Texas Fall 2017

[Ntxw]

FW has dipped their toes in, 38F on Sat morning and 39F for Sunday morning forecast for the airport

Fri and Sat in the 50s with gusty north winds...brrr

[bubba hotep]

It would be really nice if the modeled -EPO pattern is a dominant feature this winter. Many of us would take a 2013-2014 redux



November is likely to start with several seasonally modified cold surges. We've basically settled into the Pacific regime shift, with fronts becoming common, each colder than the previous. Such patterns are hard to change seasonally once they've become dominant, particularly with lengthening wavelengths.

The Weeklies suggest that this pattern has some staying power. My theory, it's always better to have cold and hope a disturbance times up right for snow vs. having disturbances and hoping to find some cold.

[CaptinCrunch]

Here is the "Long Term" discussion from FTW NWS this morning.

The cold front will sweep across the region Thursday night with
strong north winds accompanying it. No precipitation is expected
along the front due to a lack of moisture, but some light rain may
occur behind the front on Friday. Forecast soundings continue to
indicate a layer of mid level moisture moving across the region as
the base of the upper level trough moves into the Southern Plains
on Friday. However, the soundings indicate the layer of moisture
may be pretty thin, and the atmosphere capped above it. With dry
air in place below this layer, it will be difficult for
precipitation to reach the ground. Instead, we may see a mid level
deck of clouds with virga passing through during the day on
Friday.

Breezy winds behind the front will usher in cold Canadian air and
high temperatures on Friday and Saturday will be seasonably cool
in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Winds of 10-20 mph during the day on
Friday and Saturday will make it feel a little cooler than the
actual temperature. Overnight low temperatures both nights will
cool into the 30s across all of the region. Some locations in our
northwest Saturday morning may approach their first freeze of the
season, but the winds may stay up a little too high at 5-10 mph
for freezing temperatures to be realized. Even if temperatures do
not reach freezing, where winds become lighter and temperatures
drop into the lower to mid 30s, frost may occur. On Sunday
morning, a few locations in our northeast around Paris and Bonham
could drop to near freezing.

Zonal flow aloft will return early next week ahead of the next
upper level trough, and temperatures will steadily warm as a
result. We could finally see some better moisture return next week
allowing for some better rain chances with the next approaching
system. At this time, the outlook for Halloween shows the
potential for a pleasantly comfortable day with near normal
temperatures, but possibly some light rain.

I have a feeling the cold air will be a little more intrusive in NTX and the warm up for Monday and Tuesday won't be as much. Halloween normal temps are 73/52 which is currently the forecast, but I'm thinking a few degrees lower on both which will put this year below normal. Last year was tied 4th warmest Halloween @ 87/72 but I would love a 1993 Halloween @ 51/29

[Tireman4]

Here is the "Long Term" discussion from FTW NWS this morning.

The cold front will sweep across the region Thursday night with
strong north winds accompanying it. No precipitation is expected
along the front due to a lack of moisture, but some light rain may
occur behind the front on Friday. Forecast soundings continue to
indicate a layer of mid level moisture moving across the region as
the base of the upper level trough moves into the Southern Plains
on Friday. However, the soundings indicate the layer of moisture
may be pretty thin, and the atmosphere capped above it. With dry
air in place below this layer, it will be difficult for
precipitation to reach the ground. Instead, we may see a mid level
deck of clouds with virga passing through during the day on
Friday.

Breezy winds behind the front will usher in cold Canadian air and
high temperatures on Friday and Saturday will be seasonably cool
in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Winds of 10-20 mph during the day on
Friday and Saturday will make it feel a little cooler than the
actual temperature. Overnight low temperatures both nights will
cool into the 30s across all of the region. Some locations in our
northwest Saturday morning may approach their first freeze of the
season, but the winds may stay up a little too high at 5-10 mph
for freezing temperatures to be realized. Even if temperatures do
not reach freezing, where winds become lighter and temperatures
drop into the lower to mid 30s, frost may occur. On Sunday
morning, a few locations in our northeast around Paris and Bonham
could drop to near freezing.

Zonal flow aloft will return early next week ahead of the next
upper level trough, and temperatures will steadily warm as a
result. We could finally see some better moisture return next week
allowing for some better rain chances with the next approaching
system. At this time, the outlook for Halloween shows the
potential for a pleasantly comfortable day with near normal
temperatures, but possibly some light rain.

I have a feeling the cold air will be a little more intrusive in NTX and the warm up for Monday and Tuesday won't be as much. Halloween normal temps are 73/52 which is currently the forecast, but I'm thinking a few degrees lower on both which will put this year below normal. Last year was tied 4th warmest Halloween @ 87/72 but I would love a 1993 Halloween @ 51/29

Capn, I think you are right. I am not sure the warm up will be as much as they think.

[Tireman4]

00
FXUS64 KHGX 241128
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
628 AM CDT Tue Oct 24 2017

.AVIATION.../12Z TAF/
The main aviation concern will be the winds today as a cold front
has pushed through the area this morning. Winds have not mixed
down from the surface but KHGX VAD wind profiles show 40-50kt
winds 1000-2000ft AGL. Winds will take a couple of hours to mix to
the surface so will have low level wind shear in TAFs until
mixing occurs around 14Z. After that wind gusts around 25kts will
be common an perhaps near 30kts for KGLS. Winds will decouple
tonight as high pressure begins to move over the area.

Overpeck

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM CDT Tue Oct 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The Autumn weather pattern will continue for the next several days
across Southeast Texas. Main issues include a cold front moving
across the area today and another cold front on Friday. Both
fronts will bring unseasonably cool weather conditions across all
of the forecast area.

Items of concern regarding today`s cold front include breezy and
dry conditions following the frontal passage. These will elevate
fire weather conditions across the area (see the fire weather
section below for more details). Temperatures following the front
will fall into the 40s and 50s tonight and early Tuesday morning.

After another cool, dry, but not as breezy day on Wednesday,
onshore winds will begin to return Gulf moisture on Thursday. The
second cold front will arrive Friday. There has been some
differences in model precipitation output. Current thinking is
that isentropic lift ahead of the front should aid in the
development of isolated to scattered showers with best chances
along the front and over the southeastern half of the forecast
area. The main impact from the front will be after the frontal
passage over the weekend. Early morning low temperatures will
likely fall into the mid and upper 30s over the far inland areas
Saturday and Sunday morning with the coldest morning likely Sunday
morning. As of now, lowest temperatures could be near 34 or 35
degrees over locations north of a line from Burleson to Huntsville
to Cleveland. Could see some upper 30s as far south as Liberty
County, northern Harris County, and locations southwest of metro
Houston along the inland portions of the coastal counties.

As the high pressure area moves northeast of the forecast area, a
warming trend is expected starting on Monday. This should be aided
by southwesterly winds at the surface Sunday night and onshore
winds by late Monday.

40

MARINE...
Winds should increase towards sunrise this morning as a cold front
pushes through the area. Winds are expected to reach advisory levels
over the Gulf this morning. The advisory begins a few hours before
the threshold is forecast to be met to cover the period of SCEC-
level wind. The advisory carries through Wednesday morning - the 0-
20 nm zones may see a bit of a lull in the afternoon, but with the
expectation that winds will exceed the advisory threshold again
tonight. The advisory may need to be extended through Wednesday
morning.

Look for winds to diminish Wednesday as another high pressure center
moves across the region. As that high moves off to the east, onshore
flow should return on Thursday. The next front is expected to arrive
Friday, and looks strong enough to bring another period of strong,
gusty winds. This front may be stronger than the previous front with
the potential for wind gusts to gale force. Small craft advisories
may be needed Friday through Saturday.

Overpeck

FIRE WEATHER...
A front will continue to push through the area this morning and
drier air behind it will re-enforce the already drier cooler airmass
in place. RH levels should drop to around 20 to 25 percent this
afternoon. The area is fortunate to have generally wetter than
normal fuels due to recent rain. Outside of the 10 hour fuels, which
are more receptive to changes in RH, rain from Sunday morning will
help mitigate conditions. Due to the higher fuel moisture, we will
decide against going with a red flag warning. However, those with
more grassy fuels should be aware of the dry air and winds expected,
and understand that fire may spread more rapidly than they might
expect given the recent rain. Should RH drop lower than forecast or
winds become stronger, we will need to issue a red flag warning
today.

Low humidity will persist Wednesday and Thursday. Winds will be
lower on Wednesday as high pressure moves over across SE Texas.
Winds increase Thursday ahead of the front and enough moisture will
return for some rain chances ahead of the next front on Friday.

Overpeck

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 77 43 76 48 79 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 77 46 76 51 80 / 0 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 77 56 73 63 80 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for the
following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM CDT Wednesday for the following
zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship
Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
Freeport out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda
Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...40
Aviation/Marine...39

[bubba hotep]

00z Euro is torching DFW for Halloween and the days afterward, truly scary!

[starsfan65]

00z Euro is torching DFW for Halloween and the days afterward, truly scary!

What do you mean torching?

[bubba hotep]

00z Euro is torching DFW for Halloween and the days afterward, truly scary!

What do you mean torching?

00z was mid to upper 80s

[starsfan65]

00z Euro is torching DFW for Halloween and the days afterward, truly scary!

What do you mean torching?

00z was mid to upper 80s

I hope it isn't that warm!!!

[Brent]

GFS has mid 70s then rain chances begin Halloween night with widespread rain and 70s after Halloween then cooler air on November 2nd/3rd

I don't see any signs of the cold sticking around soon... probably gonna continue to be ups and downs which means Halloween will likely be seasonal at best.

[CaptinCrunch]

Euro is out to lunch on that one. Don't see another record warm Halloween this year. If anything it will be right at the average mark, which is still good.

[Brent]

GFS mId 70s for Halloween then a cold front Halloween night and widespread cold rain in the 40s next Wednesday November 1st

Euro looks like low to mid 80s and no sign of a front or rain til the very end of the run (November 2nd)

[starsfan65]

GFS mId 70s for Halloween then a cold front Halloween night and widespread cold rain in the 40s next Wednesday November 1st

Euro looks like low to mid 80s and no sign of a front or rain til the very end of the run (November 2nd)

I like the GFS model!!

[Ralph's Weather]

I am hoping for a coolish Halloween, but it is looking like it may be the warm day ahead of another big Arctic front. I could see a high in the 80s and maybe diving temps that evening.

[Brent]

I am hoping for a coolish Halloween, but it is looking like it may be the warm day ahead of another big Arctic front. I could see a high in the 80s and maybe diving temps that evening.

I'm tending to agree I got a feeling halloween will be like yesterday or Thursday will be a warm windy day ahead of the front

[starsfan65]

I am hoping for a coolish Halloween, but it is looking like it may be the warm day ahead of another big Arctic front. I could see a high in the 80s and maybe diving temps that evening.

I'm tending to agree I got a feeling halloween will be like yesterday or Thursday will be a warm windy day ahead of the front

I hope we get some more rain with the front on Halloween night.

[Brent]

CMC had near 80 on Halloween and then a lot of rain after halloween to open November

[Brent]

0z GFS has some light rain breaking out on Halloween and DFW staying in the 60s

[starsfan65]

0z GFS has some light rain breaking out on Halloween and DFW staying in the 60s

I like that forecast!!

[Ntxw]

6z gfs blasts a front through halloween and keeps it cool all day. Talk about diverging with the Euro