ATL: PHILIPPE - Models

[Blown Away]

06Z

06z Intensity... Moderate TS potential over next 48 hours...

[NDG]

GFS & HWRF show strongest winds to be E and south of COC with minimal impacts to south FL, windwise.

[gatorcane]

00Z ECMWF ensembles take this generally through South Florida on a SW to NE trajectory:

[joey]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... _atl_8.png

12z gfs

[NDG]

12z GFS is stronger than previous runs, as a warm core moderate to strong tropical storm as crosses the Bahamas Sunday morning.

[sunnyday]

When should it go to So Fl? What part of So Fl should be most affected?

[TheStormExpert]

When should it go to So Fl? What part of So Fl should be most affected?

It’s looking like it might miss S. FL to the south going through the Florida straits.

[joey]

When should it go to So Fl? What part of So Fl should be most affected?

It’s looking like it might miss S. FL to the south going through the Florida straits.

maybe not
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... _atl_8.png

[gatorcane]

slight north shift with 12Z GEFS:

[gatorcane]

12Z CMC ensembles shift slightly west. 0 to 48 hour animation below with many passing through South Florida and the Keys:

[NDG]

12z Euro is still not doing much with it, I am tossing it out the window.

[gatorcane]

12Z ECMWF ensembles animation. looks like 93L meets up with the cold front over or near South Florida/Keys:

[gatorcane]

Another slight west shift with the GFS because it looks to move 93L faster:

[gatorcane]

another west shift with the GFS ensembles:

[gatorcane]

18Z NAVGEM landfall in the Keys now:

[blp]

18z HWRF has a sizeable shift west and now right offshore. Another shift west like that it will be over Miami.

Now down 984mb.

[Frank2]

Hard to understand where the models are getting this data - considering the system is very poorly organized and shear already present over South Florida is forecast to increase ahead of the front.

[gatorcane]

Hard to understand where the models are getting this data - considering the system is very poorly organized and shear already present over South Florida is forecast to increase ahead of the front.

Because the models move the upper anticyclone NE in tandem with 93l. For example:

[joey]

models have this very close to south fl as this comes off cuba it could bounce right over remember what fay did when she bouced off cuba right to so fl so in watching mode here anything can happen

[gatorcane]

Uptick in in intensity on 00Z: