WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 29W

[euro6208]

95W INVEST 171025 0000 11.2N 114.5E WPAC 15 NA

[euro6208]

EURO shows very little development after showing a typhoon for the past few runs. Through the southern tip of Vietnam. There it strengthens it to 999 mb before making it's second landfall over Thailand. This looks to be promising once it reaches the Bay of Bengal.

[euro6208]

Interestingly, this one is not what the GFS is developing. It develops a system further south and west 5-6 days from now.

[euro6208]

EURO again shows a typhoon. It's going to be a wet Halloween and All Soul's Day for our asian friends.

[doomhaMwx]

Well, even Tropical Storms can cause heavy damage in that part of SE Asia...

I'm even more concerned about 95W's future, or whichever system the models are developing, when it enters the NIO basin... GFS and ECMWF are already hinting further intensification there...
Oct and Nov are two of the few months when powerful cyclones (Category 4's and 5's) in that basin occur, with the the Bay of Bengal seeing most of its powerful Oct-Nov systems originating from this area—southern SCS, Gulf of Thailand, and Andaman Sea... Nothing's certain yet at this time, but definitely something to keep an eye on...(yeah, I already said this on another thread )




95W INVEST 171025 0600 11.1N 113.8E WPAC 15 1010

[euro6208]

WDPN33 PGTW 250900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 27W (SAOLA)
WARNING NR 23//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 27W (SAOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 385 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A POORLY ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED TO
THE SOUTH OF A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL LOOP AND A 250526Z 37GHZ SSMI MICROWAVE
IMAGE. THE MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO
A LLCC THAT IS ELONGATED AND LACKS DEFINITIVE ORGANIZATION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS WHICH IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY
ABOVE MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY OF ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 TO 45
KTS) FROM PGTW AND RJTD, AND IS SUPPORTED BOTH BY A SATCON ESTIMATE
OF 43 KNOTS AND A 250055Z METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING AN AREA OF 35
TO 40 KNOT WIND BARBS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH MODERATE (15-
20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND HIGH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (31 CELSIUS). THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE
WEAK OUTFLOW BOTH EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LOCATED TO THE EAST CONTINUES TO INTRODUCE SUBSIDENCE TO THE AREA.
TS SAOLA IS TRACKING TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE TRACK HAS SHIFTED MORE NORTHERLY IN THE PAST SIX
HOURS AS AN EXTENSION OF THE STR SHIFTS EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 27W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWEST FOR THE
NEXT 48 HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. AFTER
TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS AND BEGIN RECURVING,
ESTABLISHING A NORTHEAST TRACK DIRECTION BY TAU 72. THE SYSTEM WILL
MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 12 AS IT CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE AND
CONSOLIDATE. WEAK OUTFLOW CONDITIONS WILL PREVENT RAPID
INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, A BRIEF PERIOD OF
INTENSIFICATION WILL OCCUR AS OUTFLOW CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVED
THROUGH INTERACTION WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER
TAU 48, THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE
EXACT TIME AND SHARPNESS OF THE TURN TO THE NORTHEAST. THE
PRINCIPLE OUTLIERS ARE NAVGEM, RECURVING TO THE WEST OF OKINAWA,
AND COAMPS-TC, TRACKING CONSIDERABLY FARTHER EAST THAN THE REST OF
THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE STEERING STR, THE
COAMPS-TC TRACK SCENARIO IS CONSIDERED UNLIKELY. THERE IS OVERALL
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THROUGH TAU 48, THEN LOW
CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER DUE TO THE HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS SAOLA WILL RAPIDLY ACCELERATE TO THE
NORTHEAST. ALSO, AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT
WITH AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, BRINGING INCREASING VWS
AND DECREASING SSTS, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION (ET) BY TAU 96. TS 27W IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION PRIOR TO TAU 120, BECOMING A COLD CORE LOW
WITH AN EXPANSIVE GALE FORCE WIND FIELD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN FAIR AGREEMENT AS TO THE TRACK DIRECTION BUT POOR AGREEMENT WITH
THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM. THE JTWC TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE
CONSENSUS WITH GREATER SPEED, HOWEVER, THE HIGH DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY LENDS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST.//
NNNN

[mrbagyo]

Could be a Gay (1989) type system based on current NWP solutions

[euro6208]

NAVGEM still insisting on a northward track across the SCS.

[euro6208]

GFS

[euro6208]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.8N
111.8E, APPROXIMATELY 428 NM WEST OF PUERTO PRINCESA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN UNORGANIZED AND ILL
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 260216Z AMSU METOP-A 89GZ
IMAGE SHOWS AN ELONGATED LLCC WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION
LOCATED IN THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A
POOR ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG (20-30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WITH WEAK OUTFLOW. AT THIS TIME GLOBAL MODELS ARE HAVING A
DIFFICULT TIME ANALYZING THE DISTURANCE OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

[doomhaMwx]

Weak and disorganized, but organization and strengthening is expected to occur next week...

95W INVEST 171027 0600 8.2N 112.8E WPAC 15 1010

[doomhaMwx]

May pass near/over the Mekong Delta region in southern Vietnam early or mid next week as it makes its way towards the Gulf of Thailand,
with landfall over Southern or Western Thailand expected to occur mid or late next week...
On the longer range, once over the NIO basin, ECMWF appears to be more westerly in track, compared to GFS which hints of a possible poleward turn...

[euro6208]

Remains LOW.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.8N 111.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8N 111E, APPROXIMATELY 466 NM
SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO PRINCESA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN UNORGANIZED AND ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 270156Z 89GZ AMSU IMAGE SHOWS AN ILL-DEFINED LLCC
WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION LOCATED IN THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN ENVIRONMENT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE (15-20
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE
TO POORLY RESOLVE THE CIRCULATION WITH THE MOST LIKELY TRACK
DRIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[euro6208]

NAVGEM



EURO



GFS has faster development. Has a TS for southern Vietnam.

[galaxy401]

How is that area prepared for typhoons? Very unusual location for one to hit.

[ManilaTC]

May pass near/over the Mekong Delta region in southern Vietnam early or mid next week as it makes its way towards the Gulf of Thailand,
with landfall over Southern or Western Thailand expected to occur mid or late next week...
On the longer range, once over the NIO basin, ECMWF appears to be more westerly in track, compared to GFS which hints of a possible poleward turn...

Can i ask for the link of this one? thanks

[euro6208]

Looks like JTWC dropped this in their discussion.

[doomhaMwx]

I wonder if the last few runs of the ECMWF are struggling with 95W... The latest(00Z) does not even have it entering the BoB, but has it lingering around Southern Thailand for a few days before moving north towards Bangkok... Seems fishy to me...
Not much change with the GFS solution, which I'm still favoring (though I'm more of a ECMWF guy )...