2017 EPAC Season
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- Tropical Storm
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season
It looks like the second part of this surge might end up with HU Pilar, TS Ramon, TS Walaka and HU Selma. Selma might and may be the one who will make a run as a October Cat. 4 (or high-end Cat. 3) major (continuing the streak of Paul, Raymond, Olaf, Simon and Seymour). Though Todd might make at it too.
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- Yellow Evan
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season
A broad area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles
east-southeast of Acapulco near the coast of Mexico is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Land interaction should
limit development of this system during the next day or two, but
a tropical depression will likely form over the weekend when the
system moves farther offshore. Regardless of tropical cyclone
formation, heavy rains are expected over portions of southern
Mexico during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
east-southeast of Acapulco near the coast of Mexico is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Land interaction should
limit development of this system during the next day or two, but
a tropical depression will likely form over the weekend when the
system moves farther offshore. Regardless of tropical cyclone
formation, heavy rains are expected over portions of southern
Mexico during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
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- Kingarabian
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season
We normally don't see this in September. Steering flow shifts from east-> west to west -> east due to sweeping troughs across the northern Pacific:
Going to be hard to muster any decent ACE if this continues and materializes.
Going to be hard to muster any decent ACE if this continues and materializes.
Last edited by Kingarabian on Thu Sep 21, 2017 2:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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RIP Kobe Bryant
- Yellow Evan
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 210512
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed Sep 20 2017
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a broad area of low
pressure located just offshore of the southwest coast of Mexico
has increased, but remains disorganized. Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form in two to three days as the system
moves slowly toward the west-northwest. Regardless of tropical
cyclone formation, heavy rains are expected over portions of
southern Mexico during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
$$
Forecaster Zelinsk
ABPZ20 KNHC 210512
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed Sep 20 2017
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a broad area of low
pressure located just offshore of the southwest coast of Mexico
has increased, but remains disorganized. Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form in two to three days as the system
moves slowly toward the west-northwest. Regardless of tropical
cyclone formation, heavy rains are expected over portions of
southern Mexico during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
$$
Forecaster Zelinsk
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season
Yeah the GFS has a 916 mb hurricane off the coast of Mexico. It has one more Major right after.
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
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NWS for the Western Pacific
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season
The GFS has had phantom storms form in the EPAC just west of C.A. on its med to long range forecast for the past couple of months, it has been 80-90% wrong.
Even the Euro has been forecasting phantom storms in in this area.
Even the Euro has been forecasting phantom storms in in this area.
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season
GFS has been very very persistent with this. It has it hitting Mexico...Well let's see...
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
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NWS for the Western Pacific
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season
The EPAC is dead?
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season
Has the CPHC issued any advisories this season? I feel like they haven't, but I can't quite recall.
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Floyd 1999 · Irene 2011 · Sandy 2012
Re: 2017 EPAC Season
GFS has a long tracking hurricane originating south of Mexico.
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
- Kingarabian
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season
euro6208 wrote:GFS has a long tracking hurricane originating south of Mexico.
Euro shows something of that nature as well. Could be another ghost though.
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- Kingarabian
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season
Iune wrote:Has the CPHC issued any advisories this season? I feel like they haven't, but I can't quite recall.
Fernanda for like a couple of advisories.
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season
For the first year since 2014 the EPAC looks to finish below the annual ACE. July was the hot month then was shut down since. Storms struggled to survive once they left the eastern basin.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- Kingarabian
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- Posts: 15461
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Re: 2017 EPAC Season
Ntxw wrote:For the first year since 2014 the EPAC looks to finish below the annual ACE. July was the hot month then was shut down since. Storms struggled to survive once they left the eastern basin.
Yeah. Looks like ENSO has a strong and direct influence on EPAC activity than previously thought.
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