WPAC: INVEST 90W

[mrbagyo]

90WINVEST.15kts-1003mb-162N-1254E.

[euro6208]

AN AREA OF SHARP TURNING (INVEST 90W) AT THE NORTHWESTERN
EXTENT OF AN ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH HAS PERSISTED NEAR
16.2N 125.4E, APPROXIMATELY 270 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
VERY BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION LOCATED
MOSTLY TO THE WEST OF ITS CENTER. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED IN A MOSTLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL DUE TO GOOD UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS), AND
VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY INDICATING THAT INVEST 90W MAY CONSOLIDATE OR
POTENTIALLY MERGE WITH INVEST 98W TO FORM A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE TRACKING WESTWARD NEAR THE TIP OF LUZON.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[euro6208]

AN AREA OF SHARP TURNING (INVEST 90W) AT THE NORTHWESTERN
EXTENT OF AN ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH HAS PERSISTED NEAR
16.2N 125.4E, APPROXIMATELY 270 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
VERY BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION LOCATED
MOSTLY TO THE WEST OF ITS CENTER. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED IN A MOSTLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL DUE TO GOOD UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS), AND
VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY INDICATING THAT INVEST 90W MAY CONSOLIDATE OR
POTENTIALLY MERGE WITH INVEST 98W TO FORM A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE TRACKING WESTWARD NEAR THE TIP OF LUZON.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 16.2N 125.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 125.8E, APPROXIMATELY
280 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION ABOVE A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC). AN 110140 METOP-B ASCAT PASS SHOWS A BROAD,
ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH AN ARC OF 15 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING IN FROM
THE SOUTH. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS PUTS INVEST 90W IN AT THE EDGE OF
A REGION OF LOW (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND VERY WARM (30-
31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS
CURRENTLY INDICATING THAT INVEST 90W WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST
TOWARDS LUZON WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING OR POTENTIALLY MERGING WITH
ANOTHER AREA OF TIGHT TURNING WITHIN THE TROUGH (INVEST 98W) OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[doomhaMwx]

90W INVEST 171011 0600 15.4N 124.9E WPAC 15 1010

98W Thread

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 16.2N 125.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 125.6E, APPROXIMATELY
167 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION ABOVE A PARTIALLY EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). AN 110140 METOP-B ASCAT PASS SHOWS A
BROAD, ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH AN ARC OF 15 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING
IN FROM THE SOUTH. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS PUTS INVEST 90W IN AT THE
EDGE OF A REGION OF LOW (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND VERY
WARM (30-31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE
IS CURRENTLY INDICATING THAT INVEST 90W WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST
TOWARDS LUZON WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING OR POTENTIALLY MERGING WITH
ANOTHER AREA OF TIGHT TURNING WITHIN THE TROUGH (INVEST 98W) OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.2N
125.6E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.