ATL: Invest 92L - Discussion

[drezee]

Classified this AM:

Invest 92L
As of 06:00 UTC Oct 13, 2017:

Location: 17.4°N 55.3°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1010 mb
Radius of Circulation: 120 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 50 NM


Should head ots..

[Aric Dunn]

Not before the vort/wave axis moves through the NE islands. 00z Euro mildely develops it just north of PR before recurving. needs to be watched..


that and also there is still a vort/lobe/circ more south in the elongated wave axis. the shear is much less there.

[Gustywind]

Not before the vort/wave axis moves through the NE islands. 00z Euro mildely develops it just north of PR before recurving. needs to be watched..


that and also there is still a vort/lobe/circ more south in the elongated wave axis. the shear is much less there.

OK thanks ARIC. So what are you latest thougts for us in the Leewards? We should wait for what especially? A strong twave or not, or more than a TW? With what effects? Thanks.

[Aric Dunn]

Not before the vort/wave axis moves through the NE islands. 00z Euro mildely develops it just north of PR before recurving. needs to be watched..


that and also there is still a vort/lobe/circ more south in the elongated wave axis. the shear is much less there.

OK thanks ARIC. So what are you latest thougts for us in the Leewards? We should wait for what especially? A strong twave or not, or more than a TW? With what effects? Thanks.

rain and some breezy conditions.

[Gustywind]

Not before the vort/wave axis moves through the NE islands. 00z Euro mildely develops it just north of PR before recurving. needs to be watched..


that and also there is still a vort/lobe/circ more south in the elongated wave axis. the shear is much less there.

OK thanks ARIC. So what are you latest thougts for us in the Leewards? We should wait for what especially? A strong twave or not, or more than a TW? With what effects? Thanks.

rain and some breezy conditions.

ok thanks a lot! So not much action from this one?!

[Sanibel]

Naked swirl headed for the islands...Shows what difference a month can make...


Here's me in Irma's eyewall:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c5bdBR78YY8

[SEASON_CANCELED]

think season may be toast but lets see.

[msbee]

OK thanks ARIC. So what are you latest thougts for us in the Leewards? We should wait for what especially? A strong twave or not, or more than a TW? With what effects? Thanks.

rain and some breezy conditions.

ok thanks a lot! So not much action from this one?!

I hope not much action from this one. We still have people living with no roofs over their heads.

[Aric Dunn]

rain and some breezy conditions.

ok thanks a lot! So not much action from this one?!

I hope not much action from this one. We still have people living with no roofs over their heads.

well its not going to be a hurricane or anything close.. but already producing TS winds on the east side. and depending on track would bring that over the islands. like it will head over the islands tomorrow. IF convection build a little closer to the center then a TD or TS is possible tomorrow too.

[Aric Dunn]

convection beginning to build around the center. shear is still moderate.. but that not stopped many many systems before... it is also farther south a more west than the models are showing so slightly less shear at the moment.

[msbee]

ok thanks a lot! So not much action from this one?!

I hope not much action from this one. We still have people living with no roofs over their heads.

well its not going to be a hurricane or anything close.. but already producing TS winds on the east side. and depending on track would bring that over the islands. like it will head over the islands tomorrow. IF convection build a little closer to the center then a TD or TS is possible tomorrow too.

Hoping it will go North of St Maarten. even tropical storm force winds would send tarps flying and expose many of our residents to the elements once again.
We are keeping watch. Thanks for updating, Aric!

[wxman57]

It's just a sheared mess of a tropical wave this morning. About zero chance of any development prior to passing the NE Caribbean. The only development potential appears to be next Tuesday as it merges with a strong cold front well north of the Caribbean. It would be a frontal low at that point. The threat to the NE Caribbean islands is for increasing rain chances over the next couple of days.

[msbee]

It's just a sheared mess of a tropical wave this morning. About zero chance of any development prior to passing the NE Caribbean. The only development potential appears to be next Tuesday as it merges with a strong cold front well north of the Caribbean. It would be a frontal low at that point. The threat to the NE Caribbean islands is for increasing rain chances over the next couple of days.

Thank you wxman57. I thought it looked pretty raggedy this morning.

[Sciencerocks]

Maintains a LLC as it tracks north of the islands. Gfs hints at development after 60 hours as it is heading out to sea so I'd watch it.

[abajan]

Blowup of convection over Barbuda for the last couple hours.

[msbee]

Blowup of convection over Barbuda for the last couple hours.

SXM is currently experiencing a lot of wind. thunder and lightning too, but not much rain. People feel nervous, considering they just went through Irma.
Some tarps flying off homes I hear.

[abajan]

Blowup of convection over Barbuda for the last couple hours.

SXM is currently experiencing a lot of wind. thunder and lightning too, but not much rain. People feel nervous, considering they just went through Irma.
Some tarps flying off homes I hear.

Wow. Sorry to hear that.

We got lots of rain and a bit of thunder this morning, in association with a combination of 92L and the ITCZ, which caused flooding in many parts of the island. We've been under a flood warning since 6 AM. Expecting more tonight and into tomorrow.

[wxman57]

Still no circulation. It's a sheared tropical wave. The only chance of development comes Tuesday when it merges with the cold front and becomes a frontal low.

[wxman57]

Not much to it today. Wave looks a bit weaker than yesterday. Surface pressures relatively high in the region. Producing some thunderstorms over the NE Caribbean. Still looks like it merges with the cold front before developing.

[msbee]

Blowup of convection over Barbuda for the last couple hours.

SXM is currently experiencing a lot of wind. thunder and lightning too, but not much rain. People feel nervous, considering they just went through Irma.
Some tarps flying off homes I hear.

Wow. Sorry to hear that.

We got lots of rain and a bit of thunder this morning, in association with a combination of 92L and the ITCZ, which caused flooding in many parts of the island. We've been under a flood warning since 6 AM. Expecting more tonight and into tomorrow.

Stay dry, Abajan. Light rain here today, just enough to make those living under tarps miserable.