2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
- TheStormExpert
- Category 5
- Posts: 8487
- Age: 30
- Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
- Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL
Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
blp wrote:TheStormExpert wrote:Alyono wrote:
once we get closer to formation
What a HUGE bust this will possibly be for the GFS & Euro. When was the last time the less reliable global models outdone the two big boys?
I think what is going to bust is the less reliable models. They are too fast with development. You already see the CMC and NAVGEM backing down. This one is going to take time to develop.
Also means to take any track and intensity with an extra HUGE grain of salt for now.
0 likes
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.
- toad strangler
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 4178
- Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:09 pm
- Location: Earth
- Contact:
Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
gatorcane wrote:12Z UKMET going with development:
Verbatim that Ukie look has November climo all over it. NE over central Cuba and OTS
1 likes
Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
gatorcane wrote:12Z UKMET going with development:
[img]https://s1.postimg.org/1wizhyq1y7/ukm2.2017102612.168.lant.troplant.prp.fcst.gentracker.png[/]
Yep and in the right area. Also looks to have some EPAC development but weaker than the WCAR.
0 likes
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
blp wrote:TheStormExpert wrote:Alyono wrote:
once we get closer to formation
What a HUGE bust this will possibly be for the GFS & Euro. When was the last time the less reliable global models outdone the two big boys?
I think what is going to bust is the less reliable models. They are too fast with development. You already see the CMC and NAVGEM backing down. This one is going to take time to develop.
what has a higher chance of busting are the modelologists
The models are very good, but should be a starting point. Cumulus parameterization remains a major issue in the models, which will make them highly suspect in genesis cases like this. We just saw it 2 weeks ago with Nate
5 likes
Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Alyono wrote:blp wrote:TheStormExpert wrote:What a HUGE bust this will possibly be for the GFS & Euro. When was the last time the less reliable global models outdone the two big boys?
I think what is going to bust is the less reliable models. They are too fast with development. You already see the CMC and NAVGEM backing down. This one is going to take time to develop.
what has a higher chance of busting are the modelologists
The models are very good, but should be a starting point. Cumulus parameterization remains a major issue in the models, which will make them highly suspect in genesis cases like this. We just saw it 2 weeks ago with Nate
I guess the resonable thing is to look at the ensembles.
0 likes
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- gatorcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 23499
- Age: 46
- Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
- Location: Boca Raton, FL
Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
The Happy Hour GEFS remains on Caribbean side with many members showing development:
0 likes
- toad strangler
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 4178
- Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:09 pm
- Location: Earth
- Contact:
Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
18z GFS OP definitely took steps to W Caribbean and ensembles have been there all along
0 likes
- gatorcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 23499
- Age: 46
- Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
- Location: Boca Raton, FL
Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
And in the very long-range there are a few ensembles showing hurricanes into South Florida or vicinity of:
0 likes
Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
gatorcane wrote:And in the very long-range there are a few ensembles showing hurricanes into South Florida or vicinity of:
And cmc has been showing this for a few days no too watching
0 likes
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 4806
- Age: 40
- Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:54 pm
- Location: South Florida
Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
00z Canadian very persistant
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
0 likes
- gatorcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 23499
- Age: 46
- Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
- Location: Boca Raton, FL
Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Euro now showing a 1005mb low in the NW Caribbean moving NW and UKMET with development also showing a system heading slowly north
0 likes
- toad strangler
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 4178
- Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:09 pm
- Location: Earth
- Contact:
Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
6z GFS tried to pop a L in the SW Caribbean at about the same time the 0z Euro does (240 hours) but then quickly shifts development back to the EPAC shortly thereafter
0 likes
Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Gator, very significant timing differences between the UKMET and ECM however. UK seems to align with canadian and Navgem with Euro the latest in development. GFS seems to be somewhere inbetween those two camps.
0 likes
- TheStormExpert
- Category 5
- Posts: 8487
- Age: 30
- Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
- Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL
Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
The latest 06z GFS and 00z Euro are now starting to show a consensus of something brewing in the NW Caribbean around 240hrs. (10 days). From there the 06z GFS moves it into Belize due to building high pressure to its north while if the 00z Euro went further it would likely have it on a general north heading.
0 likes
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.
- gatorcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 23499
- Age: 46
- Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
- Location: Boca Raton, FL
Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
06z GEFS. Positioning is no bueno for Florida particularly Southern Florida:
0 likes
- SFLcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 9627
- Age: 46
- Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
- Location: Lake Worth Florida
Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Probability from EPS is up to 70% for a TD to form in the Western Caribbean next week.
0 likes
- TheStormExpert
- Category 5
- Posts: 8487
- Age: 30
- Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
- Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL
Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
0 likes
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.
- SFLcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 9627
- Age: 46
- Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
- Location: Lake Worth Florida
Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Overnight CMC with 2 Florida landfalls lol..lets hope its wrong as it usually is.
[i mg]https://i.imgur.com/bJJwCJp.png[/img]
[i mg]https://i.imgur.com/gzYBVSS.png[/img]
[i mg]https://i.imgur.com/bJJwCJp.png[/img]
[i mg]https://i.imgur.com/gzYBVSS.png[/img]
Last edited by tolakram on Fri Oct 20, 2017 11:57 am, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: removed images, weatherbell?
Reason: removed images, weatherbell?
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: Christiana, Cpv17, cvalkan4, Google Adsense [Bot], Ivanhater, JayTX, jgh, kevin, randge, South Texas Storms, Sps123 and 88 guests