2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[Alyono]

12z GFS also spins up an organized TS just south of Jamaica on Nov. 1st.

It also has a CV-like system in November

[SFLcane]

I'd like to here 57's take on this..he did state any potential threat even if development took place is to CA.

[TheStormExpert]

12z GFS also spins up an organized TS just south of Jamaica on Nov. 1st.

It also has a CV-like system in November

Wilma developed from a Cape Verde wave in mid-late October in the Central Caribbean so it’s not too unrealistic.

[Alyono]

12z GFS also spins up an organized TS just south of Jamaica on Nov. 1st.

It also has a CV-like system in November

Wilma developed from a Cape Verde wave in mid-late October in the Central Caribbean so it’s not too unrealistic.

at 45W?

[CyclonicFury]

It also has a CV-like system in November

Wilma developed from a Cape Verde wave in mid-late October in the Central Caribbean so it’s not too unrealistic.

at 45W?

Didn't Tomas 2010 develop from a CV wave in late October around 50-55W?

[TheStormExpert]

It also has a CV-like system in November

Wilma developed from a Cape Verde wave in mid-late October in the Central Caribbean so it’s not too unrealistic.

at 45W?

Didn’t see that one. That one seems unrealistic.

[LarryWx]

Well, it isn't at the level of the pretty strong signal of the Happy Hour (18Z) GEFS from yesterday and one wouldn't expect that this far in advance. However, there is a decent signal on the 12Z GEFS with about half its members forming a TS+ and 2 with a H with W Caribbean geneses mainly 10/24-28. There are 2 direct hits on W FL (10/28, 30), 1 indirect on FL Keys/S fL(10/30), 1 about to hit SW FL 11/1, and a couple still lurking at the end of the run in a potentially threatening position. Another member hits TX 10/29.

I expect today's Happy Hour GEFS to be active.

[joey]

i know its the cmc but just to entertain you

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=428

[WeatherEmperor]

12z ECMWF at long range




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[TheStormExpert]

Should miss Florida with that kind of trough if it were to develop more. I mentioned in the Florida Weather thread that there maybe a pattern change on the horizon favoring troughiness across the Eastern U.S. with the NAO/AO looking to negative within the next 2 weeks along with the PNA going positive. Would likely put an end to the record deadly and dangerous 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season for at least the continental U.S. if this comes true. Still can't rule out an Otto like storm into Central America next month just yet.

[LarryWx]

12Z EPS: Similar to the 0Z EPS, the signal among the 50 members is only modest vs the more active 12Z GEFS. It has 5 TS+ and 2 Hs. Genesis of these 5 (mainly in W Caribbean or E GOM) between 10/25 and 10/30. One hits W FL 10/27 and then goes up the SE coast 10/28. Another is near SE FL 10/30 and then affects further up the SE coast 10/31. Two head well E of FL. The last one moves very slowly N in the NW Caribbean at the run's end. Next up: Happy Hour GFS!

[gatorcane]

Happy Hour GFS all over it but a strong cold front looks to keep it south of Florida? At least this run...

About time GFS recognizes there is no El Niño and finally it doesn’t have a trillion vorticies.

[blp]

18z GFS Happy Hour run living up to its reputation. Though I think it had a little too much to drink.

[CrazyC83]

18z GFS Happy Hour run living up to its reputation. Though I think it had a little too much to drink.

Tries to pull a Sandy there but deflected...

[WeatherEmperor]

Alyono, should we raise the BS flag on this run??




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[MetroMike]

Alyono, should we raise the BS flag on this run??




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If its in concurrent runs no, look at any trends that have been rare with the GFS anyhow.

[gatorcane]

Most bullish GEFS yet:

[LarryWx]

Most bullish GEFS yet:

Yep, for those who want to see modeled action, the 18Z GEFS once more did not disappoint as it went batshoot crazy!This run is even more active than yesterday's Happy Hour GEFS, which itself had been the most active by far!

Out of 20 members, I counted a whopping 12 Hs. Most members have a TS+. This run is reminiscent of the GEFS/EPS runs leading up to Nate that had numerous members hitting FL with a TC during 10/7-10. It turned out that the 10/7-10 timeframe was dead on but Nate went ~400 miles west of the consensus of these FL pen. hitting members.

This run has member geneses mainly within 10/25-8. One H hits W FL 10/28, another hits Keys/S FL 10/29, and a 3rd one hits Keys/SW FL 10/31 before then hitting the Panhandle 11/1. In addition, there are FIVE Hs at the end of the run on 11/1 in the NW Caribbean moving in a direction that could later lead to a FL hit.

The only thing keeping me from considering this as a very strong signal is that it is an 18Z GEFS run, which was the most active by a good margin around Nate's time and is doing it again. Especially when this far out, the predictable pattern is for 18Z to be the most active, 6Z least active, and 0Z/12Z in between. In retrospect, those early 18Z GEFS runs had the right idea after all. Will this be the case again?

I think I need a drink after this run!

[blp]

12z FIM is quite similar to the 18z run of the GFS but stays a little bit south of Florida.

So we got the GFS, FIM, NASA, CMC on board and the Euro hinting.

[Alyono]

Alyono, should we raise the BS flag on this run??




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Not sure. It's more legit than the BS it was spewing of an EPAC storm