
objective, from all agencies are T4.0 plus. However, several ASCAT
passes during the past day or so indicate that the winds have been
lower than the winds one could assign the cyclone by using Dvorak.
Once again this morning, a pair of ASCAT passes showed winds of
less than 45 kt, but I am assuming that the ASCAT can not resolve
the sharp wind gradient typically associated with an eyewall, and
earlier SSMIS data indicated that one is present. Since we do not
have a hurricane hunter plane to give us exact measurements, we
need to compromise between the very valuable satellite-based
estimates, and the initial intensity is set at 60 kt in this
advisory.
Although the ocean is not too warm, the shear is low and the
upper-troposphere is cool. These factors should provide some
low-octane fuel favoring slight strengthening, and Ophelia is
still expected to become a hurricane at any time within the next 12
hours. Extratropical transition is likely to start between day 3 and
day 4, and Ophelia is anticipated to remain a strong cyclone over
the northeastern Atlantic.
Ophelia is moving slowly toward the east at 3 kt, embedded within
light steering currents, and little motion is expected today. A
mid-level trough is forecast to amplify west of Ophelia, and this
pattern will provide a stronger southwesterly steering flow
which eventually force the cyclone to move toward the northeast with
increasing forward speed. Most of the track models agree with this
solution increasing the confidence in the track forecast. The NHC
forecast follows very closely the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA
which has been very skillful this season.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/1500Z 30.0N 36.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 29.9N 36.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 12/1200Z 30.1N 35.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 13/0000Z 30.8N 34.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 13/1200Z 31.5N 33.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 14/1200Z 34.0N 26.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 15/1200Z 40.0N 17.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 16/1200Z 51.5N 12.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Avila
WTNT42 KNHC 111439
TCDAT2
Tropical Storm Ophelia Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
1100 AM AST Wed Oct 11 2017
If I only had conventional satellite imagery, I would definitely
estimate that Ophelia was a hurricane. The cyclone has a ragged eye
surrounded by deep convection and cyclonically curved bands.
Furthermore, Dvorak intensity estimates, both subjective and
objective, from all agencies are T4.0 plus. However, several ASCAT
passes during the past day or so indicate that the winds have been
lower than the winds one could assign the cyclone by using Dvorak.
Once again this morning, a pair of ASCAT passes showed winds of
less than 45 kt, but I am assuming that the ASCAT can not resolve
the sharp wind gradient typically associated with an eyewall, and
earlier SSMIS data indicated that one is present. Since we do not
have a hurricane hunter plane to give us exact measurements, we
need to compromise between the very valuable satellite-based
estimates, and the initial intensity is set at 60 kt in this
advisory.
Although the ocean is not too warm, the shear is low and the
upper-troposphere is cool. These factors should provide some
low-octane fuel favoring slight strengthening, and Ophelia is
still expected to become a hurricane at any time within the next 12
hours. Extratropical transition is likely to start between day 3 and
day 4, and Ophelia is anticipated to remain a strong cyclone over
the northeastern Atlantic.
Ophelia is moving slowly toward the east at 3 kt, embedded within
light steering currents, and little motion is expected today. A
mid-level trough is forecast to amplify west of Ophelia, and this
pattern will provide a stronger southwesterly steering flow
which eventually force the cyclone to move toward the northeast with
increasing forward speed. Most of the track models agree with this
solution increasing the confidence in the track forecast. The NHC
forecast follows very closely the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA
which has been very skillful this season.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/1500Z 30.0N 36.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 29.9N 36.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 12/1200Z 30.1N 35.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 13/0000Z 30.8N 34.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 13/1200Z 31.5N 33.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 14/1200Z 34.0N 26.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 15/1200Z 40.0N 17.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 16/1200Z 51.5N 12.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Avila
1 likes
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.
Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/
Opinions expressed are mine alone.
Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 8903
- Age: 39
- Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am
Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Looks like a hurricane to me. Will probably be upgraded to one later today.
0 likes
Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
I knew that was Lix after reading the first sentence. 

7 likes
Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Wonder how far a drone can be maneuvered to invest?
0 likes
Andy D
(For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.)
(For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.)
Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Buck wrote:Alyono wrote:ASCAT says this is still 40 kts
NHC needs to absolutely chuck the Dvorak estimates for this storm and give them the zero weight they deserve. This is a 40-45 kt TS at most
No doubt something is off, but I can't imagine only 40-45kt... best looking 40-45kt TS I've ever seen.
I'm surprised as well, but it is what it is
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 2672
- Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2010 6:46 am
Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Why is NHC still handling this when it's going away from North and Central America? Isn't there a Euro counterpart? Is is just by agreement or contract?
0 likes
Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
WeatherGuesser wrote:Why is NHC still handling this when it's going away from North and Central America? Isn't there a Euro counterpart? Is is just by agreement or contract?
The NHC is the defacto agency for the entire Atlantic for hurricanes.
0 likes
- 1900hurricane
- Category 5
- Posts: 6059
- Age: 34
- Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
- Location: Houston, TX
- Contact:
Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Hurricane - Discussion
Take two.
AL, 17, 2017101118, , BEST, 0, 300N, 362W, 65, 990, HU, 34, NEQ, 40, 50, 60, 50, 1017, 300, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, OPHELIA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 036,
AL, 17, 2017101118, , BEST, 0, 300N, 362W, 65, 990, HU, 50, NEQ, 20, 30, 30, 20, 1017, 300, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, OPHELIA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 036,
AL, 17, 2017101118, , BEST, 0, 300N, 362W, 65, 990, HU, 64, NEQ, 0, 20, 20, 0, 1017, 300, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, OPHELIA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 036,
AL, 17, 2017101118, , BEST, 0, 300N, 362W, 65, 990, HU, 50, NEQ, 20, 30, 30, 20, 1017, 300, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, OPHELIA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 036,
AL, 17, 2017101118, , BEST, 0, 300N, 362W, 65, 990, HU, 64, NEQ, 0, 20, 20, 0, 1017, 300, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, OPHELIA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 036,
0 likes
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.
Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/
Opinions expressed are mine alone.
Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/
- galaxy401
- Category 5
- Posts: 2410
- Age: 29
- Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:04 pm
- Location: Casa Grande, Arizona
Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Time for the new ASCAT to ruin the mood once again. 

1 likes
Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.
- Kazmit
- Category 5
- Posts: 2124
- Age: 22
- Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2016 8:49 am
- Location: Williamsburg, VA / Bermuda
Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
If only recon could fly all the way out there. 

0 likes
Igor 2010, Sandy 2012, Fay 2014, Gonzalo 2014, Joaquin 2015, Nicole 2016, Humberto 2019
I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Kazmit wrote:If only recon could fly all the way out there.
If only they could fly from Portugal.

3 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 21238
- Age: 42
- Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
- Location: Ready for the Chase.
- Contact:
Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Cimss map changed to hurricane..
0 likes
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 4806
- Age: 41
- Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:54 pm
- Location: South Florida
Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Ophelia is now the 10th consecutive hurricane of the season. Wow...
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 2672
- Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2010 6:46 am
Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Hurricane - Discussion
BULLETIN
Hurricane Ophelia Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
500 PM AST Wed Oct 11 2017
...OPHELIA BECOMES THE 10TH HURRICANE OF THE 2017 SEASON...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.0N 36.1W
ABOUT 760 MI...1220 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES
Hurricane Ophelia Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
500 PM AST Wed Oct 11 2017
...OPHELIA BECOMES THE 10TH HURRICANE OF THE 2017 SEASON...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.0N 36.1W
ABOUT 760 MI...1220 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES
0 likes
- Kazmit
- Category 5
- Posts: 2124
- Age: 22
- Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2016 8:49 am
- Location: Williamsburg, VA / Bermuda
Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Hurricane - Discussion
2017 is now tied with 1878, 1886, and 1893 for the most consecutive hurricanes on record. The most recent tropical storm formed on July 31st (Emily).
4 likes
Igor 2010, Sandy 2012, Fay 2014, Gonzalo 2014, Joaquin 2015, Nicole 2016, Humberto 2019
I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 6 guests