ATL: OPHELIA - Extratropical - Discussion

[Sciencerocks]

AL, 17, 2017101600, , BEST, 0, 479N, 131W, 70, 969, HU, 64, NEQ, 30, 60, 60, 30, 1012, 300, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, OPHELIA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 036,

Remains a hurricane!

[CrazyC83]

I'd say it is still tropical, or at least a hybrid system...it doesn't look like the frontal structure has reached the core yet. Not unlike Sandy on the morning of October 29, 2012 (well before landfall).

It might make it to Ireland intact. I'd guess the pressure is quite a bit lower (somewhere in the low to mid 950s) but there is nothing to prove such.

[supercane4867]

SAB has issued tropical bulletin for 00z as well.

TXNT23 KNES 160027
TCSNTL

A. 17L (OPHELIA)

B. 16/0000Z

C. 48.0N

D. 13.8W

E. THREE/MET-10

F. T3.0/4.0/W1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED BY 4/10 BANDING ON A LOG-10
SCALE. DT=2.5 MET=4.0 PT=3.5. FT IS BASED ON CONSTRAINTS LIMITING CHANGE
IN FT TO 1.5 OVER 12 HOURS.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...FISHER

[CrazyC83]

SAB has issued tropical bulletin for 00z as well.

TXNT23 KNES 160027
TCSNTL

A. 17L (OPHELIA)

B. 16/0000Z

C. 48.0N

D. 13.8W

E. THREE/MET-10

F. T3.0/4.0/W1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED BY 4/10 BANDING ON A LOG-10
SCALE. DT=2.5 MET=4.0 PT=3.5. FT IS BASED ON CONSTRAINTS LIMITING CHANGE
IN FT TO 1.5 OVER 12 HOURS.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...FISHER

I wonder...if NHC does not kill it off at 11...we might get a LANDFALL advisory since it would be less than 6 hours away most likely.

[AJC3]

I wonder...if NHC does not kill it off at 11...we might get a LANDFALL advisory since it would be less than 6 hours away most likely.

Not a chance, XTT is complete. But, boy this is "dang purty" XTC.

AL, 17, 2017101600, , BEST, 0, 476N, 134W, 70, 969, EX,

[CrazyC83]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

If our standards were applied, here is how I think the warnings would look:

Hurricane Warning

* Galway to Rosslare Harbour (W/S coasts of Ireland)

Hurricane Watch

* Killala to Galway (NW coast of Ireland)
* Rosslare Harbour to Whitehead (E coast of Ireland and Northern Ireland)
* Isle of Man

Tropical Storm Warning

* Remainder of Ireland and Northern Ireland not under Hurricane Warning
* Isle of Man
* Isles of Scilly
* Plymouth to Gooseham (SW England)
* Swansea to Sunderland (Wales, NW England, Scotland and NE England, around the entire coast)
* Orkney, Shetland and Eilean Siar

[WeatherGuesser]

Too bad RAF isn't set up to do Recon.

[CrazyC83]

Tough decisions for the NHC. If they keep advisories going, they would be taking it basically right up to landfall (it will probably make landfall around or before 5 am). It seems to be a hybrid storm now...doesn't look like a frontal core, with an eye and some deep convection, but with a large non-tropical envelope.

[AdamFirst]

Crazy that this is still tropical that far north.

[CrazyC83]

Crazy that this is still tropical that far north.

Farthest north I have seen anything tropical is about 52°N, but much farther west.

[MrStormX]

At this rate Ophelia is going to go off the map on the NHC homepage.

[CrazyC83]

At this rate Ophelia is going to go off the map on the NHC homepage.

If kept as a hurricane at 11, they will need to move the map or put an arrow.

[AJC3]

Not really a tough decision at all. What's left of the central convection is well embedded in the baroclinic leaf. It would have been pointless now (and more importantly, disadvantageous) to distinguish the rapidly shrinking area of cold top convection from the large XTC in which this small area is embedded.

[Sciencerocks]

The extratropical cyclone is looking kind of like a hurricane now. Sandy British style!

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MS ... /index.htm

[WeatherGuesser]

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Ophelia Advisory Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
1100 PM AST Sun Oct 15 2017

...OPHELIA NOW POST-TROPICAL BUT STILL EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG
WINDS TO IRELAND AND THE UNITED KINGDOM ON MONDAY...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY FROM NHC...

[HurricaneRyan]

Could Ophelia still be retired if it pulls a Sandy?

[CrazyC83]

Could Ophelia still be retired if it pulls a Sandy?

Yes, but someone would have to make the case. The UK is on the committee for Bermuda, while Ireland is not part of RA IV.

[AJC3]

Could Ophelia still be retired if it pulls a Sandy?

Don't see it happening. Technically, Ireland (or any part of the European mainland) isn't in RSMC Region I, and I'm petty sure there is no precedent for a request of this type ever having occurred, or perhaps even considered.

And in the case of a storm causing significant damage or loss of life in the Azores, which lie at the eastern edge of Region I, I don't know that Portugal could consider requesting retirement of a name, since they aren't a member of RA IV (for that matter, neither is Cabo Verde).

[AdamFirst]

From the Irish Meteorological Service

A STATUS RED WARNING IS IN OPERATION COUNTRYWIDE FOR TODAY.

Today will be stormy with spells of heavy rain and widespread gales. Winds mainly from the southeast during the morning will give some severe and damaging gusts, before veering southwest later. Top temperatures of 15 to 18 degrees. Some violent gusts between 120 (75) and 140 (87~) km/h (MPH), and storm surges near coasts may give local flooding.

[Whiskerbarb]

Latest updates from the UK at 06-45 am BST show ex Hurricane Ophelia approx 130 miles SW of Southern Ireland traveling at 45 mph on a NNE track with the whole of the country on storm alert with many schools totally shutdown. Air traffic,trains and ferris crossings to mainland UK all on stand by or cancelled according to BBC news. The current alert is Red with wind forecasts of around 70-80 mph with potential gusting too 90mph which could well make it one of the most powerful storms to hit Ireland for 50 years before it sweeps across the whole of Ireland heading NE towards Northern Scotland later tonight.f

Fingers crossed no one get injured.