2017 ACE: NATL - 226.0 | EPAC - 98.2 | WPAC - 154.5 | NIO - 16.1
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
Re: 2017 ACE: NATL - 214.0 | EPAC - 97.9 | WPAC - 117.2 | NIO - 3.9
Every non-2013 year since 2011 has had a major in October now.
2 likes
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 2672
- Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2010 6:46 am
Re: 2017 ACE: NATL - 218.5 | EPAC - 97.9 | WPAC - 117.2 | NIO - 3.9
I take it O will crank up a few more ...
0 likes
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 4806
- Age: 40
- Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:54 pm
- Location: South Florida
2017 ACE: NATL - 218.5 | EPAC - 97.9 | WPAC - 117.2 | NIO - 3.9
Ryan Maue currently has ACE at 220.8. Simply amazing.
Source: http://wx.graphics/tropical/
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Source: http://wx.graphics/tropical/
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
2 likes
- 1900hurricane
- Category 5
- Posts: 6044
- Age: 33
- Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
- Location: Houston, TX
- Contact:
Re: 2017 ACE: NATL - 218.5 | EPAC - 97.9 | WPAC - 117.2 | NIO - 3.9
NAtl PDI has now passed both 2004 and 2005 for most in that basin in the satellite era!
1 likes
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.
Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/
Opinions expressed are mine alone.
Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/
Re: 2017 ACE: NATL - 218.5 | EPAC - 97.9 | WPAC - 117.2 | NIO - 3.9
4th, 5th, 6th place should be falling by tomorrow. Amazing...
Updated 10pm:
Source Ryan Maue
1. 1933.....258.5700
2. 2005.....250.1275
3. 1893.....231.1475
4. 1926.....229.5575
5. 1995.....227.1025
6. 2004.....226.8800
7. 2017.....222.863
Updated 10pm:
Source Ryan Maue
1. 1933.....258.5700
2. 2005.....250.1275
3. 1893.....231.1475
4. 1926.....229.5575
5. 1995.....227.1025
6. 2004.....226.8800
7. 2017.....222.863
1 likes
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
- Category 2
- Posts: 713
- Age: 30
- Joined: Sun Dec 05, 2010 3:05 pm
Re: 2017 ACE: NATL - 214.0 | EPAC - 97.9 | WPAC - 117.2 | NIO - 3.9
Hammy wrote:Every non-2013 year since 2011 has had a major in October now.
2010 is the only other year that didn't have an October major this decade - yet it had three Cat 2s.
Two of the majors have been named Ophelia as well. It's crazy.
0 likes
Kay '22 Hilary '23
Re: 2017 ACE: NATL - 218.5 | EPAC - 97.9 | WPAC - 117.2 | NIO - 3.9
We now have Khanun and soon to be Lan in the WPAC which is sure to bring up the ACE. LAN is the 25th TC of the season. Slow ACE but sure is active number wise. The WPAC never sleeps.
0 likes
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
- xtyphooncyclonex
- Category 5
- Posts: 3688
- Age: 22
- Joined: Sat Dec 08, 2012 9:07 am
- Location: Cebu City
- Contact:
Re: 2017 ACE: NATL - 218.5 | EPAC - 97.9 | WPAC - 117.2 | NIO - 3.9
euro6208 wrote:We now have Khanun and soon to be Lan in the WPAC which is sure to bring up the ACE. LAN is the 25th TC of the season. Slow ACE but sure is active number wise. The WPAC never sleeps.
The WPAC slept from September 16 to October 15....
Nonetheless, we may get around 40 ACE from Lan alone. Resembles Jelawat in 2012 in track somehow with Lan expected to maintain intensity long enough to accrue significant ACE. Since Lan is from a monsoon gyre, we may see Saola and Damrey develop as well, with the former possibly impacting the Visayas.
P.S: They should've kept Vicente. Much cooler name than Lan. Maria is in the WPac lists as well, what would happen to her if she would be retired from the NAtl lists?
Last edited by xtyphooncyclonex on Mon Oct 16, 2017 8:03 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
REMINDER: My opinions that I, or any other NON Pro-Met in this forum, are unofficial. Please do not take my opinions as an official forecast and warning. I am NOT a meteorologist. Following my forecasts blindly may lead to false alarm, danger and risk if official forecasts from agencies are ignored.
Re: 2017 ACE: NATL - 218.5 | EPAC - 97.9 | WPAC - 117.2 | NIO - 3.9
1900hurricane wrote:NAtl PDI has now passed both 2004 and 2005 for most in that basin in the satellite era!
What is the PDI for 2017 so far?
0 likes
- 1900hurricane
- Category 5
- Posts: 6044
- Age: 33
- Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
- Location: Houston, TX
- Contact:
Re: 2017 ACE: NATL - 218.5 | EPAC - 97.9 | WPAC - 117.2 | NIO - 3.9
Ptarmigan wrote:1900hurricane wrote:NAtl PDI has now passed both 2004 and 2005 for most in that basin in the satellite era!
What is the PDI for 2017 so far?
As of 12Z, 222.213375 * 10**6 kt**3. 2005 had 220.03975 and 2004 had 219.405675. Behind these years, 1995 is a distant third for NAtl satellite era data with 181.277375. Prior to this year, 2004 actually had the calendar year record for the same timeframe since 2005 didn't pass 2004 until January 2006 near the end of Zeta's life.
0 likes
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.
Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/
Opinions expressed are mine alone.
Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/
Re: 2017 ACE: NATL - 218.5 | EPAC - 97.9 | WPAC - 117.2 | NIO - 3.9
Does Ophelia still gain ACE points even if it is extratropical?
0 likes
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: 2017 ACE: NATL - 218.5 | EPAC - 97.9 | WPAC - 117.2 | NIO - 3.9
blp wrote:Does Ophelia still gain ACE points even if it is extratropical?
Subtropical and extratropical are not counted for official ACE
0 likes
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: 2017 ACE: NATL - 218.5 | EPAC - 97.9 | WPAC - 117.2 | NIO - 3.9
Ntxw wrote:blp wrote:Does Ophelia still gain ACE points even if it is extratropical?
Subtropical and extratropical are not counted for official ACE
Thanks for clarifying. Looks like she is going to fall just short of 2004.
Updated 10pm:
Source Ryan Maue
1. 1933.....258.5700
2. 2005.....250.1275
3. 1893.....231.1475
4. 1926.....229.5575
5. 1995.....227.1025
6. 2004.....226.8800
7. 2017.....225.398
0 likes
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: 2017 ACE: NATL - 218.5 | EPAC - 97.9 | WPAC - 117.2 | NIO - 3.9
1900hurricane wrote:Ptarmigan wrote:1900hurricane wrote:NAtl PDI has now passed both 2004 and 2005 for most in that basin in the satellite era!
What is the PDI for 2017 so far?
As of 12Z, 222.213375 * 10**6 kt**3. 2005 had 220.03975 and 2004 had 219.405675. Behind these years, 1995 is a distant third for NAtl satellite era data with 181.277375. Prior to this year, 2004 actually had the calendar year record for the same timeframe since 2005 didn't pass 2004 until January 2006 near the end of Zeta's life.
2005 had more named storms than 1995, 2004, and 2017. 1995, 2004, and 2017 had more storms forming in the Main Development Region. They had more Cape Verde storms. 2005 had more storms form in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. They tend to form closer to land.
0 likes
Re: 2017 ACE: NATL - 218.5 | EPAC - 97.9 | WPAC - 117.2 | NIO - 3.9
xtyphooncyclonex wrote:euro6208 wrote:We now have Khanun and soon to be Lan in the WPAC which is sure to bring up the ACE. LAN is the 25th TC of the season. Slow ACE but sure is active number wise. The WPAC never sleeps.
The WPAC slept from September 16 to October 15....
Nonetheless, we may get around 40 ACE from Lan alone. Resembles Jelawat in 2017 in track somehow with Lan expected to maintain intensity long enough to accrue significant ACE. Since Lan is from a monsoon gyre, we may see Saola and Damrey develop as well, with the former possibly impacting the Visayas.
P.S: They should've kept Vicente. Much cooler name than Lan. Maria is in the WPac lists as well, what would happen to her if she would be retired from the NAtl lists?
I myself like the name Lan. It is very unique and isn't one of those too asian like. When i said the WPAC never sleeps, i mean the whole year. It never shuts down.
0 likes
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Re: 2017 ACE: NATL - 218.5 | EPAC - 97.9 | WPAC - 117.2 | NIO - 3.9
WPAC up to 127.762 due to Lan contributing 5.3025. Normal YTD is 230 or 55% of normal.
0 likes
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
- xtyphooncyclonex
- Category 5
- Posts: 3688
- Age: 22
- Joined: Sat Dec 08, 2012 9:07 am
- Location: Cebu City
- Contact:
Re: 2017 ACE: NATL - 218.5 | EPAC - 97.9 | WPAC - 117.2 | NIO - 3.9
euro6208 wrote:WPAC up to 127.762 due to Lan contributing 5.3025. Normal YTD is 230 or 55% of normal.
WPac is 10 units lower than that, actually....
116.1
http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/
0 likes
REMINDER: My opinions that I, or any other NON Pro-Met in this forum, are unofficial. Please do not take my opinions as an official forecast and warning. I am NOT a meteorologist. Following my forecasts blindly may lead to false alarm, danger and risk if official forecasts from agencies are ignored.
-
- Admin
- Posts: 19182
- Age: 60
- Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
- Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)
Re: 2017 ACE: NATL - 223.2 | EPAC - 97.9 | WPAC - 116.1 | NIO - 3.9
I've updated the numbers to match CSU for now. Not sure they are accurately tracking the current WPAC activity and I'm not sure where to look since Maue's site has been removed from Weatherbell.
Edit: New site is here: http://wx.graphics/tropical/ I'll update first post in case I forget again.
His numbers higher, any opinion on which ones to use?
WPAC: 128.887
NATL: 226.62
Edit: New site is here: http://wx.graphics/tropical/ I'll update first post in case I forget again.
His numbers higher, any opinion on which ones to use?
WPAC: 128.887
NATL: 226.62
2 likes
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
- 1900hurricane
- Category 5
- Posts: 6044
- Age: 33
- Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
- Location: Houston, TX
- Contact:
Re: 2017 ACE: NATL - 218.5 | EPAC - 97.9 | WPAC - 117.2 | NIO - 3.9
xtyphooncyclonex wrote:euro6208 wrote:WPAC up to 127.762 due to Lan contributing 5.3025. Normal YTD is 230 or 55% of normal.
WPac is 10 units lower than that, actually....
116.1
http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/
I have 127.0425 for the WPac. Maue's numbers run a little hot sometimes, but CSU's WPac numbers have been around 10 units too low for a little while now for some reason.
1 likes
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.
Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/
Opinions expressed are mine alone.
Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/
Re: 2017 ACE: NATL - 218.5 | EPAC - 97.9 | WPAC - 117.2 | NIO - 3.9
1900hurricane wrote:xtyphooncyclonex wrote:euro6208 wrote:WPAC up to 127.762 due to Lan contributing 5.3025. Normal YTD is 230 or 55% of normal.
WPac is 10 units lower than that, actually....
116.1
http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/
I have 127.0425 for the WPac. Maue's numbers run a little hot sometimes, but CSU's WPac numbers have been around 10 units too low for a little while now for some reason.
Your numbers and Maue's are almost spot on.
0 likes
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: 7cardinal, cajungal, ElectricStorm, Emmett_Brown, Google Adsense [Bot], LarryWx, ouragans and 93 guests