norva wrote:Way to early to get comfortable imo. Lot of month left to go.
Ehh, there is also nothing happening or even forecast to be happening worth worrying about. Until something actually spins up, it's nice to relax while you can.
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norva wrote:Way to early to get comfortable imo. Lot of month left to go.
Shell Mound wrote:I'm thinking that any activity in the Caribbean will wait until late October or early November. That's when the TUTT-inducing subsidence over the basin should begin to move out and upper-level +VVP moves in. However, the interval should be long enough to delay formation until the last week of October, if not later. This delay is crucial. A delay would put formation on or after 23 October. The latest major hurricane to hit the mainland U.S. occurred on 25 October 1921 near Tarpon Springs, Florida. Historically, most of the hurricanes to hit the U.S. in October and November occurred in South Florida in October, with a significant drop-off in activity around Halloween. Only a few rarities like the 1935 Yankee hurricane and Kate (1985), both November hurricanes and Florida hits each, have hit the U.S. on a date later than Halloween. So I think that the mainland U.S. is likely to escape further hurricane hits in 2017, barring something like the latter two cases. However, I do think that one additional major hurricane in the Caribbean is likely, and that it would probably impact Central America or the Antilles. The threat to those areas often continues well into November in active seasons such as 1932, 1998, 1999, 2001, 2008, and last season.
TheStormExpert wrote::uarrow: Check the Global Models thread as the latest 12z GFS maybe latching onto development occurring in the NW Caribbean in 8-10 days from that disturbance we've been talking about for days. Aligns perfectly with climatology.
TheStormExpert wrote::uarrow: Check the Global Models thread as the latest 12z GFS maybe latching onto development occurring in the NW Caribbean in 8-10 days from that disturbance we've been talking about for days. Aligns perfectly with climatology.
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