ATL: OPHELIA - Extratropical - Discussion

[WeatherGuesser]

At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ophelia was
located near latitude 39.0 North, longitude 18.3 West. Ophelia is
moving toward the northeast near 35 mph (56 km/h). A continued
northeastward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected
today, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast tonight. On the
forecast track, the center of Ophelia will approach Ireland on
Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 105 mph (165 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional weakening is expected today and
on Monday, but Ophelia is forecast to become a powerful
post-tropical cyclone with hurricane-force winds as it approaches
Ireland on Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

[bob rulz]

Any chance this can actually make it to Ireland as a tropical system still?

[Jelff]

Google + GIS map showing Hurricane Ophelia track forecast with cone of uncertainty.

https://goo.gl/DMifgM

[Dean_175]

Any chance this can actually make it to Ireland as a tropical system still?

That's a good question that many on here seem to be wondering:

As a tropical cyclone? I highly doubt it will. You can already see signs that it will undergo transition in the next day or two. Although the warm core structure is separate at the moment, satellite shows the outer cloud structure of Ophelia is starting to merge with the frontal boundary. You can also see some of the relevant changes in structure starting to take hold-the very beginning of an extra-tropical satellite signature that will become defined in the next day or so. It will only interact with the front more as time goes on and it is already under significant shear. Also it is moving over increasingly cool water.

Water off the coast near Ireland/UK is very much cooler- at around 13-16C (or around 60 F) - fairly cold for a tropical cyclone even if the upper levels of the atmosphere are cool.


That said- there is a very good chance that strong tropical storm or even minimal hurricane force winds could occur in Ireland from a post-tropical Ophelia.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

i thought so.. dont believe the hype. a Category 3 was never going to hit Hit Ireland

[galaxy401]

i thought so.. dont believe the hype. a Category 3 was never going to hit Hit Ireland

Uhhhh I don’t think anyone thought this would be a major hitting Ireland.

[tolakram]

i thought so.. dont believe the hype. a Category 3 was never going to hit Hit Ireland

What hype?

[Kazmit]

When are watches and warnings going to go up?

[Ptarmigan]

It's also only the seventh known storm in the satellite era to develop from non-tropical origins and become a major hurricane, and the first that I can tell that originated from a previously extratropical system.

The others: Alicia 1983 (from remnants of MCV), Diana 1984 (from stalled front?), Bob 1991 (from stalled front), Claudette 1991 (from upper level low), Michael 2012 (from confluence of energy) and Joaquin 2015 (from upper level low).

Alicia formed from a MCV spawned by a cold front. Diana formed from a low pressure area on the tail end of a cold front. Bob came from a frontal trough remnant. Michael was a from a low pressure spawned by a shortwave disturbance. Joaquin is the most intense tropical cyclone that is non-tropical in origin.

[terstorm1012]

When are watches and warnings going to go up?

They're up, the Red and Yellow Warnings issued by Met Eireann and Met UK

[CrazyC83]

All of Ireland is now under Code Red.

The setup is reminiscent of Hurricane Sandy, except on the other side of the Atlantic and with a neutrally tilted trough.

[bob rulz]

Yeah now that I'm seeing this today, there's no chance it hangs on to tropical characteristics. That tropical structure is deteriorating very rapidly.

[Sciencerocks]

Innercore remains entact but by 11pm this should be extratropical. I'd say 70 knots.

[CrazyC83]

Innercore remains entact but by 11pm this should be extratropical. I'd say 70 knots.

I'd say due to baroclinic enhancement it is higher than that - probably still 80 kt but with a lower pressure (say 960mb).

[terstorm1012]

wouldn't surprise me to see 100kt gusts at some coastal locations.

this is probably going to exceed Debbie (1961) and the Great Storm of 1987 in terms of impact.

[Kazmit]

Look how close Ophelia is to the corner of the map. I wonder if they will have to extend it once it goes beyond that.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

So weird to be watching an active Atlantic hurricane less than 24-hours from landfall in Ireland....

[CrazyC83]

Look how close Ophelia is to the corner of the map. I wonder if they will have to extend it once it goes beyond that.

If it is still tropical at 11, they might just have to move the map.

[Sciencerocks]

Maybe trying to redevelop the eye and certainly has maintained its innercore convection...We will see what the nhc does.

[WeatherGuesser]

Since it won't make much difference what effects they get, I'm rooting for it to stay together and make the record.