Texas Fall 2017

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Ralph's Weather
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#561 Postby Ralph's Weather » Wed Oct 25, 2017 6:44 am

Ntxw wrote:6z gfs blasts a front through halloween and keeps it cool all day. Talk about diverging with the Euro

As we all know, with -EPO fronts err to the fast guidance in most cases. At this time frame Friday's front was progged for during the day. Halloween may start out warm but rain and falling temps are likely by evening if not all day. We have missed this type of regime during the last few winters so it is great to see it setting up early this cold season.
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#562 Postby srainhoutx » Wed Oct 25, 2017 7:11 am

Coldest morning of the Fall Season so far this morning in NW Harris County where temperatures have dropped to the mid 40's. Some slight moderation is expected for overnight temperatures until Friday when a shot of modified Arctic/Canadian Air arrives ushering in the coldest morning we have seen since last February. Current temperature guidance has areas along and N of HWY 105 flirting with near freezing temperatures early Sunday morning. A light frost may be possible just N and W of the Beltway as well, so it may be time to protect those plants sensitive to frost or possible freeze.
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#563 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Wed Oct 25, 2017 7:34 am

Our local mets are forecasting our first freeze for Saturday morning. This is for the city and with me living in the middle of nowhere with no concrete around we should pick up our first for the season.
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#564 Postby Ralph's Weather » Wed Oct 25, 2017 7:42 am

Noticed some frost on houses this morning. Looking forward to a possible freeze Sunday and maybe Saturday.
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#565 Postby CaptinCrunch » Wed Oct 25, 2017 8:01 am

Ralph's Weather wrote:Noticed some frost on houses this morning. Looking forward to a possible freeze Sunday and maybe Saturday.


There was a few frosty patches on the rooftops this morning at the house, nothing heavy but noticeable. :cold:
As for this weekend the local forecast has dropped Friday nigh/Saturday morning temp another couple of degrees for the DFW metro to upper 30's from the lower 40's. Halloween's forecast also dropped to 72/48 for now.
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#566 Postby Tireman4 » Wed Oct 25, 2017 8:45 am

CaptinCrunch wrote:
Ralph's Weather wrote:Noticed some frost on houses this morning. Looking forward to a possible freeze Sunday and maybe Saturday.


There was a few frosty patches on the rooftops this morning at the house, nothing heavy but noticeable. :cold:
As for this weekend the local forecast has dropped Friday nigh/Saturday morning temp another couple of degrees for the DFW metro to upper 30's from the lower 40's. Halloween's forecast also dropped to 72/48 for now.



For Houston...Halloween forecast as of now..I suspect this might drop..

TuesdayA 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 78.
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#567 Postby Brent » Wed Oct 25, 2017 10:27 am

The Euro was more like the GFS moving a front through early on Halloween and some light rain around in the evening with temperatures barely getting to 60 in DFW

Then it warms up into the 80s after Halloween

12z GFS has light rain and 50s on Halloween, a very winter-like day

In other news NBC 5 has a HIGH of 54 on Friday :froze: We didn't even have a low that cold til 2 weeks ago
Last edited by Brent on Wed Oct 25, 2017 11:38 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#568 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Wed Oct 25, 2017 11:22 am

Id love to have a cool rifle season opener for once. It gets old trying to hunt in 80 degree temps.
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#569 Postby Ralph's Weather » Wed Oct 25, 2017 1:01 pm

NWS Amarillo showing possibility of the first snow of the year in Texas tomorrow night across the western Panhandle.
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#570 Postby Brent » Wed Oct 25, 2017 1:36 pm

Euro looks to have caved towards a much cooler Halloween... highs in the mid/upper 50s in DFW and mid/upper 40s by evening with some light rain

The CMC Is now the warmest model for Halloween with highs around 70
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#571 Postby CaptinCrunch » Wed Oct 25, 2017 1:46 pm

This weekends cold snap is a result of the Polar high getting split by what use to be Super Typhoon Lan, sort of what happened with Nuri a couple of Novembers ago. current temps across Alaska range from mid 40's along the lower coast to teens in the central part of the state.
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#572 Postby CaptinCrunch » Wed Oct 25, 2017 1:49 pm

Brent wrote:Euro looks to have caved towards a much cooler Halloween... highs in the mid/upper 50s in DFW and mid/upper 40s by evening with some light rain

The CMC Is now the warmest model for Halloween with highs around 70


Crazy Euro model.... :lol: I knew it would come around to a more positive outlook :ggreen:
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#573 Postby Brent » Wed Oct 25, 2017 3:45 pm

Friday Partly sunny with occasional sprinkles. Breezy and much cooler. Temperatures steady around 50. North winds 20 to 25 mph

this forecast makes me feel cold :lol: :cold:

Some locations will
approach freezing during the pre-dawn hours both Saturday and
Sunday, so a combination of frost advisories and freeze warnings
may be required for parts of the forecast area this weekend.

A warm-up will ensue once again Sunday and Monday ahead of our
next front, which may bring a round of showers and possibly a few
storms Tuesday and next Wednesday. This of course may affect
Halloween festivities, so those with outdoor plans are urged to
keep up with the latest forecasts for your area.
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#574 Postby CaptinCrunch » Wed Oct 25, 2017 4:23 pm

Brent wrote:Friday Partly sunny with occasional sprinkles. Breezy and much cooler. Temperatures steady around 50. North winds 20 to 25 mph

this forecast makes me feel cold :lol: :cold:

Some locations will
approach freezing during the pre-dawn hours both Saturday and
Sunday, so a combination of frost advisories and freeze warnings
may be required for parts of the forecast area this weekend.

A warm-up will ensue once again Sunday and Monday ahead of our
next front, which may bring a round of showers and possibly a few
storms Tuesday and next Wednesday. This of course may affect
Halloween festivities, so those with outdoor plans are urged to
keep up with the latest forecasts for your area.


Halloween - A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 68.
Halloween Night - A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 51.

:hmm:
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#575 Postby South Texas Storms » Wed Oct 25, 2017 4:40 pm

It sure was chilly this morning. Houston Bush Airport (IAH) got down to 46F, which helped me to win my first contest at the office! Wxman57 tried to tell me it wouldn't happen and he would win, but thankfully that didn't happen. :D
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#576 Postby Brent » Wed Oct 25, 2017 5:21 pm

CaptinCrunch wrote:Halloween - A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 68.
Halloween Night - A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 51.

:hmm:


CBS 11 just had 60 for a high on Halloween

18z GFS has rain almost statewide Halloween Evening
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#577 Postby CaptinCrunch » Wed Oct 25, 2017 7:26 pm

Brent wrote:
CaptinCrunch wrote:Halloween - A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 68.
Halloween Night - A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 51.

:hmm:


CBS 11 just had 60 for a high on Halloween

18z GFS has rain almost statewide Halloween Evening


Aye, I saw Delkus had 64/48 for Halloween, but I think CBS11 is closer to what it will be like. Either way we are looking @ about 10 degrees below the normal daily average and possible rain. :ggreen:

This according to my experience of the Great Halloween Analogy would foretell a Cold/wet 2018 Winter :froze:

So we'll see what happens come the 31st. :?:
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#578 Postby starsfan65 » Wed Oct 25, 2017 7:55 pm

CaptinCrunch wrote:
Brent wrote:
CaptinCrunch wrote:Halloween - A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 68.
Halloween Night - A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 51.

:hmm:


CBS 11 just had 60 for a high on Halloween

18z GFS has rain almost statewide Halloween Evening


Aye, I saw Delkus had 64/48 for Halloween, but I think CBS11 is closer to what it will be like. Either way we are looking @ about 10 degrees below the normal daily average and possible rain. :ggreen:

This according to my experience of the Great Halloween Analogy would foretell a Cold/wet 2018 Winter :froze:

So we'll see what happens come the 31st. :?:
We need the rain badly!! I like it when it is a cool rain.
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#579 Postby aggiecutter » Wed Oct 25, 2017 10:45 pm

Todd Warren's(NBC meteorologist Shreveport) winter outlook. Above normal snowfall for the winter for NE Texas and SW Arkansas.

https://www.facebook.com/WarrenWeather/ ... 004650950/
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#580 Postby Ntxw » Thu Oct 26, 2017 6:18 am

Guidance is starting to converge. Chilly this weekend, and Halloween will be the coldest in awhile. 50s for highs will falling temps during the day, jackets for the trick or treaters. Some rain possible.
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