ATL: OPHELIA - Extratropical - Discussion

[galaxy401]

There are major wildfires going on in Portugal and apparently the fires are taking advantage of the winds from Ophelia. Gotten bad over there.

[Kazmit]

Damage looks worse than I expected. Could this be yet another retirement candidate?

[CrazyC83]

Damage looks worse than I expected. Could this be yet another retirement candidate?

Perhaps? I'm thinking this ends up several billion dollars (USD equivalent).

[Whiskerbarb]

Very stormy night at the moment here in the East of England. Currently 50-60 mph winds Gusting to 70 mph blowing over anything that's not tied down. Hopefully no more injuries or worse.

[CrazyC83]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Based on all the data I have seen, here is what I would set (UNOFFICIAL) as the BT for Ophelia:

AL172017, OPHELIA, 31,
20171009, 0000, , TS, 30.5N, 40.1W, 35, 1006,
20171009, 0600, , TS, 30.9N, 40.0W, 35, 1006,
20171009, 1200, , TS, 31.3N, 39.9W, 40, 1004,
20171009, 1800, , TS, 31.7N, 39.6W, 40, 1003,
20171010, 0000, , TS, 32.0N, 39.1W, 40, 1002,
20171010, 0600, , TS, 31.9N, 38.8W, 40, 1002,
20171010, 1200, , TS, 31.6N, 38.5W, 40, 1002,
20171010, 1800, , TS, 31.3N, 38.2W, 45, 1000,
20171011, 0000, , TS, 30.9N, 37.8W, 45, 999,
20171011, 0600, , TS, 30.4N, 37.2W, 50, 996,
20171011, 1200, , TS, 30.0N, 36.7W, 50, 996,
20171011, 1800, , TS, 29.8N, 36.2W, 55, 993,
20171012, 0000, , HU, 29.9N, 35.9W, 65, 985,
20171012, 0600, , HU, 30.1N, 35.7W, 70, 982,
20171012, 1200, , HU, 30.3N, 35.6W, 80, 974,
20171012, 1800, , HU, 30.5N, 35.5W, 85, 969,
20171013, 0000, , HU, 30.5N, 35.1W, 85, 969,
20171013, 0600, , HU, 30.9N, 34.4W, 80, 973,
20171013, 1200, , HU, 31.4N, 33.3W, 75, 975,
20171013, 1800, , HU, 31.9N, 32.5W, 80, 972,
20171014, 0000, , HU, 32.6N, 31.5W, 85, 968,
20171014, 0600, , HU, 33.4N, 29.7W, 95, 961,
20171014, 1200, , HU, 34.2N, 27.7W, 105, 952,
20171014, 1800, , HU, 35.3N, 25.1W, 110, 950, Maximum wind and minimum pressure
20171015, 0000, , HU, 36.3N, 22.7W, 100, 954,
20171015, 0600, , HU, 38.0N, 19.7W, 90, 957,
20171015, 1200, , HU, 40.1N, 16.9W, 85, 959,
20171015, 1800, , HU, 43.1N, 14.5W, 80, 958,
20171016, 0000, , HU, 47.8N, 13.3W, 80, 954,
20171016, 0300, S, EX, 49.0N, 13.1W, 80, 952, Became extratropical
20171016, 0600, , EX, 49.9N, 12.7W, 75, 952,
20171016, 1200, , EX, 52.1N, 10.8W, 70, 954,
20171016, 1600, L, EX, 53.4N, 9.9W, 65, 958, Landfall - Roundstone, Galway (as extratropical cyclone)
20171016, 1800, , EX, 53.9N, 9.2W, 65, 961,
20171017, 0000, , EX, 56.4N, 6.5W, 55, 972,

A few notes:

* Until the eyewall was well established, the intensities are lower than Dvorak suggests due to the fact ASCAT passes were running low.
* The peak intensity - 110 kt - is based on a blend of several analyses showing T5.5 to T6.0, and the ADT was around T5.9 at the time.
* Extratropical transition is placed at 0300Z October 16, which is not at synoptic time, as it still had deep convection and a weak eye at 0000Z but it was gone in the next couple hours.
* The 959 pressure at Valentia was likely a bit east of the true center - at the time it was just offshore from what I could analyze (so the pressure at 1200Z was likely a bit lower, I analyzed it at 954).

[weathaguyry]

Hmm, that would be a good question if this would get retired or not, because it did have significant impact, but it was ET and outside the NHC forecasting zone, so I would think not.

[CrazyC83]

Hmm, that would be a good question if this would get retired or not, because it did have significant impact, but it was ET and outside the NHC forecasting zone, so I would think not.

The big case against retirement is that the main impact was to a country that isn't even part of RA IV and doesn't sit on the committee.

[Buck]

Hmm, that would be a good question if this would get retired or not, because it did have significant impact, but it was ET and outside the NHC forecasting zone, so I would think not.

The big case against retirement is that the main impact was to a country that isn't even part of RA IV and doesn't sit on the committee.

Agreed... maybe this signals the opportunity for the WMO to add some 'outside members' to the committee... Ireland, Portugal, Spain, Cabo Verde, etc. for when special circumstances arrive such as this.

[abajan]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service. ...

You do know this is no longer required with any posts, right? The rule has been changed for several months now.

[CrazyC83]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service. ...

You do know this is no longer required with any posts, right? The rule has been changed for several months now.

I still do it as courtesy.

[Vince_and_Grace_fan]

I made satellite animations from Ophelia:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QeOV4ERPvPY

[abajan]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service. ...

You do know this is no longer required with any posts, right? The rule has been changed for several months now.

I still do it as courtesy.

Okay, fair enough. Just wanted to be sure you knew of the change.