ATL: PHILIPPE - Remnants - Discussion

[sunnyday]

Any chance that all of these predicted inches of rain won’t get to S Fl until tomorrow? How far north in S Fl do you think the rain will go?

[AdamFirst]

Any chance that all of these predicted inches of rain won’t get to S Fl until tomorrow? How far north in S Fl do you think the rain will go?

This will be a rain event into central Florida on the east coast. The severe weather will be better focused the farther south you go.

[gatorcane]

Definite rotation on that Miami cell

[idaknowman]

Tornado warning for the next few minutes for the Sweetwater area.

[AdamFirst]

Fortunately that cell is moving out of the urban development area towards the water retention/barrier swamps (little to no population). Anyone driving on Krome Avenue better be careful though.

[floridasun78]

keywest no rain fantasy fest going on now

[CyclonicFury]

Likely to see TS Philippe at 5pm

AL, 18, 2017102818, , BEST, 0, 218N, 824W, 35, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 90, 0, 0, 1010, 250, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, EIGHTEEN, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 039,

[AutoPenalti]

Started to rain here in Broward, moderate to heavy at times.

[Aric Dunn]

They need to be looking off the nw coast of cuba wsw of Key west. Center reforming

[Aric Dunn]

With that said.. that is a good deal farther north and a track across florida and merging with front farther west and deepening bringing the stronger winds and surge farther west over New England.

Also center is a little farther north than that.. pretty much due west of key west

[NDG]

I cannot find any signs of the LLC that had formed this morning south of the Isle of Pines, as if a bigger circulation is taking over again, elongated west of Key West to the south towards Cuba. GFS might have been right after all.




Next squall line is getting ready to move north towards Miami metro area.

[NDG]

Key West now reporting wind gusting to 37 mph.

Conditions at: KEYW observed 28 October 2017 19:53 UTC
Temperature: 26.1°C (79°F)
Dewpoint: 22.2°C (72°F) [RH = 79%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.69 inches Hg (1005.5 mb)
[Sea-level pressure: 1005.3 mb]
Winds: from the SSE (150 degrees) at 28 MPH (24 knots; 12.5 m/s)
gusting to 37 MPH (32 knots; 16.6 m/s)
Visibility: 10 or more miles (16+ km)
Ceiling: 4000 feet AGL
Clouds: few clouds at 2600 feet AGL
broken clouds at 4000 feet AGL
broken clouds at 5000 feet AGL

[NDG]

Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182017
500 PM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017

Satellite images, radar data from Cuba and Key West, and surface
observations indicate the depression has turned northward over the
past few hours, and has also strengthened into a tropical storm.
The initial intensity of 35 kt is based on a surface observation of
35 kt in a brief squall from Grand Cayman at 1444Z, a recent AMSU
estimate of 37 kt, and average Key West Doppler radar velocities of
40 kt between 10,000-12,000 ft just north of the Cuban coast; the
latter data equates to an approximate surface wind speed of 36 kt.

The initial motion estimate is now 355/25 kt based on radar data and
high-resolution GOES-16 visible satellite imagery over the past 2-3
hours. The low-level wind flow pattern for the next 6 hours or so is
forecast to be complex, with a new non-tropical surface low having
recently formed about 100 nmi west of Key West, Florida. This
feature appears to have developed beneath an upper-level jet
entrance region ahead of an approaching cold front. The global,
regional, and even the convective-scale models are now showing the
center of Philippe moving general northward across the Straits of
Florida this evening and merging with the non-tropical low around
0000Z. After the merger over Florida Bay, the various models are in
good agreement on Philippe moving northeastward to
east-northeastward across extreme southern Florida or the Florida
Keys overnight as the cyclone is accelerated ahead of the
aforementioned frontal system and strong mid-/upper-level trough.
After reaching the northwestern Bahamas by 1200Z Sunday morning,
Philippe is forecast to accelerate further towards the northeast at
forward speeds of 30-35 kt, by Sunday afternoon and evening,
remaining well offshore of the Carolinas. By 36 hours, Philippe is
expected to pass about midway between Bermuda and the southeastern
United States, and gradually getting pulled north-northeastward up
the east side of a powerful baroclinic low that is forecast to
develop near Cape Hatteras and move northward near the U.S. east
coast. The NHC track guidance is in reasonable agreement on this
developing track scenario, and lies between the GFS model, which
takes Philippe across the Florida Keys, and the ECMWF model, which
moves the cyclone farther north over South Florida.

The vertical wind shear affecting Philippe is expected to remain
favorable for strengthening to occur for the next 24 hours, along
with an additional baroclinic boost from the aforementioned
upper-level jet maximum. By 36 hours, strong baroclinic forcing
associated with the approaching frontal system are forecast to
induce additional strengthening before the cyclone merges with
the frontal system and becomes an extratropical low by 48 hours.
Dissipation or absorption by a larger extratropical low is expected
by 72 hours when the system is located over the cold waters of the
North Atlantic.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Although the center of Philippe is now forecast to move across
the Florida Keys or extreme south Florida, most of the strongest
winds are expected to remain east and southeast of the center.
However, tropical-storm-force winds, mainly in gusts, could occur
in brief heavy squalls across the upper Florida Keys and southeast
Florida overnight. For that reason, a tropical storm watch remains
in effect for these areas.

2. Regardless of the exact track of Philippe, the primary threat
from this system will be heavy rainfall that can cause localized
flooding across portions of Cuba, the Florida Keys, and South
Florida.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 23.0N 82.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 26.0N 80.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 31.5N 75.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 36.6N 70.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 30/1800Z 42.0N 66.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 31/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[fci]

LOL, this storm is such a mess that the center will be roughly 30 miles from my location and we don’t even have watches or warnings. But some nice rain for my lawn before the rainy season ends.

[NDG]

Cayo Largo Cuba, pres sure of 1002 mb, maybe the pressure is more like around 1000mb.

Conditions at: MUCL observed 28 October 2017 20:52 UTC
Temperature: 27.0°C (81°F)
Dewpoint: 26.0°C (79°F) [RH = 94%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.59 inches Hg (1002.0 mb)
Winds: from the WSW (240 degrees) at 23 MPH (20 knots; 10.4 m/s)
gusting to 39 MPH (34 knots; 17.7 m/s)
Visibility: 4 miles (7 km)
Ceiling: 1800 feet AGL
Clouds: broken clouds at 1800 feet AGL
overcast cloud deck at 5000 feet AGL
Present Weather: -RA (light rain)

[Shell Mound]

I'm struggling to find evidence of a closed circulation at the surface on either radar or satellite. The system looks more like a broad surface trough (low) with gradient-induced gales than a tropical cyclone. It's similar to Nicole (2010) and especially Colin (2016). At best, there is a broad area of vorticity with little evidence of a fully closed, defined circulation. Notably, I see little convergence in and near the estimated location of the "center." Philippe also does not appear to be fully tropical, given its proximity to dry air and a non-tropical low. Baroclinic forcing seems to have taken over, and all I see is a sharp trough axis on GOES-16 loops. I'm not so sure that this deserves a name at this point, though of course the Hurricane Center is the final arbiter.

[StormTracker]

Likely to see TS Philippe at 5pm

AL, 18, 2017102818, , BEST, 0, 218N, 824W, 35, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 90, 0, 0, 1010, 250, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, EIGHTEEN, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 039,

You called it!

[Evil Jeremy]

This is a fun way to wrap up (hopefully) this season. A low stakes tropical mess that will bring some enjoyable showers through my area.

[AdamFirst]

Minor damage from earlier tornado warned storm reported

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/weather ... 95751.html

[tgenius]

Well appears the rain from this system is well west of Miami, as it appears after this squall of rain Miami will pretty much be in the clear rain wise for a good few hours at least.