ATL: OPHELIA - Extratropical - Discussion

[Airboy]

I guess it could be a bit of a rain make up here Scandinavia if it goes if it turns a bit east at the end of the road.

[Vince_and_Grace_fan]

NHC kept the intensity at 85 kt, but I think it is at least 90 kt again, if not a bit higher. The could tops as cold as at the yesterday's peak and the eye is better defind.

https://199.9.2.143/tcdat/tc17/ATL/17L.OPHELIA/ir/geo/1km/20171012.2245.msg3.x.ir1km.17LOPHELIA.85kts-979mb-305N-357W.100pc.jpg
https://199.9.2.143/tcdat/tc17/ATL/17L.OPHELIA/ir/geo/1km/20171014.0800.msg3.x.ir1km.17LOPHELIA.85kts-971mb-334N-297W.100pc.jpg

It looks pretty impressive on the European satellite image too.

[KWT]

Impressive hurricane for so far NE in the basin, nearly at the latitude of Portugal/Spain now.

Also worth noting the cold front is very obvious already, how Ophelia interacts with the cold front will be interesting.

ECM still showing a VERY interesting presentation with Ophelia even near Ireland, it kind of looks like a hybrid system in terms of presentaton, an eyewall like feature presists on the frontal side of the feature for some time and even close to Ireland the radar suggests a convective core. Strengthening seems extra-tropical but there is alot of residual heat left over pretty much upto 50N!

[Kazmit]

Sunrise.

[talkon]

Ophelia is still intensifying while over 25C waters, becoming more symmetric and having colder cloud tops.
Looking more and more like a major or even a Cat 4 as the latest 1015z frame has an instantaneous DT of 6.0 (WMG eye in LG w/ B ring) and Raw ADT of 5.9.

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 OCT 2017 Time : 101500 UTC
Lat : 33:56:23 N Lon : 28:20:28 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.6 / 950.4mb/104.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.6 5.9 5.9

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 26 km

Center Temp : +15.8C Cloud Region Temp : -61.5C

Scene Type : EYE

[talkon]

SAB comes in at T5.5.

TXNT23 KNES 141207
TCSNTL

A. 17L (OPHELIA)

B. 14/1145Z

C. 34.1N

D. 27.7W

E. ONE/MET-10

F. T5.5/5.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...DT=5.5 BASED ON WMG EYE EMBEDDED AND SURROUNDED BY
LG. PT=5.5. MET=5.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SCHWARTZ

[Hurricaneman]

I would say major at 11

[WAcyclone]

Well, I'm a bit surprised they did it:

AL, 17, 2017101412, , BEST, 0, 342N, 277W, 100, 960, HU, 34, NEQ, 70, 80, 70, 60, 1011, 150, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, OPHELIA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 036,

Looks like Ophelia is the sixth major hurricane of the Atlantic season...

[Kazmit]

Wow, yet another major for this season. I'm not surprised, it certainly has the satellite appearance of one.

[tolakram]

SLIDER.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=19032.625&y=4460&z=5&im=18&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[CrazyC83]

Based on the continued improvement, I would go with 105 kt, closer to the ADT.

Is this the first major in the satellite era in this part of the Atlantic?

[Vince_and_Grace_fan]

Now the NHC can say "if it looks like a major hurricane, it probably is, despite its environment and unusual location".

[Kazmit]

This is what earth nullschool shows scraping the western tip of Ireland:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2017/10/16/1200Z/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-12.51,51.79,3000/loc=-10.110,51.196

[WAcyclone]

Comparison of Lee at peak intensity (left) and Ophelia (right):



I'm not surprised anymore

[EquusStorm]

A major Atlantic hurricane best viewed from EUMETSAT... at this point I've run out of things to say about this season.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

And so our tally is now 15/10/6 with ACE at 218. Most similar to the 2004 season, which we may close in. 1 more long-tracking intense hurricane and we are set to reach 7 and exceed 1995, 2004

[talkon]

000
WTNT42 KNHC 141438
TCDAT2

Hurricane Ophelia Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
1100 AM AST Sat Oct 14 2017

During the past few hours, Ophelia's satellite presentation has
improved significantly. The eye has become even more distinct
with a temperature of 16 deg C, and has been surrounded by very
deep convection. T-numbers from TAFB and SAB have reached 5.5 on the
Dvorak scale, and the objective numbers from CIMMS have been
oscillating around T5.8 and T5.9 recently. Based on these estimates,
the initial intensity has been increased conservatively to 100 kt,
making Ophelia a category 3 hurricane on the SSHS. Ophelia is a
quite intense and rare hurricane for its location in the
northeastern Atlantic. Increasing shear and cold waters will
soon begin to impact Ophelia, and the hurricane should begin to
acquire extratropical characteristics in about 36 hours or sooner.
Although some weakening is anticipated, Ophelia is expected to reach
the British Isles as a powerful extratropical cyclone with hurricane
force winds. Dissipation is forecast in about 4 days after the
system moved over these Isles.

Satellite fixes indicate that Ophelia is moving toward the northeast
or 055 degrees at 22 kt. The hurricane is well embedded within the
southwesterly flow associated with the southern extension of a large
mid-latitude trough, and this pattern should continue to steer the
cyclone northeastward and north-northeastward with increasing
forward speed for the next 2 to 3 days until dissipation. Track
models are in excellent agreement and the guidance envelope is quite
tight. The NHC forecast is not different from previous ones, and it
is very close to the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA and the
multi-model ensemble TVCX.

Given that Ophelia is forecast to become extratropical, the wind
field should expand, resulting in impacts over portions of the
British Isles regardless of its exact location or strength.

Although the center of Ophelia is not forecast to reach Ireland or
the UK for another couple of days, wind and rains will arrive
well in advance of the cyclone center. Individuals in those
locations should consult products from their local meteorological
service for more information on local impacts.

Tropical-storm-force winds are possible throughout the Azores
after Ophelia passes to the south and east later today and tonight
as a cold front moves through the islands. Interests in the Azores
should refer to products issued by the Azores Weather Forecast and
Watch Center.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Ophelia is expected to be a powerful extratropical cyclone with
hurricane force winds Monday while it moves near Ireland and the
United Kingdom. Direct impacts from wind and heavy rain in portions
of these areas are likely, along with dangerous marine conditions.
For more details on the magnitude, timing, and location of impacts
from post-tropical Ophelia, residents in Ireland should refer to
products issued by Met Eireann, and residents in the United Kingdom
should refer to products issued by the Met Office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 34.8N 26.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 36.5N 23.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 40.5N 18.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 46.5N 14.0W 85 KT 100 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 16/1200Z 51.5N 11.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 17/1200Z 59.0N 6.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

[EquusStorm]

If my memory serves, at 26.6W this may be the easternmost formation of an Atlantic major on record as well.

[galaxy401]

Well that is something I didn't expect to wake up too! One more major hurricane will tie the record for the Atlantic!

[Whiskerbarb]

Newby here.

Whilst the UK is use to large Atlantic depressions bringing 50-60-or even 70mph winds,this Ophelia system approaching up from the SW is rare. Will be interesting to see what effect the shear and colder water ahead does mind but as newby lookng in most days what a facinating and sadly devastating Hurricane season we are having right now.

Keep up the great work.