ATL: PHILIPPE - Models

[Frank2]

True, but 1001 is believable but not the 984, even with the upper high.

[AutoPenalti]

True, but 1001 is believable but not the 984, even with the upper high.

Models haven’t done too well with intensity except in one case with HWRF, who would’ve expected Maria or Irma to reach the categories they reached... this season has been notorious for powerful canes in favorable conditions so I wouldn’t put it to bed just yet.

[floridasun78]

here you see last few models runs show now closer to south fl http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.php?storm=18&year=2017

[gatorcane]

06Z GFS

[gatorcane]

06Z GFS ensembles have shifted west:

[chaser1]

The ensemble members all appear to be a tad slow and a bit too far west. Now that a better defined center has been identified I think we'll see these all shift east and north substantially

[Bocadude85]

The ensemble members all appear to be a tad slow and a bit too far west. Now that a better defined center has been identified I think we'll see these all shift east and north substantially

12z GFS has a landfall in the mid-upper Keys and is 3mb stronger just off the coast of SE Fla.

[Alyono]

the models are keeping this distinct until after it hits New England or Canada

[NDG]

12z HWRF so far has a better handle on TD 18 than the 12z GFS, it forecasted the formation of the LLC like we saw this morning further east quite nicely.

[chaser1]

The ensemble members all appear to be a tad slow and a bit too far west. Now that a better defined center has been identified I think we'll see these all shift east and north substantially

12z GFS has a landfall in the mid-upper Keys and is 3mb stronger just off the coast of SE Fla.

Yep, was surprised to see that. In spite of the anticipated weak "north quadrant" wind field, I'd still think that NHC might have to begrudgingly change a couple of their watches, to warnings if satellite verifies any near term northward motion

[chaser1]

the models are keeping this distinct until after it hits New England or Canada

Looks like they're gonna get one decent little Nor'easter...... er, "South'easter that is

[CrazyC83]

It seems most models actually keep this distinct all the way in now?

[Alyono]

EC does not. it merges it well before New England

[Alyono]

GFS a hot mess here. Now it has massive convective feedback for the Hatteras low and has it looking semi-tropical. Philippe appears much weaker this time around as the convective feedback is focused on the other system

[Alyono]

ECMWF has a 972mb hurricane hitting Cape Cod

One problem, it has the center east of Florida at 6Z

[xironman]

HRRR Shows a hybrid Philippe