WPAC: LAN - Typhoon

[galaxy401]

Intensity debate aside, this could be a major threat for Tokyo. Probably won't be that strong when it makes landfall but this is a huge storm which means a very serious storm surge...

[tolakram]

SLIDER

Eye seems to be shrinking.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=himawari&sec=full_disk&x=9380&y=5534&z=4&im=18&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=16&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/921800083439607810




Ryan Maue ✔@RyanMaue
Super Typhoon Lan intensifying again w/smaller eye. T 7.0 should put it at Cat 5 140 knots https://weather.us/satellite/1342-e-267 ... html#play2 … from @WeatherdotUS
2:07 PM - Oct 21, 2017

[shah83]

Guys, is this not a rerun of Typhoon Ida from 1956? Pressure and winds not as strong, but still...

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

CIMSS ADT supports an intensity of 132kt 926mb. Recon found 135kt 925mb.

What was that about satellite estimates being poor again?

[Noctilucent]

Josh Morgerman of iCyclone is going to Japan!
 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/921779687994548226

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 212100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 25W (LAN) WARNING NR 26//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 25W (LAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 303 NM EAST
OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A SYMMETRIC EYEWALL SURROUNDING A 38NM ROUND EYE. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES EXCELLENT OUTFLOW, PARTICULARLY POLEWARD, WHICH
IS TAPPING INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES OVER JAPAN. A 211825Z
NOAA-19 89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER
THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD SURGE AND STRONG
CONVERGENT FLOW. AS A RESULT, THE 34-KNOT WIND RADII ARE EXTENSIVE
AS EVIDENCED BY SURFACE WIND OBSERVATIONS OVER THE RYUKYU ISLANDS
RANGING FROM 30 TO 45 KNOTS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT
135 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T6.5 (127
KNOTS) TO T7.0 (140 KNOTS). THE STY ESTIMATE WAS VALIDATED YESTERDAY
BY AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE DATA FROM JAPAN WITH MAXIMUM WINDS AND
MINIMUM SLP IN THE EYEWALL SUPPORTING AN INTENSITY OF 125 TO 130
KNOTS. STY 25W IS ACCELERATING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. THIS FORECAST REMAINS HIGHLY
CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS JTWC FORECASTS. WIND RADII HAVE BEEN
ADJUSTED PRECISELY BASED ON A DETAILED ANALYSIS OF THE 211237Z ASCAT
IMAGE (SUPPORTS UNUSUALLY SMALL 50- AND 64-KNOT WIND RADII) AS WELL
AS RYUKYU ISLAND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
B. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SOME EYE WOBBLE,
HOWEVER, STY 25W IS TRACKING GENERALLY POLEWARD TOWARD CENTRAL
JAPAN. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN STABLE AND REMARKABLY TIGHT
AGREEMENT WITH ONLY A 60-NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS OVER THE KANTO PLAIN
REGION NEAR TAU 24. STY LAN SHOULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH TAU 12
WITH SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING AFTER TAU 12 ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASED
INTERACTION WITH LAND AND THE STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE AS WELL
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM WILL COMPLETE EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION NEAR TAU 24 AS IT GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS
AND BEGINS TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD. STY 25W IS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN EXTENSIVE GALE-FORCE WINDS DUE TO THE VERY LARGE SIZE OF
THE SYSTEM, AND PROXIMITY OF COLD-SURGE WINDS AND GRADIENT WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER JAPAN.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/EarthUncutTV/status/921861655562092544

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/922019754201710592

[NotoSans]

http://www.nhk.or.jp/shutoken-news/2017 ... 02202.html

Third recon mission conducted by Japan reports central pressure of 923 hPa at around 10 JST (01 UTC).

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/922024401528291328

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 25W (LAN) WARNING NR 28//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 25W (LAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 293 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 22 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAKENED SYSTEM AS THE ONCE LARGE EYE FEATURE IS
NOW OBSCURED BY DENSE OVERCAST LAYER WHILE EXHIBITING FRONTAL
CHARACTERISTICS. HOWEVER, A 220441Z 89GHZ AMSR2 IMAGE SHOWS A
SYMMETRIC RING OF DEEP CONVECTION STILL MOSTLY INTACT WITH ONLY
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN EDGE ERODING AWAY, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 115 KNOTS
AND IS BASED ON AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T5.5 TO T7.0
(102 TO 140 KNOTS) AND A 220542Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 120 KNOTS. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE POINT SOURCE OVER TY 25W NOW DISRUPTED AS
IT INTERACTS WITH THE WESTERLIES. CURRENTLY TY 25W IS ACCELERATING
POLEWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. HOWEVER, WIND RADII ARE NOW ADJUSTED
TO REFLECT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RECENT ASCAT DATA.
B. TY 25W WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE ON A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK AS
IT INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC REGION FURTHER DETERIORATING.
HOWEVER WIND SPEEDS ARE STILL VERY HIGH AND ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
AT OR ABOVE TYPHOON STRENGTH AS IT TRANSITIONS INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
SYSTEM BY TAU 24. THE 34, 50, AND 64 KNOT WIND RADII ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LARGE AS IT MAKES THE TRANSITION. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN VERY CLOSE AGREEMENT, THUS LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO
THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[doomhaMwx]

3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. HOWEVER, WIND RADII ARE NOW ADJUSTED
TO REFLECT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RECENT ASCAT DATA.

Here's that ASCAT pass... wow!

[euro6208]

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/kal_tellefsen/status/922073467197034496

[wxman57]

Looks like Lan has weakened quickly over the past 12 hours. Dvorak down to 5.0 early this morning, but looks more like 4.0 now (or lower). JMA's current intensity of 85kts (10-min) may be a bit generous.

[doomhaMwx]

 https://twitter.com/UWCIMSS/status/922100363884363777

[doomhaMwx]

Inner structure continues to deteriorate...

[mrbagyo]

Automated bouys near Saipan and Guam recorded these wave heights earlier.

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/922142815525761024