ATL: PHILIPPE - Remnants - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Looking less and less tropical by the hour..

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Philippe may be transitioning to an extratropical system and merging with a baroclinic non-tropical low in the SE GOM. Looking like a hybrid storm similar to 2001's Gabrielle as it also had a lot of baroclinic forcing.

[floridasun78]

this type system you see late oct not looking good system like aug storms

[weathaguyry]

It's looking like it's going to be a hefty storm for us in the Northeast, we're under a High Wind Watch, and a Flash Flood Watch, is it a coincidence that this on the 5 year anniversary of Sandy, or not?

[idaknowman]

Since South Florida is now in the cone, why isn't there a tropical storm Warning?

[Alyono]

Since South Florida is now in the cone, why isn't there a tropical storm Warning?

see the thread about what the cone means

[gatorcane]

The local news showed a tornado touching down live in West Palm. THe Kravis cam picked it up as it was forming.

[floridasun78]

look dry air could over south fl after midnight look rain going move to east of south fl

[beoumont]

It's looking like it's going to be a hefty storm for us in the Northeast, we're under a High Wind Watch, and a Flash Flood Watch, is it a coincidence that this on the 5 year anniversary of Sandy, or not?

Not a coincidence. The event is preordained, in the book of revolutions.

In actuality, all (organized) weather systems and events are a coincidence of meteorological factors.

[Shell Mound]

I'm struggling to find evidence of a closed circulation at the surface on either radar or satellite. The system looks more like a broad surface trough (low) with gradient-induced gales than a tropical cyclone. It's similar to Nicole (2010) and especially Colin (2016). At best, there is a broad area of vorticity with little evidence of a fully closed, defined circulation. Notably, I see little convergence in and near the estimated location of the "center." Philippe also does not appear to be fully tropical, given its proximity to dry air and a non-tropical low. Baroclinic forcing seems to have taken over, and all I see is a sharp trough axis on GOES-16 loops. I'm not so sure that this deserves a name at this point, though of course the Hurricane Center is the final arbiter.

Just to illustrate what I am referring to, since some people prefer visuals or are visually oriented:



Again, these are but my own interpretations of the situation, not official. Just my own thoughts!

Not trying to sound superior, just illustrating—the mods decide

[floridasun78]

I'm struggling to find evidence of a closed circulation at the surface on either radar or satellite. The system looks more like a broad surface trough (low) with gradient-induced gales than a tropical cyclone. It's similar to Nicole (2010) and especially Colin (2016). At best, there is a broad area of vorticity with little evidence of a fully closed, defined circulation. Notably, I see little convergence in and near the estimated location of the "center." Philippe also does not appear to be fully tropical, given its proximity to dry air and a non-tropical low. Baroclinic forcing seems to have taken over, and all I see is a sharp trough axis on GOES-16 loops. I'm not so sure that this deserves a name at this point, though of course the Hurricane Center is the final arbiter.

Just to illustrate what I am referring to, since some people prefer visuals or are visually oriented:



Again, these are but my own interpretations of the situation, not official. Just my own thoughts!

Not trying to sound superior, just illustrating—the mods decide

i do see dry air getting pull west of ts my thinking few hour rain stop in south fl and Bahamas could see stormy night

[jlauderdal]

Just lost power, almost no wind but heavy rain

[Aric Dunn]

THe reformed circ is clearly defined wnw/nw of Key west on radar.

[floridasun78]

Just lost power, almost no wind but heavy rain

hope come back soon

[jlauderdal]

Just lost power, almost no wind but heavy rain

hope come back soon

Thanks...no lightning, grid is weak from irma, rain has stopped, i expect restoration by 10.

[Bocadude85]

A wind gust to 75mph was reported in West Palm, most likely associated with a tornado.

SOUTH FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT MESONET SITE FHCHS NEAR INTERSECTION OF FOREST HILL BLVD AND INTERSTATE 95 MEASURED A WIND GUST TO 75 MPH. LIKELY ASSOCIATED WIT (MFL)

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html

[fci]

The local news showed a tornado touching down live in West Palm. THe Kravis cam picked it up as it was forming.

Saw that.
It was incredible seeing it form LIVE

[Aric Dunn]

The local news showed a tornado touching down live in West Palm. THe Kravis cam picked it up as it was forming.

Saw that.
It was incredible seeing it form LIVE

with the surface low/circ deepening much farther north, wsw of marco island the tornado threat should increase over florida now.

[Aric Dunn]

Though I would not call it tropical at this point... buuuttt...

[gatorcane]

Yeah easy to see the low on radar WNW of Key West heading ENE. Seems further north than models had it.