Disturbed weather in western Caribbean (Is Invest 93L)
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- Hurricaneman
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Disturbed weather in western Caribbean (Is Invest 93L)
Looks quite good on satellite right now and most of the models develop something and looking at the steering Cuba, Central America and possibly Florida should keep a close eye on this
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Re: Disturbed weather in western caribbean
GFS may be mishandling the situation beyond 5-7 days. Seems though per the latest GFS and Euro that chances this moves inland through Central America and the Yucatán are increasing.
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- CyclonicFury
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Re: Disturbed weather in western caribbean
TheStormExpert wrote:GFS may be mishandling the situation beyond 5-7 days. Seems though per the latest GFS and Euro that chances this moves inland through Central America and the Yucatán are increasing.
It was just one Euro run, will be interesting to see the 12z to see if it was just one run or a trend.
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NCSU B.S. in Meteorology Class of 2021. Tropical weather blogger at http://www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.
- gatorcane
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Re: Disturbed weather in western caribbean
Looks a little more formidable into Southern Florida on the 12Z GFS run, 180 hours below:


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Re: Disturbed weather in western caribbean
CyclonicFury wrote:TheStormExpert wrote:GFS may be mishandling the situation beyond 5-7 days. Seems though per the latest GFS and Euro that chances this moves inland through Central America and the Yucatán are increasing.
It was just one Euro run, will be interesting to see the 12z to see if it was just one run or a trend.
That’s what I’m waiting to see. The 12z Euro will prove if it was an off run or not.
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- gatorcane
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Re: Disturbed weather in western caribbean
The GFS has been showing the “small” Florida storm/low merging with a front for the past few days, nothing new here only it looks more organized on the 12Z run (slightly less shear)
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- gatorcane
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Re: Disturbed weather in western caribbean
The 12Z GFS ensembles are noticeably more bullish and more realistic on the possible scenario here (finally). Many ensembles develop a low in the SW Caribbean around hour 90 move it NW just through or just offshore NE Nicaragua/Honduras into the NW Caribbean west of Yucatan then turn it NE through Cuba and passing south of Florida.192hour position below (though 3 ensembles impact South Florida)


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- gatorcane
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Re: Disturbed weather in western caribbean
The area to watch will be the SW Caribbean around 4-5 days from now. The convection in the Western Caribbean now will likely move into Central America/Yucatan with no development. Thinking NHC will be circling the potential SW Caribbean area in the next day or two. We may just end up using this thread anyway as something looks likely to develop here eventually.
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Re: Disturbed weather in western caribbean
12z NAVGEM has a strong TS hit on South Florida

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- gatorcane
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Re: Disturbed weather in western caribbean
CMC shifted east and now in Bahamas but still showing development:


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Re: Disturbed weather in western caribbean
Light north winds reported on the coast Puerto Cabezas, Nicaruaga.
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Re: Disturbed weather in western caribbean
Still not quite invest worthy apparently.
Models said next week but in the same area as the current convection?
Models said next week but in the same area as the current convection?
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- gatorcane
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Re: Disturbed weather in western caribbean
12Z Euro now has a broad low in the Western Caribbean closer to the other models but slower and not as far north. Surprised it doesn’t develop it more. Only model that has this moving into Central America now is the GFS which is an outlier.


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Re:Disturbed weather in western caribbean
The Caribbean system is back on the 12z Euro

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Re: Disturbed weather in western caribbean
Is a good looking wave:
A tropical wave is in the western Caribbean with axis extending
from 20N80W to 09N79W, moving W at 20 kt. The wave is in a region
of low to moderate vertical wind shear. However, deep layer
moisture along with upper level divergence support scattered
heavy showers and tstms from 13N-20N between 75W-86W.
A tropical wave is in the western Caribbean with axis extending
from 20N80W to 09N79W, moving W at 20 kt. The wave is in a region
of low to moderate vertical wind shear. However, deep layer
moisture along with upper level divergence support scattered
heavy showers and tstms from 13N-20N between 75W-86W.
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hurricanelonny
Re: Disturbed weather in western caribbean
system should be MUCH stronger than the EC indicates since the EPAC cyclone is likely a convective feedback phantom
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